“No Landing” Narratives Surge: Strong Jobs Report Buffets Fixed Income, Lifts Cyclicals

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Macro Overview

On February 11, 2026, global markets exhibited a distinct divergence as a surprisingly robust January jobs report (130k actual vs 70k expected) forced a repricing of Fed rate expectations. U.S. Large Caps (IVV) finished nearly flat (-0.01%), but cyclicals surged on the promise of a “no landing” economic scenario. International markets were significantly more buoyant, with Emerging Markets (EEM) gaining 1.58% and Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) up 0.67%. In the commodities space (DJP), Precious Metals dominated, with Silver posting a daily gain of over 4%. Conversely, the yield-sensitive Fixed Income (AGG) sector fell -0.23%, as longer-dated government bonds saw significant selling pressure.

U.S. Size & Style

Large-cap value was the relative winner in the style box today, as Large Value (IVE) climbed 0.21%. In contrast, Small Value (IJS) was the day’s laggard at -0.25%, highlighting a preference for quality in a rising-rate environment. From a technical perspective, the Large Growth (IVW) segment is showing signs of near-term fatigue, trading -1.43% below its 50-day SMA despite a strong 16.05% one-year return. Mid Caps (IJH) maintained a healthy buffer, sitting 10.48% above their 200-day SMA even after a -0.24% daily dip.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) 0.21% 2.12% 5.61% 4.69% 15.09%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.01% -0.29% 1.66% 1.48% 15.74%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.14% 3.80% 8.93% 8.43% 10.99%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.15% 3.75% 11.48% 8.70% 13.87%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.19% 4.27% 10.74% 9.69% 14.31%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.20% 3.48% 8.97% 8.26% 13.37%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.21% -2.43% -1.74% -1.32% 16.05%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.24% 3.59% 10.13% 8.47% 13.77%
Small Value (IJS) -0.25% 4.66% 12.69% 10.83% 17.39%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Energy (XLE) was the standout leader, vaulting 2.61% as strong economic data bolstered demand outlooks. This strength has pushed Energy into overbought territory with a staggering 79.30 RSI, matched by Materials (XLB) at 75.35 and Industrials (XLI) at 75.10. At the bottom of the list, Financials (XLF) sank -1.51%, potentially reacting to concerns about the impact of persistent rates on loan growth. Breadth remains exceptional in the Materials sector, where 100% of constituents are currently trading above their 200-day moving average.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Energy (XLE) 2.61% 17.81% 21.15% 22.97% 24.55%
Consumer Staples (XLP) 1.43% 11.55% 15.09% 13.80% 12.66%
Materials (XLB) 1.34% 11.11% 23.14% 18.24% 22.51%
Utilities (XLU) 0.88% 4.89% 0.15% 4.45% 15.52%
Health Care (XLV) 0.59% -0.67% 4.14% 0.94% 8.87%
Industrials (XLI) 0.53% 7.97% 13.74% 12.71% 27.85%
Technology (XLK) 0.29% -2.18% -2.27% -0.69% 21.74%
S&P 500 (SPY) -0.02% -0.30% 1.61% 1.47% 15.65%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.09% 5.68% 3.75% 6.07% 4.73%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.48% -5.35% -1.49% -1.38% 6.14%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.71% -0.99% 2.55% -0.83% 14.30%
Financials (XLF) -1.51% -5.37% -0.54% -3.71% 3.74%

Global Thematic

Resource extraction themes dominated the thematic landscape, with Sprott Nickel Miners (NIKL) leading all ETFs with a 7.60% daily gain. Junior miners were also in high demand, as SGDJ (+4.95%) and GDXJ (+3.55%) soared alongside precious metals prices. In contrast, the JEDI Drone and Modern Warfare ETF dropped nearly 5%, marking it as the day’s primary laggard. Tech-heavy themes like Fintech (FINX) and Cloud Computing (WCLD) also underperformed, falling more than 3.5% as investors shifted toward hard assets.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change
Daily Leaders
Sprott Nickel Miners ETF (NIKL) 7.60%
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) 4.95%
Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) 4.79%
VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) 3.58%
VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) 3.55%
Daily Laggards
Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI) -4.91%
First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy (CRPT) -4.46%
Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) -3.78%
ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) -3.61%
WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) -3.53%

Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed and emerging markets generally outperformed the U.S. today, led by a parabolic 4.94% move in South Korea (EWY), which now boasts a 142.55% one-year return. Taiwan (EWT) also showed significant momentum, gaining 2.67% and reaching a 52-week high with an RSI of 71.91. Emerging Markets overall (EEM) gained 1.58%, maintaining a technical stance 18.06% above the 200-day SMA, while only Germany (EWG) and Canada (EWC) saw minor daily pullbacks.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets
South Korea (EWY) 4.94% 19.94% 40.17% 34.33% 142.55%
Australia (EWA) 2.30% 11.58% 11.92% 11.87% 20.84%
U.K. (EWU) 1.48% 5.89% 10.77% 7.84% 35.33%
Japan (EWJ) 0.93% 11.06% 16.45% 16.39% 43.03%
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) 0.67% 6.20% 11.31% 9.28% 34.97%
Hong Kong (EWH) 0.55% 6.63% 7.68% 12.00% 55.11%
France (EWQ) 0.53% 2.62% 5.84% 4.65% 23.47%
Netherlands (EWN) -0.02% 4.40% 11.49% 10.57% 40.51%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.30% 4.39% 9.66% 5.47% 28.76%
Germany (EWG) -0.38% 1.47% 6.84% 3.65% 26.49%
Canada (EWC) -0.25% 3.57% 11.85% 4.91% 36.60%
Emerging Markets
Taiwan (EWT) 2.67% 11.27% 17.34% 15.46% 46.10%
Brazil (EWZ) 2.19% 18.45% 21.13% 23.26% 60.16%
Indonesia (EIDO) 1.92% -4.84% -1.00% -3.26% 8.42%
Emerging (EEM) 1.58% 7.74% 12.38% 12.52% 44.76%
South Africa (EZA) 1.49% 8.26% 21.35% 11.24% 78.91%
Thailand (THD) 1.32% 15.88% 16.19% 16.19% 27.17%
Malaysia (EWM) 0.98% 8.66% 13.73% 9.58% 29.70%
Mexico (EWW) 0.27% 13.57% 18.65% 16.40% 63.34%
China (MCHI) -0.10% -0.47% -2.85% 3.10% 25.25%
India (INDA) -0.39% 0.67% -2.21% -0.96% 6.76%

Fixed Income

Rising yields following the strong labor report put downward pressure on duration, with the Government Long ETF (SPTL) dropping -0.48%. Short-term fixed income assets were relatively insulated, as Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) gained 0.02%. High-yield assets like Preferred Stock (PFF) and Bank Loans (BKLN) remained in positive territory, while local currency emerging debt (EMLC) showed resilience with a 0.11% gain. Credit spreads appear stable, though total return for long-dated core benchmarks remains flat over the 3-month horizon.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV) -0.11% 0.41% 0.95% 0.39% 5.96%
Core (AGG) -0.23% 0.39% 0.75% 0.67% 7.14%
Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.17% 0.44% 0.83% 0.72% 7.36%
Long-Term (BLV) -0.28% 0.53% -0.14% 1.21% 6.29%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL) 0.02% 0.30% 0.93% 0.40% 4.09%
Short-Term (SPTS) -0.10% 0.35% 0.96% 0.31% 5.08%
Intermediate (SPTI) -0.24% 0.36% 0.61% 0.36% 7.17%
Long-Term (SPTL) -0.48% 0.54% -0.56% 1.19% 5.00%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.16% 0.57% 0.10% 0.82% 5.75%
Specialty
Preferred Stock (PFF) 0.19% 0.60% 2.65% 2.58% 6.40%
Bank Loans (BKLN) 0.05% -1.30% 0.18% -1.02% 5.47%
High Yield (HYG) -0.01% 0.28% 1.62% 0.74% 7.77%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.09% 0.45% 1.12% 0.57% 7.80%
Convertible (CWB) -0.10% 2.48% 3.25% 6.04% 19.77%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) -0.16% 0.24% 1.11% 0.85% 8.58%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX) 0.02% 0.54% 0.35% 1.00% 3.36%
International Local (IGOV) 0.16% 3.15% 2.83% 2.88% 12.12%
Emerging USD (EMB) 0.01% 1.08% 1.77% 1.16% 13.07%
Emerging Local (EMLC) 0.11% 2.91% 5.12% 3.07% 19.29%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB) 0.00% 0.50% 1.31% 0.75% 3.80%
High Yield (HYD) -0.06% -0.17% 1.16% 0.19% 2.51%
Intermediate (MUB) -0.12% 0.42% 1.07% 0.93% 4.44%
Long-Term (MLN) -0.17% 0.07% 0.22% 0.55% 2.53%

