Energy and Crude Oil Lead as Treasury Yields Ease

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities edged higher as the S&P 500 (IVV) added 0.20%, extending its year-to-date gain to 12.96%, as a six-basis-point pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield from two-decade highs gave rate-sensitive valuations some breathing room. Developed ex-U.S. markets lagged sharply, with the EAFE benchmark (EFA) falling 1.03%, pressured by broad weakness across France, Germany, and the U.K. Emerging markets were essentially flat, with (EEM) up just 0.03% on the day but still holding a 22.73% year-to-date advance. The U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) rose 0.23% as yields retreated, while broad commodities (DJP) gained 0.54%, pushing the year-to-date advance to 37.73%. The clearest outlier was crude oil, with Brent-tracking (BNO) jumping 4.76% on the day and 122.28% year-to-date as oil prices extended their run higher alongside the broader yield move.

U.S. Size & Style

Mid- and small-cap segments outperformed large caps on the day, with Mid Cap (IJH) up 1.04% and Mid Growth (IJK) up 1.13%, both notably stronger than the 0.20% gain in Large Cap (IVV). Small Value (IJS) and Small Cap (IJR) both carry RSI readings of 32, approaching oversold territory, consistent with their weak one-month returns of roughly -4%. Large Growth (IVW) continues to lead on a trailing basis with a 15.95% year-to-date gain and an RSI of 58, reflecting sustained demand for growth exposure even as breadth remains narrow, with only 33% of constituents above their 50-day moving average. Value-oriented segments, including Large Value (IVE) at an RSI of 35, show technically stretched-to-the-downside conditions despite modest daily gains, suggesting near-term positioning may be due for stabilization.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.14%-2.66%0.76%9.05%12.24%
Large Cap (IVV)0.20%0.56%2.74%12.96%15.57%
Large Growth (IVW)0.19%3.22%4.22%15.95%18.01%
Mid Value (IJJ)0.98%-4.00%-4.88%6.83%8.56%
Mid Cap (IJH)1.04%-2.25%-4.60%11.02%12.44%
Mid Growth (IJK)1.13%-0.56%-4.33%14.87%16.07%
Small Value (IJS)0.85%-3.96%-4.96%14.74%17.72%
Small Cap (IJR)0.68%-3.81%-6.83%14.91%16.42%
Small Growth (IJT)0.46%-3.73%-8.92%14.70%14.75%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Energy (XLE) led all sectors with a 1.95% daily gain, extending its year-to-date advance to 43.01% as oil prices continued climbing. Technology (XLK) followed with a 1.05% gain, supported by strength in semiconductors and software following Micron’s beat-and-raise quarter and positive guidance from Accenture, with the sector’s RSI at 66 and 72% of constituents trading above their 50-day moving average. Industrials (XLI) rose 0.99% despite a soft three-month return of -7.78%. On the downside, Health Care (XLV) declined 1.32%, the weakest sector of the session, while Communication Services (XLC) slipped 0.93%. Real Estate (XLRE) remains technically extended to the downside with an RSI of 18 and zero percent of constituents above their 50-day average, reflecting persistent pressure from the elevated rate environment.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)0.18%0.54%2.70%12.91%15.52%
Energy (XLE)1.95%-2.61%19.45%43.01%44.35%
Technology (XLK)1.05%7.84%6.69%37.88%39.70%
Industrials (XLI)0.99%-2.11%-7.78%9.58%10.89%
Utilities (XLU)0.61%-6.08%-10.71%-5.12%-7.31%
Financials (XLF)0.11%-6.21%-2.07%-1.21%1.70%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-0.03%-4.84%-7.66%-8.31%-9.02%
Consumer Staples (XLP)-0.33%-5.15%-2.93%5.41%5.48%
Materials (XLB)-0.33%-6.35%-4.42%8.40%11.44%
Real Estate (XLRE)-0.56%-6.86%-7.16%3.22%-0.07%
Communication Services (XLC)-0.93%-0.53%0.50%-5.77%-4.64%
Health Care (XLV)-1.32%-2.82%4.57%8.69%17.77%

