Macro Overview
Market participation broadened significantly on February 4, as a powerful rotation away from overextended technology giants favored cyclical and value-oriented segments. While the S&P 500 (IVV) declined 0.47%, the weakness was concentrated in large-cap growth names following disappointing guidance from key semiconductor and software players. Conversely, domestic resilience was reflected in the strength of mid and small-cap value ETFs, which posted gains exceeding 2% on the day. Internationally, Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) climbed 1.03%, led by a surge in the U.K., while Emerging Markets (EEM) fell 1.34% due to pressure in Latin American equities. Broad commodities (DJP) remained supported by a 2.88% rally in silver, even as fixed income markets saw modest selling in long-duration assets as the 10-year yield ascended.
U.S. Size & Style
The performance gap between value and growth was stark today, with Mid Cap Value (IJJ) and Small Cap Value (IJS) leading the market with gains of 2.12% and 2.01%, respectively. Technically, Small Value (IJS) is approaching overbought territory with an RSI of 67.61, while Large Cap Growth (IVW) sank 1.79% as its RSI collapsed to 35.7. Breadth remains supportive for the value rotation, with 71.46% of small value constituents trading above their 50-day SMA, contrasting with just 50.72% for the large growth segment.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Value (IJJ) | 2.12% | 6.22% | 11.85% | 7.42% | 11.88% |
| Small Value (IJS) | 2.01% | 8.98% | 15.12% | 9.90% | 15.80% |
| Large Value (IVE) | 0.96% | 3.88% | 6.84% | 4.23% | 14.86% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | 0.86% | 6.57% | 11.45% | 7.62% | 11.11% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | 0.75% | 4.47% | 9.18% | 5.91% | 10.22% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.25% | 4.25% | 7.99% | 5.36% | 6.45% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.47% | 0.45% | 1.90% | 0.64% | 15.46% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.59% | 2.81% | 6.59% | 4.41% | 8.38% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -1.79% | -2.64% | -2.40% | -2.58% | 15.51% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
The Materials (XLB) and Energy (XLE) sectors surged over 2% today, driven by strong services sector data and a cyclical rebound. Materials (XLB) is now significantly overbought with an RSI of 77.56, while Consumer Staples (XLP) has pushed even higher to an RSI of 80.70. Conversely, Technology (XLK) was the day’s primary laggard, dropping 2.79% and falling 4.72% below its 50-day moving average. Industrials (XLI) hit a fresh 52-week high during the session, with 82.28% of its constituents trading above their 50-day SMA.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Materials (XLB) | 2.35% | 12.51% | 23.12% | 14.42% | 18.72% |
| Energy (XLE) | 2.25% | 15.73% | 22.21% | 18.16% | 21.27% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 1.59% | 2.67% | 2.37% | 2.75% | 3.69% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 1.30% | 11.97% | 15.40% | 11.99% | 13.67% |
| Health Care (XLV) | 1.25% | 0.33% | 7.99% | 0.79% | 7.97% |
| Financial (XLF) | 0.80% | -1.77% | 3.29% | -1.48% | 6.97% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 0.27% | 7.22% | 11.37% | 9.20% | 25.30% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.37% | -0.23% | -2.28% | 0.91% | 14.17% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.74% | 1.48% | 1.06% | 0.58% | 4.51% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.80% | -0.09% | 3.87% | -0.78% | 14.19% |
| Technology (XLK) | -2.79% | -4.28% | -5.88% | -4.06% | 20.33% |
Global Thematic
Clean energy and housing themes dominated the leaderboard today, while digital asset proxies and uranium miners faced aggressive selling. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) led the charge with a 4.52% gain, while the U.S. Homebuilders segment (XHB) jumped 3.39%. On the downside, the Bitcoin mining sector (WGMI) cratered 11.06% following a sharp drop in the underlying spot price, while the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) fell 6.91%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Thematic Leaders | |
| Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) | 4.52% |
| iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) | 3.47% |
| SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) | 3.39% |
| AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) | 3.36% |
