Oil Surges and Tech Slips as AI Spending Questioned

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities retreated modestly as the S&P 500 (IVV) fell 0.42%, pressured by a sharp pullback in technology names, while Developed ex-U.S. markets via (EFA) declined a similar 0.39%. Emerging Markets (EEM) underperformed with a 1.89% drop, dragged lower by weakness in South Korea and Taiwan. Fixed income provided a ballast, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) gaining 0.34% as yields eased. The clear outlier of the session was Broad Commodities (DJP), up 0.54% on the day and now 38.82% YTD, powered by a sharp rally in energy following reports of a potential Strait of Hormuz disruption and Gulf storm-related production shut-ins.

U.S. Size & Style

Large Growth (IVW) led declines among size and style segments, falling 1.23% as semiconductor and mega-cap technology weakness weighed on growth-tilted portfolios. In contrast, Large Value (IVE) advanced 0.61%, benefiting from strength in energy and staples exposure. Mid Value (IJJ) also outperformed with a 0.75% gain, while small-cap segments were mixed but broadly positive, with Small Value (IJS) up 0.44%. RSI readings across small-cap value and growth (37-39) remain near oversold territory, with fewer than 30% of constituents trading above their 50-day moving averages across most small and mid-cap funds, reflecting continued technical softness beneath the large-cap surface.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.61%-0.98%1.84%10.76%13.20%
Large Cap (IVV)-0.42%1.34%4.07%14.41%16.27%
Large Growth (IVW)-1.23%3.15%5.85%17.21%18.55%
Mid Value (IJJ)0.75%-4.10%-2.42%7.71%9.14%
Mid Cap (IJH)0.37%-2.79%-1.97%11.53%12.41%
Mid Growth (IJK)-0.08%-1.71%-1.71%14.92%15.35%
Small Value (IJS)0.44%-4.37%-1.90%15.10%18.27%
Small Cap (IJR)0.17%-4.46%-4.09%15.20%16.57%
Small Growth (IJT)-0.09%-4.56%-6.41%14.97%14.71%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Energy (XLE) was the standout performer, climbing 2.97% as crude prices jumped on geopolitical supply concerns, pushing its RSI to 63 with 67% of constituents above their 50-day average. Consumer Staples (XLP) followed with a 2.11% gain, suggesting a defensive rotation alongside the commodity-driven move. Technology (XLK) was the session’s weakest sector, down 1.79% after reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue fell short of prior guidance, pressuring semiconductor and AI-infrastructure-linked names broadly. Despite the daily decline, Technology retains a 37.86% YTD gain and an RSI of 60, with 71% of its constituents still above their 50-day moving average, indicating the pullback has not yet broken the sector’s longer-term uptrend.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)-0.42%1.29%4.08%14.38%16.22%
Energy (XLE)2.97%1.34%18.05%48.81%50.82%
Consumer Staples (XLP)2.11%-0.06%-0.50%9.46%10.19%
Financials (XLF)0.89%-5.03%-1.00%0.22%2.93%
Communication Services (XLC)0.73%0.81%2.71%-3.94%-1.85%
Real Estate (XLRE)0.69%-6.17%-6.70%3.65%2.32%
Materials (XLB)0.59%-4.70%-1.32%10.03%11.58%
Industrials (XLI)0.33%-3.19%-6.41%9.42%9.46%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)0.31%-1.79%-2.90%-5.87%-4.72%
Utilities (XLU)-0.19%-4.78%-8.79%-1.79%-6.97%
Health Care (XLV)-0.39%1.00%4.00%9.97%18.30%
Technology (XLK)-1.79%5.39%9.15%37.86%36.76%

