Nasdaq Hits Record as Brazil and Energy Lead Global Moves

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities extended their advance Monday, with the S&P 500 (IVV) rising 0.67% as AI-linked technology and communications names drove the Nasdaq to a fresh record close. Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) were essentially flat on the day at 0.07%, lagging the U.S. and still down nearly 4% over the past month, while Emerging Markets (EEM) outperformed with a 1.57% gain, pushing its year-to-date return to 26.26%. Fixed income softened modestly, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) slipping 0.13% as Treasury yields pushed higher. Broad Commodities (DJP) edged up 0.12%, masking a sharp divergence underneath as crude oil fell roughly 2% while agricultural names advanced. The standout outlier was Brazil (EWZ), which surged 12.54% on the day, dwarfing every other single-country or broad-market move in the dataset.

U.S. Size & Style

Growth continued to outpace value across the cap spectrum, with Large Growth (IVW) up 0.92% versus a 0.39% gain for Large Value (IVE), extending a widening performance gap that has Large Growth’s three-month return at 7.36% against just 0.53% for value. Large Cap (IVV) carries an RSI of 59, well within neutral territory, though Large Growth’s RSI of 67 is approaching overbought levels. Mid and small-cap segments posted smaller, more uniform gains between 0.17% and 0.55%, with breadth remaining narrow — only 19% to 31% of constituents across these segments trade above their 50-day moving averages. Small Cap (IJR) gained 0.36% on the day but remains down 4.00% over the trailing month, underscoring the market’s continued preference for large-cap growth exposure.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.39%-2.27%0.53%9.96%12.73%
Large Cap (IVV)0.67%0.85%4.29%14.56%17.10%
Large Growth (IVW)0.92%3.43%7.36%18.15%20.43%
Mid Value (IJJ)0.17%-4.58%-3.70%8.14%9.21%
Mid Cap (IJH)0.40%-2.56%-2.87%12.52%13.47%
Mid Growth (IJK)0.55%-0.73%-2.18%16.50%17.27%
Small Value (IJS)0.40%-4.42%-2.94%16.27%18.24%
Small Cap (IJR)0.36%-4.00%-4.75%16.63%17.27%
Small Growth (IJT)0.34%-3.50%-6.56%16.78%16.10%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Materials (XLB) led all sectors with a 1.31% advance, followed closely by Communication Services (XLC) at 1.17% and Energy (XLE) at 1.00%, the latter still carrying a 44.72% year-to-date gain despite the day’s crude oil weakness. Technology (XLK) rose 0.56% and remains the sector leader over longer horizons, up 40.06% year-to-date, with an RSI of 71 signaling overbought conditions and 76% of its constituents trading above their 50-day moving average — the broadest participation of any sector. Real Estate (XLRE) was the lone sector decliner at -0.34%, with an RSI of just 20 flagging oversold conditions and zero percent of its constituents above their 50-day average. Financials (XLF) gained 0.73% on the day but also screens oversold with an RSI of 32, reflecting persistent weakness over the trailing month of -6.94%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)0.67%0.85%4.29%14.51%17.03%
Materials (XLB)1.31%-5.17%-4.39%10.55%12.15%
Communication Services (XLC)1.17%-0.06%2.16%-4.33%-2.93%
Energy (XLE)1.00%-0.35%19.95%44.72%46.78%
Financials (XLF)0.73%-6.94%-2.79%-0.43%1.87%
Health Care (XLV)0.72%-2.01%2.61%9.45%17.49%
Consumer Staples (XLP)0.63%-3.55%-4.02%6.34%6.72%
Technology (XLK)0.56%7.41%11.39%40.06%41.86%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)0.35%-3.70%-5.52%-6.96%-6.40%
Utilities (XLU)0.35%-6.53%-12.01%-4.42%-7.53%
Industrials (XLI)0.09%-2.69%-7.26%10.53%11.41%
Real Estate (XLRE)-0.34%-6.65%-8.22%3.20%0.03%

