Geopolitical Tensions Spark Energy Surge Amid Broad Market Sell-Off

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Macro Overview

Global equity markets retreated on Tuesday as escalating geopolitical tensions and a sell-off in government bonds created a risk-off environment. The S&P 500 (IVV) fell 0.70%, while Developed ex-U.S. equities (EFA) declined 0.89%. Emerging Markets (EEM) showed relative strength with a smaller loss of 0.37%, buoyed by gains in some commodity-exporting nations. Fixed income markets offered no refuge as rising yields pushed the U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) down 0.31%, leaving Broad Commodities (DJP) as the clear outlier with a 1.29% gain driven by a spike in oil prices.

U.S. Size & Style

A broad-based decline swept across U.S. size and style factors, with growth-oriented segments underperforming their value counterparts. Large Growth (IVW) dropped 1.00% while Large Value (IVE) posted a more modest 0.31% loss. Smaller capitalization stocks faced heavier selling pressure, evidenced by the 1.11% decline in the Small Cap index (IJR). Weakness was pronounced down the cap spectrum, with Mid-Cap Growth (IJK) falling 1.31% as risk aversion intensified.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) -0.31% 1.77% 4.42% 12.04% 17.58%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.70% 2.00% 0.70% 12.33% 19.46%
Large Growth (IVW) -1.00% 2.19% -2.30% 12.33% 20.77%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.74% -1.62% 2.94% 11.28% 13.50%
Mid Cap (IJH) -1.00% -0.89% 0.33% 13.57% 15.99%
Mid Growth (IJK) -1.31% -0.19% -2.06% 15.52% 18.12%
Small Value (IJS) -1.13% -0.65% 3.61% 19.47% 25.18%
Small Cap (IJR) -1.11% -1.75% 3.53% 19.47% 22.66%
Small Growth (IJT) -1.16% -2.91% 3.38% 19.15% 19.92%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Sector performance showed a stark divergence between energy and the rest of the market, reflecting the day’s geopolitical drivers. The Energy sector (XLE) surged 1.27%, pushing its RSI into overbought territory at 71, as oil prices climbed. Defensive sectors such as Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV) also finished in positive territory amid a flight to safety. In contrast, cyclical and rate-sensitive areas bore the brunt of the sell-off, with Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Technology (XLK) leading the declines. The Industrials sector (XLI) fell 1.37%, landing in oversold territory with an RSI of 30.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY) -0.69% 1.97% 0.68% 12.31% 19.40%
Energy (XLE) 1.27% 8.77% 13.84% 46.84% 47.74%
Utilities (XLU) 0.78% -4.04% -0.62% 1.02% 3.74%
Health Care (XLV) 0.66% 5.61% 16.63% 11.84% 27.09%
Consumer Staples (XLP) 0.32% 0.24% 4.65% 11.13% 8.47%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.16% -2.29% 2.66% 10.82% 7.65%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.52% 2.44% -3.84% -5.26% 0.80%
Financials (XLF) -0.88% 0.46% 11.61% 5.34% 7.58%
Materials (XLB) -1.18% 3.25% 2.64% 15.75% 14.89%
Industrials (XLI) -1.37% -3.95% 0.44% 11.93% 15.08%
Technology (XLK) -1.53% 4.73% -6.08% 27.86% 40.67%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -1.72% -1.29% -2.85% -3.65% -0.34%