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Global Thematic

Natural resource and gold mining thematic funds led the day’s gainers, with the iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE) up 2.24% and the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) rising 2.12%, both tracking the broader commodity and energy rally. On the opposite end, photonics and optical-themed funds were sharply lower, with the Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) falling 8.28% and the Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD) down 7.20%, reflecting the same AI-infrastructure concerns that hit optical and data-center names tied to major cloud providers. The divergence underscores a rotation away from speculative AI-adjacent themes toward hard-asset exposures during the session.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE)2.24%
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)2.12%
Cohen & Steers Natural Resources Active ETF (CSNR)1.75%
iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING)1.73%
State Street SPDR S&P North American Natural Resources ETF (NANR)1.65%
Laggards
Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)-8.28%
Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD)-7.20%
Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR)-6.86%
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI)-6.40%
Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO)-5.26%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed markets were broadly softer, with South Korea (EWY) the notable exception to the upside historically but posting a steep 4.03% decline on the day despite its 81.33% YTD gain, suggesting profit-taking after an extended run. Japan (EWJ) fell 1.02%, while Canada (EWC) and the U.K. (EWU) each gained 0.65%, drawing support from energy exposure. Within emerging markets, Taiwan (EWT) dropped 2.49% amid the semiconductor-led selloff despite a 78.40% YTD advance, while Brazil (EWZ) bucked the trend with a 0.52% gain, extending its 35.34% YTD outperformance. China (MCHI) slipped a more modest 0.54%, though it remains down nearly 14% year-to-date.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-0.39%-4.70%-0.64%8.63%12.10%
Australia (EWA)0.00%-5.90%0.39%9.32%6.95%
Canada (EWC)0.66%-5.16%0.60%8.65%15.60%
France (EWQ)-0.05%-9.43%-8.03%-5.97%-4.03%
Germany (EWG)-0.59%-6.66%-1.55%-2.40%-2.04%
Hong Kong (EWH)0.65%-5.28%2.89%3.85%5.77%
Japan (EWJ)-1.02%-0.65%5.17%21.18%24.21%
Netherlands (EWN)-0.82%-4.49%-2.20%17.16%18.78%
South Korea (EWY)-4.03%-7.17%-3.52%81.33%114.16%
Switzerland (EWL)-0.24%-3.81%-5.71%0.56%6.10%
U.K. (EWU)0.65%-4.38%-0.56%6.63%12.01%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)-1.89%-3.97%-0.20%21.43%23.67%
Brazil (EWZ)0.52%10.31%23.77%35.34%49.12%
China (MCHI)-0.54%-4.80%-2.82%-13.94%-20.86%
India (INDA)-1.19%-7.19%-6.35%-15.71%-13.43%
Indonesia (EIDO)-1.60%-11.72%-0.77%-36.48%-31.26%
Malaysia (EWM)-0.86%-6.15%-3.19%-1.60%5.12%
Mexico (EWW)-0.61%-6.70%-4.26%4.68%12.56%
South Africa (EZA)0.59%-12.12%-0.05%-7.00%1.05%
Taiwan (EWT)-2.49%1.61%9.09%78.40%80.60%
Thailand (THD)-0.88%-5.18%0.34%22.06%22.45%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income broadly advanced as yields declined, with Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) gaining 0.71% and (SPTL) up 0.80%, benefiting from the flight-to-quality bid during the equity selloff. Core Aggregate exposure via (AGG) rose 0.34%, while Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBB) added 0.57%. Credit-sensitive segments lagged, with Convertible Bonds (CWB) falling 1.28% in sympathy with the equity-market technology weakness, and High Yield (HYG) edging down 0.05%. The divergence between duration-sensitive Treasuries and credit products highlights a modest risk-off tilt within the bond market on the day.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Long-Term (BLV)0.71%-4.05%-5.65%-6.22%-6.73%
Core (AGG)0.34%-2.00%-2.46%-2.34%-1.63%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)0.27%-2.02%-2.42%-2.10%-1.31%
Short-Term (BSV)0.07%-0.65%-0.45%-0.06%0.98%
Government
Long-Term (SPTL)0.80%-4.66%-6.00%-6.98%-7.56%
Inflation Protected (TIP)0.27%-2.36%-2.56%-1.65%-1.93%
Intermediate (SPTI)0.18%-1.65%-2.04%-2.51%-1.65%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.07%-0.23%0.14%0.75%1.77%
Ultrashort (BIL)0.01%0.30%0.92%2.76%3.66%
Specialty
Mortgage Backed (MBB)0.57%-2.63%-3.13%-2.65%-1.51%
Corporate (SPIB)0.12%-1.31%-1.56%-1.08%-0.05%
Bank Loans (BKLN)0.00%0.02%2.00%2.27%4.46%
Preferred Stock (PFF)0.00%-2.83%-2.10%-1.30%-2.31%
High Yield (HYG)-0.05%-2.07%-1.72%0.01%1.44%
Convertible (CWB)-1.28%-3.78%-3.92%13.52%9.71%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX)0.21%-0.73%-1.15%-0.80%-0.74%
Emerging USD (EMB)0.20%-3.13%-3.74%-1.71%0.73%
International Local (IGOV)0.08%-4.10%-2.29%-4.63%-4.47%
Emerging Local (EMLC)0.04%-2.70%-0.85%0.60%3.73%
Municipals
Long-Term (MLN)0.37%-4.51%-7.51%-5.07%-3.97%
High Yield (HYD)0.29%-2.93%-5.78%-3.30%-1.36%
Intermediate (MUB)0.22%-2.89%-4.99%-3.65%-2.39%
Short-Term (SUB)0.16%-0.93%-0.84%-0.05%0.64%

Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →

Commodities

Energy commodities dominated the session, with WTI Crude (USO) surging 2.55% and Brent Crude (BNO) climbing 2.81%, both now up more than 100% over the past year, as Iran’s warning over Hormuz shipping routes and Gulf of Mexico storm disruptions tightened near-term supply expectations. The broader energy complex via (DBE) added 2.95%. Precious metals were mixed, with Gold (GLD) up 0.73% on safe-haven demand while Silver (SLV) slipped 0.69%. Industrial metals and agriculture were broadly softer, with Copper (CPER) down 0.88% and Sugar (CANE) falling 2.44%, underscoring the day’s energy-specific rather than broad-commodity driven move.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)0.54%-0.06%14.62%38.82%44.20%
Agriculture
Corn (CORN)-0.47%-5.06%9.41%6.94%7.85%
Broad (DBA)-0.53%-2.71%2.61%11.05%10.20%
Wheat (WEAT)-0.56%-8.16%9.07%23.99%20.78%
Soybeans (SOYB)-0.72%-1.55%8.69%25.30%24.95%
Sugar (CANE)-2.44%4.17%20.52%22.81%14.86%
Energy
Broad (DBE)2.95%6.89%35.83%117.69%107.50%
Brent Crude (BNO)2.81%10.24%46.06%124.72%111.64%
WTI Crude (USO)2.55%1.06%31.52%113.39%100.71%
Natural Gas (UNG)-1.99%3.35%-6.81%-11.83%-17.48%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)-0.88%-2.74%6.45%12.87%25.75%
Broad (DBB)-1.43%-4.99%2.70%7.93%21.04%
Precious Metals
Palladium (PALL)0.94%-16.13%-7.54%-29.53%-23.70%
Gold (GLD)0.73%-5.28%1.11%-4.46%1.70%
Broad (DBP)0.33%-6.62%0.89%-8.23%3.87%
Platinum (PPLT)0.27%-9.96%2.85%-20.51%-2.63%
Silver (SLV)-0.69%-9.97%1.17%-17.03%19.95%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets declined across the board, tracking the risk-off tone in technology equities. Solana exposure via (SOLZ) led losses, down 5.66%, followed by Ethereum (ETHA) at -4.13% and XRP (XRP) at -3.29%. Bitcoin (IBIT) was comparatively resilient, falling 2.01%, though it remains down 6.83% year-to-date. The uniform weakness across major tokens suggests crypto traded in correlation with the broader tech-driven risk aversion rather than any idiosyncratic catalyst.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Solana (SOLZ)-5.66%5.52%40.59%-13.49%-54.13%
Ethereum (ETHA)-4.13%-0.82%41.62%-17.22%-45.66%
XRP (XRP)-3.29%-3.89%25.51%-25.44%—
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)-2.44%2.87%32.45%-9.72%-38.27%
Bitcoin (IBIT)-2.01%4.21%31.31%-6.83%-33.97%

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What to Watch Today

Friday brings the University of Michigan’s preliminary October Consumer Sentiment reading at 2:00 PM ET, along with Consumer Expectations, Current Conditions, and inflation expectations components, which could influence rate-path expectations following this week’s FOMC minutes. August Business Inventories are due at 10:00 AM ET, while the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count at 5:00 PM ET will be watched closely given this week’s sharp crude price moves. On the earnings front, Delta Air Lines, Salesforce, and Snowflake report before the open, with UnitedHealth Group and Procter & Gamble reporting during market hours; P&G options markets imply roughly a 10.5% average move. CFTC positioning data covering S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and gold speculative positions will also be released after the close at 7:30 PM ET.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.