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Global Thematic

Thematic funds tied to biotechnology and genomics led the day’s gainers, with ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) up 5.13% and Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM) up 3.85%. Emerging markets internet exposure also performed well, with EMQQ The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (EMQQ) gaining 3.92%, while ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) added 3.28% on continued strength in innovation-linked names. On the downside, crypto-adjacent and digital-infrastructure themes lagged, with First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT) falling 3.45% and Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD) down 2.87%. Cannabis-focused funds also underperformed, with Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) off 2.31%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)5.13%
EMQQ The Emerging Markets Internet ETF (EMQQ)3.92%
Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM)3.85%
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)3.28%
ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF (XOVR)3.08%
Laggards
First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT)-3.45%
Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD)-2.87%
Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS)-2.31%
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI)-2.18%
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS)-1.79%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed international markets were mixed, with France (EWQ) declining 1.04% amid political uncertainty following calls for early elections, while Hong Kong (EWH) gained 0.93% and Japan (EWJ) added 0.38%, extending its year-to-date lead at 23.64%. Emerging markets activity was dominated by Brazil (EWZ), which jumped 12.54% on the day and now shows a 36.58% year-to-date gain, alongside notable strength in Indonesia (EIDO) at 2.05% and China (MCHI) at 2.03%, even as mainland China markets remained closed for the holiday. Taiwan (EWT) added 1.44% following reports of early-stage semiconductor collaboration talks, building on an 85.74% year-to-date gain. South Korea (EWY) slipped 0.22% on the day despite carrying the largest year-to-date gain in the group at 96.94%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)0.07%-3.99%-0.33%10.03%13.16%
Australia (EWA)0.39%-5.95%1.21%10.09%6.92%
Canada (EWC)0.10%-5.25%1.75%9.50%16.28%
France (EWQ)-1.04%-8.54%-8.99%-4.91%-4.25%
Germany (EWG)-0.12%-6.02%-2.51%-1.01%-0.85%
Hong Kong (EWH)0.93%-6.16%4.01%4.09%5.92%
Japan (EWJ)0.38%1.04%6.61%23.64%26.69%
Netherlands (EWN)-0.25%-2.03%0.22%19.87%19.06%
South Korea (EWY)-0.22%1.37%6.28%96.94%133.53%
Switzerland (EWL)0.05%-6.13%-7.38%0.58%6.44%
U.K. (EWU)0.02%-4.94%-2.06%6.54%12.02%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)1.57%0.04%4.61%26.26%29.21%
Brazil (EWZ)12.54%13.52%24.83%36.58%48.20%
China (MCHI)2.03%-4.79%2.69%-12.40%-19.95%
India (INDA)0.11%-6.69%-6.03%-13.84%-11.21%
Indonesia (EIDO)2.05%-8.73%4.10%-35.11%-29.71%
Malaysia (EWM)0.22%-3.66%0.56%1.16%7.32%
Mexico (EWW)1.10%-6.21%-4.81%5.18%11.27%
South Africa (EZA)-0.03%-11.82%-1.30%-6.24%4.60%
Taiwan (EWT)1.44%5.19%12.53%85.74%90.96%
Thailand (THD)-0.20%-2.60%-0.20%22.60%23.27%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income was broadly softer as Treasury yields rose alongside the equity rally, with Core bonds (AGG) down 0.13% and Long-Term bonds (BLV) declining 0.24%, extending a 7.01% year-to-date loss for the long-duration segment. Short-duration instruments held up better, with Short-Term Treasuries (SPTS) flat and Ultrashort (BIL) gaining 0.01%, underscoring continued pressure along the longer end of the curve. Credit spreads remained stable, with High Yield (HYG) up 0.09% and Bank Loans (BKLN) adding 0.05%. Emerging market debt outperformed developed peers, with Emerging Local (EMLC) gaining 0.28%, consistent with the broader risk-on tone in emerging market equities.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV)0.05%-0.91%-0.90%-0.27%0.77%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)-0.07%-2.59%-3.39%-2.58%-1.84%
Core (AGG)-0.13%-2.62%-3.54%-2.86%-2.19%
Long-Term (BLV)-0.24%-4.92%-7.74%-7.01%-7.76%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL)0.01%0.28%0.90%2.73%3.67%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.00%-0.47%-0.18%0.58%1.59%
Intermediate (SPTI)0.00%-2.18%-2.88%-2.90%-2.04%
Inflation Protected (TIP)-0.12%-2.80%-3.31%-2.16%-2.26%
Long-Term (SPTL)-0.46%-5.53%-8.01%-7.80%-8.41%
Specialty
High Yield (HYG)0.09%-2.32%-1.99%-0.20%0.99%
Bank Loans (BKLN)0.05%-0.03%2.35%2.27%4.26%
Corporate (SPIB)0.03%-1.80%-2.37%-1.51%-0.54%
Convertible (CWB)-0.09%-0.87%-1.88%15.63%12.49%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)-0.15%-3.52%-4.27%-3.35%-2.17%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-0.24%-2.34%-1.79%-0.89%-2.09%
International & EM
Emerging Local (EMLC)0.28%-3.12%-1.48%0.23%3.27%
Emerging USD (EMB)0.22%-3.90%-4.80%-2.38%-0.07%
International Local (IGOV)-0.10%-3.89%-3.09%-4.54%-5.30%
International USD (BNDX)-0.15%-1.15%-2.28%-1.10%-0.92%
Municipals
Long-Term (MLN)0.55%-3.64%-7.23%-4.19%-2.94%
Intermediate (MUB)0.16%-2.53%-5.16%-3.28%-1.84%
High Yield (HYD)0.02%-2.66%-5.95%-3.00%-1.23%
Short-Term (SUB)-0.04%-1.09%-1.05%-0.15%0.50%