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Global Thematic

Thematic performance skewed decisively toward semiconductor- and photonics-linked strategies, with the Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO) surging 6.59% and the Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) adding 3.65%, consistent with the broader strength seen in semiconductors and software during the session. The Corgi Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF (EUV) and Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) also advanced more than 2.7%, reinforcing the day’s technology-led tone. Conversely, biotech and life sciences themes lagged, with the ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) down 2.85% and the F/M Emerald Life Sciences Innovation ETF (LFSC) off 2.50%, aligning with the broader decline in the Health Care sector. The divergence highlights a rotation favoring hardware and semiconductor-adjacent themes over biotechnology and innovation-focused health strategies during the session.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO)6.59%
Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)3.65%
Corgi Lithography & Semiconductor Photonics ETF (EUV)3.28%
Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX)3.13%
Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM)2.77%
Laggards
ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO)-2.85%
F/M Emerald Life Sciences Innovation ETF (LFSC)-2.50%
ROBO Global Healthcare Technology and Innovation ETF (HTEC)-2.42%
Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM)-2.41%
Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC)-2.33%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed international markets broadly underperformed, with France (EWQ) down 2.09% and the Netherlands (EWN) falling 1.67%, dragging the EAFE benchmark (EFA) down 1.03% for the session. Germany (EWG) also declined 1.19%, while Japan (EWJ) was comparatively resilient, down just 0.08% and still up 21.25% year-to-date. Within emerging markets, South Korea (EWY) stood out with a 1.82% daily gain, extending a remarkable 91.43% year-to-date advance and 132.44% one-year return. Mexico (EWW) and South Africa (EZA) were among the weakest emerging performers, each down more than 1.7%, while the broader EEM benchmark (EEM) held essentially flat.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-1.03%-3.45%-0.19%8.75%12.96%
Australia (EWA)-1.13%-5.69%1.05%8.39%6.35%
Canada (EWC)-0.17%-3.83%1.06%8.57%16.82%
France (EWQ)-2.09%-8.21%-7.23%-5.09%-3.53%
Germany (EWG)-1.19%-6.03%-0.95%-2.04%-1.18%
Hong Kong (EWH)0.23%-1.73%5.22%5.95%7.27%
Japan (EWJ)-0.08%2.27%4.65%21.25%26.67%
Netherlands (EWN)-1.67%-1.10%-2.46%17.94%18.69%
South Korea (EWY)1.82%5.86%0.33%91.43%132.44%
Switzerland (EWL)-0.56%-5.93%-5.89%-0.17%7.01%
U.K. (EWU)-1.38%-4.77%-0.11%5.85%11.66%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)0.03%0.06%0.50%22.73%26.56%
Brazil (EWZ)-0.30%1.56%8.66%18.02%27.02%
China (MCHI)-0.15%-4.23%1.14%-12.68%-19.85%
India (INDA)-0.69%-6.49%-5.79%-14.23%-11.51%
Indonesia (EIDO)-1.02%-10.21%2.93%-36.80%-31.66%
Malaysia (EWM)-1.79%-2.99%0.86%0.31%6.37%
Mexico (EWW)-1.86%-7.78%-7.31%2.11%8.07%
South Africa (EZA)-1.75%-9.61%0.21%-6.70%4.59%
Taiwan (EWT)-0.11%2.77%6.71%77.52%83.94%
Thailand (THD)0.26%-1.45%-0.70%21.24%23.78%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income posted broad gains as the 10-year Treasury yield retreated six basis points intraday, with Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) up 0.28% and the Core Aggregate (AGG) rising 0.23% on the day, though both remain negative on a trailing one-month basis given the prior run-up in yields. Municipal bonds outperformed, with Long-Term Municipals (MLN) gaining 0.61% and Intermediate Municipals (MUB) adding 0.51%. Preferred Stock (PFF) rose 0.40%, while High Yield (HYG) was little changed, up just 0.04%. International fixed income lagged, with Emerging Local Currency debt (EMLC) down 0.65% and International Local (IGOV) off 0.30%, underscoring the divergence between domestic rate relief and pressure abroad.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Long-Term (BLV)0.28%-4.08%-7.18%-6.55%-7.18%
Core (AGG)0.23%-2.08%-3.13%-2.56%-1.89%
Short-Term (BSV)0.22%-0.70%-0.67%-0.20%0.79%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)0.21%-2.14%-3.06%-2.34%-1.55%
Government
Intermediate (SPTI)0.30%-1.79%-2.53%-2.65%-1.89%
Long-Term (SPTL)0.26%-4.39%-7.31%-7.09%-7.71%
Inflation Protected (TIP)0.26%-2.34%-2.86%-1.85%-2.10%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.16%-0.33%0.00%0.58%1.62%
Ultrashort (BIL)0.04%0.31%0.91%2.69%3.67%
Specialty
Preferred Stock (PFF)0.40%-1.60%-1.86%-0.99%-2.12%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)0.33%-2.70%-3.66%-2.85%-1.70%
Corporate (SPIB)0.25%-1.49%-2.10%-1.39%-0.48%
Bank Loans (BKLN)0.15%0.12%2.15%2.12%4.26%
High Yield (HYG)0.04%-2.35%-1.94%-0.30%0.74%
Convertible (CWB)-0.03%0.20%-4.10%14.61%12.48%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX)0.07%-0.77%-2.34%-1.10%-0.86%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.15%-3.60%-4.71%-2.47%-0.07%
International Local (IGOV)-0.30%-3.10%-3.06%-4.82%-5.69%
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.65%-3.00%-1.69%-0.41%2.69%
Municipals
Long-Term (MLN)0.61%-3.73%-6.63%-3.84%-2.47%
Intermediate (MUB)0.51%-2.60%-4.81%-3.07%-1.64%
High Yield (HYD)0.44%-2.65%-5.59%-2.82%-1.14%
Short-Term (SUB)0.25%-1.05%-0.93%-0.09%0.63%

Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →

Commodities

Energy commodities dominated the complex, with Brent Crude (BNO) climbing 4.76% and WTI Crude (USO) up 2.99%, both extending year-to-date gains beyond 116%, consistent with the reported rise in oil prices during the session. The broad energy fund (DBE) added 2.40%, pushing its year-to-date return to 115.23%. Precious metals were firm but comparatively muted, with Silver (SLV) up 0.94% and Gold (GLD) up 0.50%, though both remain in negative territory year-to-date. Industrial metals lagged, with the broad metals fund (DBB) falling 1.19% and Palladium (PALL) down 1.56%. Natural Gas (UNG) declined 2.03%, standing in contrast to the strength seen in crude markets.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)0.54%-0.40%19.03%37.73%45.46%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE)1.78%-0.95%16.35%17.48%10.62%
Wheat (WEAT)0.61%-11.71%10.36%23.79%19.71%
Broad (DBA)-0.04%-4.61%4.73%10.23%8.69%
Corn (CORN)-0.32%-6.46%11.98%7.05%8.15%
Soybeans (SOYB)-1.13%-2.09%10.93%24.43%25.17%
Energy
Brent Crude (BNO)4.76%13.30%59.73%122.28%111.45%
WTI Crude (USO)2.99%6.40%45.27%116.92%105.11%
Broad (DBE)2.40%8.52%46.18%115.23%106.37%
Natural Gas (UNG)-2.03%-3.97%-11.81%-17.13%-25.40%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)-0.68%1.13%6.18%13.01%31.04%
Broad (DBB)-1.19%-1.65%4.43%8.98%24.29%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV)0.94%-5.01%2.69%-14.59%28.22%
Platinum (PPLT)0.65%-1.84%8.54%-16.81%9.17%
Gold (GLD)0.50%-3.53%3.28%-3.42%7.51%
Broad (DBP)0.39%-3.82%3.15%-6.71%9.89%
Palladium (PALL)-1.56%-9.33%-2.54%-26.16%-5.96%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets posted modest gains across the board, with Bitcoin (IBIT) up 1.31% and Ethereum (ETHA) rising 1.24%, though both remain negative on a year-to-date basis at -3.40% and -9.18%, respectively. The Multi-Coin fund (NCIQ) gained 1.18%, while XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOLZ) advanced 0.84% and 0.73%, respectively. On a trailing three-month basis, Ethereum’s 67.10% return stands out as the strongest among the group, reflecting a sharper near-term recovery relative to peers. Despite the daily uptick, the asset class continues to trail broader equity and commodity benchmarks on a year-to-date basis.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Solana (SOLZ)0.73%18.02%52.79%-6.35%-48.71%
XRP (XRP)0.84%10.84%41.64%-18.27%—
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)1.18%10.33%43.71%-5.55%-32.57%
Ethereum (ETHA)1.24%11.74%67.10%-9.18%-37.90%
Bitcoin (IBIT)1.31%9.60%41.06%-3.40%-28.14%

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What to Watch Today

Friday brings the September Employment Situation report at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus looking for roughly 90,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders for August and Factory Orders data are also due, at 8:30 AM ET and 10:00 AM ET, respectively. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is scheduled to speak, with timing to be confirmed. Markets will also be positioning ahead of the FOMC Minutes release the following Tuesday, October 6.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.