Geopolitical Tensions Spark Oil Surge, Weighing on Global Equities

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Macro Overview

Global equity markets started the week on a negative note as escalating geopolitical tensions fueled a sharp rise in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. The S&P 500 (IVV) declined 0.73%, while international stocks saw steeper losses, with Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) falling 1.04% and Emerging Markets (EEM) dropping 3.59%. In contrast, Broad Commodities (DJP) rallied 2.11%, driven by the energy spike. Fixed income markets also retreated, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) down 0.38% as Treasury yields climbed.

U.S. Size & Style

A distinct rotation from growth to value characterized U.S. equity style performance amid the risk-off sentiment. Large Growth (IVW) underperformed significantly with a 1.54% loss, while Large Value (IVE) managed a 0.17% gain. This trend was consistent across the capitalization spectrum, as Small Value (IJS) also ended in positive territory, up 0.13%. Meanwhile, growth-oriented mid and small-cap segments posted declines of around 1.00%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) 0.17% 1.34% 6.76% 9.70% 18.62%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.73% 1.26% 9.43% 10.46% 21.57%
Large Growth (IVW) -1.54% 1.17% 11.80% 10.90% 23.76%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.05% 0.09% 5.89% 12.01% 16.83%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.57% -0.81% 5.92% 14.55% 20.15%
Mid Growth (IJK) -1.06% -1.66% 5.85% 16.79% 23.12%
Small Value (IJS) 0.13% 0.19% 9.10% 19.55% 32.32%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.39% 1.22% 10.33% 21.20% 30.20%
Small Growth (IJT) -1.00% 2.24% 11.35% 22.61% 28.00%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

The energy sector was the clear outperformer, propelled by a surge in crude prices due to heightened conflict in the Middle East. The Energy (XLE) sector jumped 3.01%, standing in stark contrast to the rest of the market. Defensive areas such as Utilities (XLU) and Financials (XLF) also posted modest gains. Technology (XLK) was the session’s biggest laggard, falling 2.42% following a sharp sell-off in semiconductor stocks.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY) -0.77% 1.26% 9.47% 10.45% 21.46%
Energy (XLE) 3.01% -0.71% 0.06% 28.64% 31.25%
Utilities (XLU) 0.68% 3.33% -0.82% 8.52% 13.98%
Financials (XLF) 0.65% 5.48% 8.91% 3.25% 9.15%
Consumer Staples (XLP) 0.56% -0.74% 4.45% 10.27% 7.59%
Real Estate (XLRE) 0.56% -0.60% 4.80% 12.49% 11.21%
Health Care (XLV) 0.35% 5.40% 9.56% 5.16% 21.47%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.04% 0.21% -2.56% -4.65% 6.59%
Materials (XLB) -0.61% -2.70% -2.72% 12.44% 12.53%
Industrials (XLI) -0.85% 2.63% 4.68% 16.89% 21.62%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.02% -0.28% 2.07% -2.43% 5.62%
Technology (XLK) -2.42% -1.79% 24.64% 26.22% 42.44%

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Global Thematic

The day’s thematic performance was heavily influenced by the slump in technology and the rally in energy. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) was the worst performer, plunging 9.11% amid broad weakness in chipmakers. Other technology-focused funds, including those centered on robotics and artificial intelligence like Themes Humanoid Robotics ETF (BOTT), also saw significant declines. Conversely, MLP-related funds such as ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB) advanced 2.45%, benefiting from the strength in the energy complex.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day
Leaders
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) 4.68%
Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) 3.58%
ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB) 2.45%
WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) 2.16%
ETRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure Index ETN Series B (MLPB) 2.08%
Laggards
Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) -9.11%
Themes Humanoid Robotics ETF (BOTT) -6.48%
Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) -5.97%
VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS) -5.97%
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) -5.82%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International markets faced widespread selling pressure, with Asian technology hubs hit particularly hard. South Korea (EWY) experienced an exceptionally sharp decline of 8.45%, triggered by a steep drop in a major domestic chipmaker that had ripple effects across the global semiconductor industry. This weakness contributed to a 4.06% loss for Taiwan (EWT) and a 1.94% drop for Japan (EWJ). Bucking the trend, Canada (EWC) edged higher by 0.14%, likely supported by its significant energy sector exposure.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) -1.04% -0.15% 2.00% 9.20% 20.04%
Australia (EWA) -0.35% -1.60% -4.64% 9.78% 10.95%
Canada (EWC) 0.14% 0.42% 3.05% 9.41% 29.06%
France (EWQ) -0.47% -1.55% -0.38% 2.01% 6.58%
Germany (EWG) -0.63% -0.62% 0.26% -1.06% -0.94%
Hong Kong (EWH) -0.93% -1.63% -8.76% 1.84% 11.21%
Japan (EWJ) -1.94% 0.54% 5.51% 15.45% 33.70%
Netherlands (EWN) -1.50% -2.86% 7.50% 18.78% 29.26%
South Korea (EWY) -8.45% -14.91% 18.97% 72.82% 136.83%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.81% 1.28% 3.69% 5.94% 16.13%
U.K. (EWU) -0.52% -0.28% -1.74% 6.93% 20.09%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) -3.59% -4.50% 6.15% 18.49% 36.26%
Brazil (EWZ) -1.50% 1.79% -13.95% 12.46% 34.44%
China (MCHI) -1.13% -3.56% -7.80% -11.98% -2.59%
India (INDA) -1.03% 0.95% -1.13% -9.73% -11.10%
Indonesia (EIDO) 1.10% -1.18% -24.58% -34.79% -31.10%
Malaysia (EWM) 0.26% -0.30% -2.17% 2.58% 18.41%
Mexico (EWW) -0.95% -4.12% -5.13% 8.52% 27.55%
South Africa (EZA) -1.66% -4.16% -11.50% -6.85% 27.62%
Taiwan (EWT) -4.06% -0.72% 30.18% 60.37% 82.80%
Thailand (THD) -0.25% -0.68% 2.40% 24.05% 44.59%