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Commodities

Commodity performance was sharply divided, as energy prices fell while agricultural and industrial metals advanced. WTI Crude (USO) dropped 2.29% and Brent Crude (BNO) fell 2.61%, though both remain up more than 100% over the past year. Sugar (CANE) led gainers with a 3.13% advance, while Wheat (WEAT) rose 1.37% and Platinum (PPLT) added 0.97%. Industrial metals also firmed, with Copper (CPER) up 0.86% and the broad industrial metals basket (DBB) gaining 0.76%. Gold (GLD) slipped 0.16% despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty tied to U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)0.12%-0.12%18.40%37.22%45.01%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE)3.13%6.74%24.77%24.96%15.93%
Wheat (WEAT)1.37%-5.29%11.96%25.64%20.92%
Broad (DBA)0.89%-1.35%6.43%11.52%10.54%
Soybeans (SOYB)0.37%-1.19%11.78%24.98%25.38%
Corn (CORN)0.27%-5.83%12.10%6.60%7.33%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG)0.76%-0.09%-8.89%-13.95%-19.16%
Broad (DBE)-1.64%5.70%41.76%109.33%103.34%
WTI Crude (USO)-2.29%1.43%38.48%108.20%100.80%
Brent Crude (BNO)-2.61%9.52%54.90%116.98%109.87%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)0.86%-0.23%6.89%14.02%27.27%
Broad (DBB)0.76%-2.60%4.67%9.33%22.90%
Precious Metals
Platinum (PPLT)0.97%-5.58%5.84%-16.43%6.43%
Silver (SLV)0.71%-7.84%0.20%-14.42%26.68%
Broad (DBP)0.52%-6.94%0.37%-7.21%8.67%
Palladium (PALL)0.14%-15.92%-7.11%-26.81%-8.02%
Gold (GLD)-0.16%-6.69%0.38%-4.23%6.13%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets posted broad gains Monday, with XRP (XRP) leading at 2.19% and a Multi-Coin basket (NCIQ) up 3.23%. Solana (SOLZ) rose 1.79% and Bitcoin (IBIT) gained 1.74%, though Bitcoin remains down 30.44% over the trailing year. Ethereum (ETHA) advanced 1.59% on the day and has climbed 58.86% over the past three months, despite a steeper one-year decline of 40.37%. Across the group, shorter-term momentum has turned more constructive even as year-to-date and one-year figures remain negative for most major tokens.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Ethereum (ETHA)1.59%10.31%58.86%-8.92%-40.37%
Bitcoin (IBIT)1.74%7.36%39.26%-2.20%-30.44%
Solana (SOLZ)1.79%18.20%48.04%-4.79%-50.54%
XRP (XRP)2.19%7.35%38.61%-18.13%—
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)3.23%8.42%42.13%-4.28%-34.60%

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What to Watch Today

Tuesday’s calendar includes the U.S. Trade Balance for August at 12:30 PM ET, with consensus near -$102 billion versus a prior reading of -$88.6 billion, alongside the Logistics Managers Index at 10:00 AM ET and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for October at 2:00 PM ET. Fed Governors John Williams and Michelle Bowman are scheduled to speak at 1:05 PM ET and 2:45 PM ET, respectively, ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes release. A U.S. 3-Year Treasury Note auction is also scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, alongside the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 4:00 PM ET. Internationally, Eurozone Retail Sales data and a German 2-Year Schatz auction are due in the early session, while mainland China markets remain closed for holiday through October 8.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.