| iShares Global Timber & Forestry ETF (WOOD) | 3.14% |
| Thematic Laggards | |
| CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) | -11.06% |
| Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) | -9.79% |
| iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF (IBLC) | -8.73% |
| Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) | -8.36% |
| Global X Uranium ETF (URA) | -6.91% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Global equity performance was bifurcated between developed stability and emerging market volatility. The U.K. (EWU) outperformed with a 1.93% gain, maintaining a strong overbought RSI of 71.24. Conversely, South Korea (EWY) fell 3.27% today, yet it remains up a staggering 126.31% on a 1-year basis. In emerging markets, Brazil (EWZ) and Mexico (EWW) faced significant headwinds, falling 2.79% and 1.96% respectively, while Thailand (THD) provided a bright spot with a 1.15% gain.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed ex-U.S. | |||||
| U.K. (EWU) | 1.93% | 5.83% | 13.71% | 6.98% | 37.72% |
| Canada (EWC) | 1.38% | 1.51% | 11.63% | 2.00% | 35.22% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | 1.03% | 4.88% | 10.77% | 5.99% | 33.07% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | 0.94% | 3.53% | 13.46% | 4.19% | 28.58% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 0.93% | 7.57% | 9.63% | 8.36% | 34.08% |
| Australia (EWA) | 0.82% | 7.10% | 9.19% | 8.25% | 18.14% |
| France (EWQ) | 0.74% | 1.59% | 6.04% | 2.31% | 22.53% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | 0.56% | 7.45% | 10.99% | 10.59% | 50.55% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.60% | 1.62% | 7.21% | 1.76% | 27.84% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -1.34% | 4.14% | 9.67% | 7.08% | 39.35% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -3.27% | 17.65% | 28.44% | 23.70% | 126.31% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Thailand (THD) | 1.15% | 6.91% | 9.51% | 7.34% | 14.98% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 1.14% | -5.42% | -2.17% | -4.87% | 0.80% |
| India (INDA) | 0.55% | -2.05% | -1.07% | -1.13% | 3.91% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | 0.24% | 7.55% | 15.31% | 7.79% | 28.98% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -0.78% | 6.60% | 27.03% | 7.53% | 76.94% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -0.99% | 5.22% | 8.96% | 7.27% | 37.73% |
| China (MCHI) | -1.24% | -3.10% | -2.67% | 0.40% | 25.07% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -1.34% | 4.55% | 9.18% | 7.48% | 39.49% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -1.96% | 10.85% | 19.91% | 11.38% | 59.85% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -2.79% | 14.84% | 22.86% | 16.40% | 53.26% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income markets exhibited defensive positioning as high-yield and long-duration assets retreated. Preferred stock (PFF) was the standout performer, gaining 0.32%, while the international USD space (BNDX) rose 0.14%. Pressure remains centered on the bank loan and convertible sectors, with Bank Loans (BKLN) down 0.34% and Convertibles (CWB) plunging 1.11% in tandem with the technology selloff. Taxable Core (AGG) saw a minor dip of 0.06% as intermediate rates adjusted to robust services sector growth.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.04% | 0.18% | 0.62% | 0.16% | 6.70% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 6.43% |
| Long-Term (BLV) | -0.17% | 0.08% | -1.19% | -0.10% | 4.91% |
| Short-Term (BSV) | 0.01% | 0.15% | 0.88% | 0.13% | 5.62% |
| Government | |||||
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.02% | 0.29% | 0.93% | 0.33% | 4.10% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.92% | 0.18% | 4.90% |
| Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.00% | -0.09% | 0.33% | -0.16% | 6.43% |
| Long-Term (SPTL) | -0.19% | -0.18% | -2.02% | -0.37% | 3.50% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.11% | 0.35% | -0.07% | 0.31% | 5.23% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | 0.32% | 1.11% | 3.12% | 2.12% | 6.13% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.03% | 0.21% | 1.12% | 0.24% | 7.35% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.05% | 0.41% | 1.02% | 0.33% | 8.00% |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.12% | 0.43% | 2.03% | 0.48% | 7.45% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.34% | -1.25% | 0.28% | -1.21% | 5.07% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -1.11% | 2.59% | 1.87% | 4.14% | 17.83% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.14% | 0.58% | 0.02% | 0.56% | 2.73% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.04% | 0.33% | 1.58% | 0.35% | 11.77% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | -0.08% | 1.97% | 5.61% | 2.21% | 18.20% |