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Fixed Income

Bonds sold off as rising oil prices and hawkish commentary from a Federal Reserve official stoked inflation fears, pushing Treasury yields higher. The core U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) fell 0.38%, with longer-duration funds seeing more pronounced losses. Riskier segments of the bond market also weakened, as seen in the 0.24% decline for High Yield (HYG). Convertible bonds, which have equity-like characteristics, were hit particularly hard, with Convertible (CWB) falling 1.31%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV) -0.17% -0.14% -0.13% 0.28% 3.05%
Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.34% -0.66% -0.63% 0.01% 3.95%
Core (AGG) -0.38% -0.73% -0.83% -0.21% 3.67%
Long-Term (BLV) -0.61% -1.88% -1.79% -1.21% 3.49%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL) 0.00% 0.28% 0.90% 1.88% 3.82%
Short-Term (SPTS) -0.10% -0.01% 0.12% 0.55% 3.03%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.20% -0.59% -0.44% 0.80% 3.09%
Intermediate (SPTI) -0.28% -0.35% -0.97% -0.66% 2.60%
Long-Term (SPTL) -0.51% -1.43% -1.90% -1.42% 2.92%
Specialty
Bank Loans (BKLN) 0.00% 0.55% 1.16% 0.36% 3.78%
High Yield (HYG) -0.24% -0.06% 0.57% 1.59% 5.36%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.27% -0.43% -0.37% 0.18% 3.89%
Mortgage Backed (MBB) -0.49% -0.83% -0.99% 0.03% 4.79%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.62% -1.86% -0.73% 0.49% 2.62%
Convertible (CWB) -1.31% -2.74% 6.48% 17.26% 26.20%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX) -0.40% -0.54% 0.39% 0.48% 1.94%
Emerging Local (EMLC) -0.63% 0.06% -0.38% 1.46% 7.49%
International Local (IGOV) -0.64% -2.21% -2.66% -2.59% -2.77%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.64% -0.60% 0.59% 1.67% 9.38%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB) -0.06% 0.05% 0.32% 0.86% 2.38%
Intermediate (MUB) -0.10% 0.13% 0.71% 1.41% 6.17%
Long-Term (MLN) -0.17% 0.56% 1.20% 2.63% 9.61%
High Yield (HYD) -0.20% -0.01% 1.34% 2.29% 7.61%

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Commodities

Energy commodities surged dramatically on Monday due to a significant escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for global oil trade. Brent Crude (BNO) jumped 9.13% and WTI Crude (USO) gained 8.36%. In contrast, precious metals sold off as rising Treasury yields increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Gold (GLD) declined 2.62%, while Silver (SLV) dropped 3.32%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) 2.11% 0.13% -2.56% 22.44% 32.25%
Agriculture
Soybeans (SOYB) 0.64% 4.97% 4.24% 15.87% 18.03%
Corn (CORN) 0.40% 4.46% -1.24% -1.02% 1.62%
Broad (DBA) -0.18% 5.64% 2.93% 8.62% 11.42%
Wheat (WEAT) -0.25% 5.91% 6.67% 18.48% 5.16%
Sugar (CANE) -0.61% 3.83% 5.29% -0.05% -11.65%
Energy
Brent Crude (BNO) 9.13% -3.81% -6.26% 62.43% 48.63%
WTI Crude (USO) 8.36% -6.09% -8.31% 70.32% 52.40%
Broad (DBE) 6.87% -1.18% -0.36% 66.08% 53.12%
Natural Gas (UNG) -2.17% -8.63% -2.90% -15.42% -30.50%
Industrial Metals
Broad (DBB) 0.12% -4.86% -1.25% 6.71% 31.17%
Copper (CPER) -0.13% -4.07% 3.13% 8.52% 9.94%
Precious Metals
Palladium (PALL) -1.47% -2.15% -20.72% -21.83% 2.34%
Platinum (PPLT) -1.69% -6.56% -22.79% -22.12% 13.26%
Gold (GLD) -2.62% -5.02% -15.67% -7.36% 18.76%
Broad (DBP) -2.76% -7.09% -17.87% -10.64% 21.63%
Silver (SLV) -3.32% -14.90% -23.61% -19.03% 48.90%

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Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrencies traded lower along with other risk assets as investors digested geopolitical developments and inflation concerns. The broad Multi-Coin (NCIQ) index fell 2.59% for the session. Bitcoin (IBIT) saw a decline of 2.79%, while other major digital assets like Solana (SOLZ) also retreated. The move reflected a broader aversion to speculative assets in favor of energy-related plays.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -3.47% 12.53% -11.15% -40.30% -58.08%
XRP (XRP) -3.32% -5.69% -21.36% -41.86%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -2.79% -2.28% -15.32% -29.06% -47.60%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -2.59% -1.06% -16.53% -31.88% -49.03%
Ethereum (ETHA) -1.18% 6.36% -21.72% -40.39% -41.36%

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What to Watch Today

Investors will be closely watching a packed economic and policy calendar on Tuesday. The main event will be the release of the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI data, which will be critical for gauging inflationary pressures. Additionally, the second-quarter earnings season kicks off with reports from major financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. The day will also feature numerous appearances by Federal Reserve officials, highlighted by Chair Kevin Warsh’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to a House committee.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.