CPI Surprise Sparks Broad Risk-Off Retreat

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities retreated sharply as the S&P 500 (IVV) fell 1.08%, pressured by a hotter-than-expected September CPI print that reinforced rate-hike expectations and ended the index’s lengthy streak without a 1% decline. Developed ex-U.S. markets held up marginally better, with the MSCI EAFE proxy (EFA) slipping 0.70%, while Emerging Markets (EEM) was the session’s clear underperformer, down 2.05% and extending a 2.42% one-month decline despite a still-robust 18.29% YTD gain. Fixed income offered a partial offset, as the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) edged up 0.12% on flight-to-quality demand even as yields priced in stickier inflation. Broad Commodities (DJP) declined 0.76% on the day but remains up a substantial 39.62% YTD. The standout outlier was South Korea (EWY), which dropped 4.04% on the day and is down 9.30% over the past month, though it still carries an extraordinary 64.40% YTD advance.

U.S. Size & Style

Growth and smaller-cap segments bore the brunt of the selloff, with Small Cap (IJR) falling 1.59% and Small Growth (IJT) down 1.70%, both now showing RSI readings of 32, bordering on oversold territory. Large Growth (IVW) dropped 1.90%, underperforming Large Value (IVE), which was effectively flat at 0.00% on the day, highlighting a rotation away from rate-sensitive, high-multiple names. Mid-cap names also struggled, with Mid Cap (IJH) losing 1.35% and sitting with only 26% of constituents above their 50-day moving average. Breadth remains weak across the smaller-cap spectrum, with Small Value (IJS) showing just 26% of names above the 50-day average, consistent with the Russell 2000’s slide into correction territory noted in today’s broader market action.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.00%0.01%2.20%11.65%15.69%
Large Cap (IVV)-1.08%1.42%2.68%13.80%17.54%
Large Growth (IVW)-1.90%2.63%2.95%15.37%18.81%
Mid Value (IJJ)-0.85%-2.70%-4.29%7.49%9.88%
Mid Cap (IJH)-1.35%-1.76%-4.07%10.37%12.48%
Mid Growth (IJK)-1.78%-0.91%-3.97%12.83%14.54%
Small Value (IJS)-1.48%-4.33%-5.23%13.49%17.85%
Small Cap (IJR)-1.59%-3.79%-6.52%13.60%15.90%
Small Growth (IJT)-1.70%-3.28%-7.93%13.35%13.75%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Defensive sectors led the market, with Health Care (XLV) gaining 2.53% and Consumer Staples (XLP) adding 2.22%, the latter now carrying an RSI of 67 as investors rotated into lower-volatility names amid the CPI-driven selloff. Energy (XLE) also advanced 0.64%, extending a 54.26% YTD gain and registering an overbought RSI of 71. Technology (XLK) was the day’s weakest sector, tumbling 2.98% as chip-related names and AI infrastructure plays came under pressure tied to rising borrowing-cost concerns highlighted by names like CoreWeave and Oracle. Communication Services (XLC) and Industrials (XLI) also declined over 1%, reflecting broad-based weakness outside of defensive and energy-linked names.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)-1.08%1.40%2.62%13.74%17.47%
Health Care (XLV)2.53%4.10%10.32%13.76%24.24%
Consumer Staples (XLP)2.22%2.62%3.85%12.93%11.81%
Energy (XLE)0.64%5.44%19.48%54.26%61.05%
Materials (XLB)-0.10%-1.17%-1.46%10.93%13.48%
Utilities (XLU)-0.36%0.50%-8.01%-0.24%-6.42%
Financials (XLF)-0.55%-4.07%-2.61%0.75%4.01%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-0.77%-0.98%-3.59%-6.05%-4.07%
Real Estate (XLRE)-0.81%-2.98%-5.95%5.28%3.97%
Industrials (XLI)-0.97%-1.44%-7.18%8.54%10.24%
Communication Services (XLC)-1.30%-3.39%-0.25%-5.01%-2.10%
Technology (XLK)-2.98%3.45%3.83%32.74%35.98%