Commodities

Precious Metals led today’s commodities surge, with Silver (SLV) jumping 4.29% and reaching a 164% one-year return. Broad Commodities (DJP) also saw positive traction, gaining 0.63% on the day. Industrial metals remain in a long-term uptrend, with Copper (CPER) up 1.29% today and 27.42% for the year. Agriculture was the outlier in the hard asset space, as Broad-based Agriculture (DBA) saw only modest gains while Sugar (CANE) dropped -1.42%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Composite (DJP) 0.63% 7.38% 10.32% 10.29% 19.18%
Agriculture
Broad-based (DBA) 0.35% 0.16% 0.78% 1.18% -4.10%
Soybeans (SOYB) 0.17% 5.06% -0.47% 6.36% 4.40%
Corn (CORN) -0.06% -2.46% -3.11% -1.58% -12.79%
Wheat (WEAT) 1.02% 2.65% -2.66% 4.56% -18.12%
Sugar (CANE) -1.42% -6.66% -2.04% -7.43% -23.15%
Energy
Broad-based (DBE) 0.82% 11.59% 3.53% 12.45% 3.82%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) 1.10% 11.46% 8.48% 14.07% 0.79%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) 0.95% 12.21% 10.59% 16.17% 4.25%
Natural Gas (UNG) 1.57% 18.46% -15.38% 0.49% -33.69%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER) 1.29% 1.80% 17.42% 5.26% 27.42%
Broad-based (DBB) 1.21% 1.09% 14.14% 5.32% 29.45%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV) 4.29% 5.78% 64.82% 18.85% 164.00%
Platinum (PPLT) 2.24% -6.00% 34.43% 4.27% 115.49%
Broad-based (DBP) 1.87% 10.12% 29.30% 17.07% 84.33%
Gold (GLD) 1.13% 12.83% 23.10% 18.00% 74.89%
Palladium (PALL) 0.58% -6.16% 17.98% 7.30% 73.48%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets faced broad-based selling pressure today, with the Solana ETF (SOLZ) dropping -3.45% as the biggest laggard. Ethereum (ETHA) followed with a -2.96% daily decline, exacerbating a 36.40% one-month slide. Bitcoin (IBIT) was relatively more stable at -1.74%, though it remains more than 22% down for the year. Technical damage is evident across the space, with all major digital asset ETFs trading significantly below their 50-day moving averages.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -3.45% -41.48% -49.78% -36.20% N/A
Ethereum (ETHA) -2.96% -36.40% -43.25% -34.24% -24.90%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -1.90% -27.91% -36.82% -24.90% N/A
Bitcoin (IBIT) -1.74% -25.16% -34.38% -22.88% -29.24%
XRP -1.09% -33.72% N/A -24.61% N/A

What to Watch Today

In the wake of the robust employment data, market participants will be laser-focused on upcoming inflation prints to determine if the “higher-for-longer” rate narrative is fully cemented. The Treasury yield curve’s reaction to the jobs report suggests a definitive shift in investor sentiment regarding the Fed’s first move, placing additional weight on any speeches from central bank officials before the blackout period. Furthermore, the decoupling of international equities from domestic flat-lining bears watching, particularly as Asian markets like Taiwan and South Korea reach technical overbought extremes. Finally, the resilience of precious metals in the face of a strengthening economic outlook indicates a complex risk-hedging strategy currently at play among institutional investors.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.