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Global Thematic

The day’s market themes were clearly defined by the surge in energy prices and a broad aversion to risk. Agribusiness and energy infrastructure funds were top performers, with the iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI) gaining 2.28% and the ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB) rising 1.38%. Conversely, high-growth technology themes faced significant headwinds. Cybersecurity funds were among the hardest hit, as the WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR) and the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) both fell by more than 5.00%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day
Leaders
iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI) 2.28%
VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) 1.69%
ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB) 1.38%
Pacer American Energy Infrastructure ETF (USAI) 1.21%
Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF (SURI) 1.08%
Laggards
WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR) -5.43%
Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) -5.03%
VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) -4.81%
Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) -4.75%
Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ) -4.67%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International equity markets broadly declined, though emerging economies displayed notable pockets of strength. The Developed ex-U.S. index (EFA) fell 0.89%, with significant weakness in Europe, where Germany (EWG) lost 1.79%. In Asia, South Korea (EWY) was a notable laggard with a 2.80% drop. Emerging markets were more mixed, as gains in commodity-linked Brazil (EWZ) and tech-heavy Taiwan (EWT), which rose 1.50% and 1.58% respectively, helped cushion the broader index’s fall.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) -0.89% 0.86% 3.57% 12.64% 20.39%
Australia (EWA) -1.13% 1.16% 3.33% 14.93% 13.06%
Canada (EWC) -1.35% 2.04% 3.70% 12.89% 25.91%
France (EWQ) -0.92% -2.38% 1.53% 3.40% 9.78%
Germany (EWG) -1.79% 1.38% 1.89% 4.24% 5.79%
Hong Kong (EWH) -1.57% -2.30% -0.43% 7.82% 11.79%
Japan (EWJ) -0.69% 3.06% 3.01% 18.56% 26.92%
Netherlands (EWN) -1.41% 0.81% 0.82% 19.25% 33.24%
South Korea (EWY) -2.80% 11.90% -18.87% 80.83% 148.89%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.43% -1.00% 2.65% 6.13% 15.01%
U.K. (EWU) -0.37% -0.45% 4.70% 11.15% 20.20%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) -0.37% 4.18% -4.24% 22.66% 36.53%
Brazil (EWZ) 1.50% -0.22% 3.50% 16.21% 29.64%
China (MCHI) -0.57% -2.49% -1.14% -8.83% -9.57%
India (INDA) -0.24% -0.44% 3.31% -8.27% -4.62%
Indonesia (EIDO) 1.57% 4.53% 2.43% -29.62% -24.79%
Malaysia (EWM) -2.36% -1.28% -1.15% 3.40% 15.56%
Mexico (EWW) -1.38% -1.50% -1.42% 10.73% 26.35%
South Africa (EZA) -1.36% 9.31% 5.02% 3.22% 29.90%
Taiwan (EWT) 1.58% 13.66% 3.12% 72.74% 95.17%
Thailand (THD) -0.88% -1.79% -0.41% 23.03% 29.97%

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Fixed Income

A global bond market sell-off accelerated amid renewed inflation concerns, pushing prices lower across the fixed income landscape. The benchmark U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) declined 0.31% as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in over a year. Longer-duration assets were particularly affected by the rise in yields, with the Long-Term Corporate Bond ETF (BLV) falling 0.54%. Riskier credit segments also weakened in the risk-off environment, as seen in the 0.34% loss for High Yield bonds (HYG) and a 1.06% drop for Convertibles (CWB).

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV) -0.16% 0.08% 0.12% 0.51% 1.96%
Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.29% 0.08% -0.83% -0.21% 1.89%
Core (AGG) -0.31% 0.08% -0.92% -0.49% 1.59%
Long-Term (BLV) -0.54% 0.24% -3.02% -2.57% 0.15%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL) 0.01% 0.29% 0.89% 2.38% 3.72%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.01% -0.03% -1.21% 0.50% 0.85%
Short-Term (SPTS) -0.09% 0.16% 0.39% 0.91% 2.36%
Intermediate (SPTI) -0.20% -0.12% -0.61% -0.88% 0.45%
Long-Term (SPTL) -0.34% 0.47% -2.60% -2.82% -0.20%
Specialty
Bank Loans (BKLN) -0.10% 1.34% 1.79% 2.00% 4.71%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.31% -0.08% -0.51% 0.10% 2.11%
High Yield (HYG) -0.34% 0.55% 0.56% 2.10% 4.27%
Mortgage Backed (MBB) -0.38% 0.18% -0.95% -0.15% 2.58%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.63% -0.27% -2.77% 0.61% 1.40%
Convertible (CWB) -1.06% -0.53% -7.34% 14.38% 19.12%
International & EM
Emerging Local (EMLC) -0.19% 0.87% 1.28% 2.66% 7.24%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.28% 0.27% -0.73% 1.18% 5.65%
International USD (BNDX) -0.34% -0.55% -1.02% -0.32% 0.50%
International Local (IGOV) -0.70% -0.22% -2.03% -1.78% -2.13%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB) -0.12% 0.21% 0.26% 0.98% 1.76%
Intermediate (MUB) -0.46% -0.70% -1.64% -0.49% 3.41%
High Yield (HYD) -0.48% -0.57% -2.17% -0.17% 4.97%
Long-Term (MLN) -0.77% -1.11% -1.83% -0.12% 5.53%