| International Local (IGOV) | -0.26% | 1.61% | 2.27% | 1.46% | 10.49% |
| Municipals | |||||
| High Yield (HYD) | 0.04% | 0.05% | 1.22% | 0.13% | 2.39% |
| Short-Term (SUB) | 0.02% | 0.58% | 1.42% | 0.60% | 3.75% |
| Intermediate (MUB) | -0.01% | 0.61% | 1.17% | 0.74% | 4.14% |
| Long-Term (MLN) | -0.06% | -0.07% | 0.22% | 0.27% | 2.09% |
Commodities
Silver was the undisputed leader in the commodities space today, surging 2.88% and driving the Precious Metals Composite (DBP) 0.53% higher. Energy markets saw volatile trading, with Natural Gas (UNG) bouncing 3.70% despite a massive 21.15% drop on a 1-year basis. Industrial metals faced significant pressure as Copper (CPER) fell 3.18%, contributing to a 1.90% decline in the Base Metals index (DBB). Agriculture remained largely flat, with a 1.66% gain in soybeans offset by a 0.95% drop in sugar prices.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | 0.49% | 9.88% | 13.40% | 10.05% | 21.09% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 1.66% | 3.67% | -2.42% | 3.48% | -0.53% |
| Corn (CORN) | 0.12% | -1.36% | -2.69% | -1.92% | -13.70% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.16% | 0.59% | -0.07% | 0.74% | -3.96% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.34% | 3.00% | -5.29% | 3.15% | -19.06% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -0.95% | -2.40% | 1.69% | -4.15% | -19.63% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 3.70% | 11.61% | -3.37% | 9.79% | -21.15% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | 1.61% | 13.03% | 4.28% | 12.17% | 6.84% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 0.59% | 14.37% | 9.97% | 14.09% | 3.79% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | 0.56% | 12.21% | 5.41% | 11.77% | 5.75% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 0.53% | 12.94% | 8.27% | 12.61% | 0.48% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBB) | -1.90% | 2.96% | 12.55% | 3.27% | 28.06% |
| Copper (CPER) | -3.18% | 3.75% | 18.87% | 3.80% | 32.06% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Silver (SLV) | 2.88% | 20.43% | 85.26% | 22.91% | 170.98% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | 0.53% | 14.38% | 34.61% | 15.54% | 84.58% |
| Palladium (PALL) | 0.36% | 7.60% | 26.14% | 10.26% | 75.86% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.07% | 13.98% | 25.30% | 14.55% | 72.94% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -0.58% | 3.55% | 44.16% | 8.04% | 127.58% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced a brutal selloff today as rotation away from high-beta tech impacted the crypto ecosystem. Solana (SOLZ) led the declines with an 8.35% plunge, while Ethereum (ETHA) dropped 5.77%, extending its 3-month loss to 32.70%. Bitcoin (IBIT) was relatively more resilient but still fell 4.00% on the day. The multi-coin segment (NCIQ) declined 4.26%, reflecting broad-based liquidation across the asset class.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | -8.35% | -29.61% | -40.36% | -25.74% | — |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -5.77% | -30.70% | -32.70% | -27.15% | -21.12% |
| XRP (XRP) | -4.93% | -22.61% | — | -16.28% | — |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -4.26% | -20.74% | -29.47% | -18.06% | — |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -4.00% | -18.39% | -27.30% | -16.27% | -25.94% |
What to Watch Today
Market attention shifts toward a critical batch of central bank decisions and labor market data scheduled for Thursday, February 5. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are set to announce interest rate decisions, with investors closely monitoring for any pivot toward a more dovish stance following recent inflation cooling. Domestically, the release of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the JOLTS Job Openings report for December will provide fresh clues on the health of the labor market. Furthermore, the final quarterly results from mega-cap retail and Amazon will be scrutinized to determine if the tech-to-value rotation has further room to run in the current earnings cycle.