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Commodities

The commodities complex was dominated by a powerful rally in energy prices following escalating military actions in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude (USO) soared 5.46% and Brent Crude (BNO) gained 5.15%, lifting the broad energy basket (DBE) by nearly 5.00%. In stark contrast, precious metals sold off sharply as rising bond yields and a likely stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the asset class. Gold (GLD) fell 2.86%, while Silver (SLV) posted an even larger decline of 3.68%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) 1.29% 9.77% 6.29% 38.29% 50.62%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE) 2.21% 20.27% 18.55% 18.61% 6.04%
Soybeans (SOYB) 1.98% 10.41% 10.50% 27.08% 24.07%
Corn (CORN) 1.15% 14.96% 13.35% 14.44% 15.48%
Wheat (WEAT) 0.68% 17.60% 20.12% 40.21% 30.84%
Broad (DBA) 0.58% 7.20% 8.26% 15.56% 10.00%
Energy
WTI Crude (USO) 5.46% 9.16% 4.06% 103.88% 88.40%
Brent Crude (BNO) 5.15% 10.28% 5.85% 96.19% 83.25%
Broad (DBE) 4.97% 10.88% 11.38% 98.34% 89.22%
Natural Gas (UNG) 0.38% 5.17% -8.32% -13.70% -17.54%
Industrial Metals
Broad (DBB) -0.74% 1.03% -3.75% 10.81% 32.47%
Copper (CPER) -2.32% -1.24% -2.23% 11.76% 38.89%
Precious Metals
Platinum (PPLT) -2.77% 5.61% -9.46% -15.25% 26.18%
Broad (DBP) -2.78% 7.31% -6.21% -3.01% 28.15%
Gold (GLD) -2.86% 6.79% -3.53% 0.11% 24.74%
Silver (SLV) -3.68% 10.62% -14.41% -10.09% 60.04%
Palladium (PALL) -4.44% 1.94% -4.59% -18.56% 17.03%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets retreated alongside other risk-sensitive markets as investors adopted a more cautious stance. The negative sentiment was felt across the complex, with Bitcoin (IBIT) falling 2.04% and Ethereum (ETHA) declining 2.62%. The sell-off was more pronounced in alternative coins, as illustrated by a 3.49% loss for Solana (SOLZ). This performance highlights the sector’s continued correlation with traditional risk assets during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -3.49% 36.83% 22.93% -20.65% -53.32%
Ethereum (ETHA) -2.62% 29.57% 20.65% -18.73% -44.45%
XRP (XRP) -2.58% 27.57% 4.13% -26.27%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -2.11% 23.95% 9.20% -14.39% -34.84%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -2.04% 22.78% 8.08% -11.86% -28.78%

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What to Watch Today

Looking ahead to Wednesday, market participants will parse a heavy schedule of economic releases for fresh insights into the U.S. economy. The morning will feature the ADP Employment Report and Factory Orders data, followed by the EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status Report, which will be closely watched given the recent spike in oil prices. In the afternoon, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will provide anecdotal commentary on economic conditions across the country. Notable earnings reports are also due from companies including Broadcom (AVGO) and Snowflake (SNOW) after the market close.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.