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Global Thematic

Health-focused thematic funds held up best amid the broader risk-off tone, with the Tema Heart & Health ETF (HRTS) up 1.59% and the Tema Oncology ETF (CANC) gaining 1.20%, mirroring the defensive rotation seen in the broader Health Care sector. Digital-asset and AI-infrastructure-linked thematics suffered the steepest declines, led by the Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD), down 11.84%, and the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI), off 10.67%. The Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) fell 8.20%, consistent with the broad crypto drawdown seen across spot proxies. The divergence underscores a clear risk-off tilt, with capital flowing out of speculative, high-beta technology and crypto themes and into defensive healthcare exposures.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
Tema Heart & Health ETF (HRTS)1.59%
Tema Oncology ETF (CANC)1.20%
iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF (IDNA)1.20%
Global X Aging Population ETF (AGNG)1.14%
Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM)0.87%
Laggards
Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD)-11.84%
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI)-10.67%
Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)-8.94%
Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH)-8.20%
Schwab Crypto Thematic Natural Language Processing ETF (STCE)-7.54%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed markets were broadly lower, though Switzerland (EWL) bucked the trend with a 1.00% gain, and the U.K. (EWU) edged up 0.19%. Hong Kong (EWH) and Japan (EWJ) declined 1.92% and 1.52%, respectively, though Japan retains a strong 19.33% YTD gain. Within emerging markets, South Korea (EWY) and Taiwan (EWT) led the downside with losses of 4.04% and 2.22%, respectively, as both markets gave back a portion of their outsized YTD advances of 64.40% and 74.63%. China (MCHI) slipped 1.33% and remains down 13.80% YTD, while Brazil (EWZ) was more resilient, falling only 0.63% and holding a 35.37% YTD gain.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-0.70%-2.93%-1.16%8.68%13.77%
Australia (EWA)-0.80%-1.79%-0.59%10.52%10.27%
Canada (EWC)-1.08%-2.05%0.14%10.40%18.88%
France (EWQ)-0.36%-6.81%-7.90%-5.61%-3.28%
Germany (EWG)-0.63%-4.14%-1.09%-1.76%0.20%
Hong Kong (EWH)-1.92%-3.52%1.15%4.80%9.18%
Japan (EWJ)-1.52%-1.78%2.08%19.33%24.94%
Netherlands (EWN)-1.65%-2.40%-3.75%14.95%17.85%
South Korea (EWY)-4.04%-9.30%-9.69%64.40%97.69%
Switzerland (EWL)1.00%0.00%-3.09%2.67%9.28%
U.K. (EWU)0.19%-2.09%1.30%8.20%15.33%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)-2.05%-2.42%-1.95%18.29%23.93%
Brazil (EWZ)-0.63%12.94%18.23%35.37%53.10%
China (MCHI)-1.33%-3.53%-3.36%-13.80%-16.24%
India (INDA)-0.42%-2.87%-3.47%-12.97%-10.88%
Indonesia (EIDO)-0.34%-9.67%-3.31%-36.48%-30.35%
Malaysia (EWM)-0.33%-3.48%-4.34%0.23%8.32%
Mexico (EWW)-0.74%-2.83%-3.50%6.40%15.97%
South Africa (EZA)-1.62%-7.61%-0.27%-6.08%4.38%
Taiwan (EWT)-2.22%3.48%8.89%74.63%82.18%
Thailand (THD)0.03%-3.02%-2.12%22.10%26.19%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income was mixed but largely stable amid the equity selloff, with longer-duration Treasuries outperforming as Long-Term (BLV) rose 0.48% and Long-Term (SPTL) gained 0.50% on safe-haven demand. Core exposures such as the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) advanced 0.12%, while Inflation Protected (TIP) rose 0.25%, reflecting the market’s response to the hotter CPI data. Credit-sensitive segments lagged, with Preferred Stock (PFF) down 1.23% and Convertible (CWB) falling sharply by 2.91%, consistent with the equity-like drawdown in risk assets. High Yield (HYG) also slipped 0.36%, underscoring a modest widening in credit spreads alongside the broader risk-off tone.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Long-Term (BLV)0.48%-1.87%-4.46%-5.43%-7.26%
Core (AGG)0.12%-0.77%-2.23%-2.15%-2.06%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)0.11%-0.79%-2.11%-1.88%-1.61%
Short-Term (BSV)0.05%-0.05%-0.52%-0.06%0.63%
Government
Long-Term (SPTL)0.50%-2.02%-4.75%-5.92%-7.98%
Inflation Protected (TIP)0.25%-0.95%-2.24%-1.37%-2.02%
Intermediate (SPTI)0.15%-0.50%-1.93%-2.37%-2.11%
Ultrashort (BIL)0.00%0.31%0.91%2.82%3.66%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.00%0.09%0.03%0.72%1.45%
Specialty
Corporate (SPIB)0.03%-0.49%-1.50%-1.08%-0.43%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)0.03%-0.93%-2.81%-2.36%-1.64%
Bank Loans (BKLN)-0.20%-0.32%1.50%1.97%4.50%
High Yield (HYG)-0.36%-1.76%-2.17%-0.42%1.15%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-1.23%-2.82%-3.72%-2.74%-2.82%
Convertible (CWB)-2.91%-4.88%-7.20%9.11%5.25%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX)0.09%0.50%-1.16%-0.55%-0.97%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.05%-1.68%-3.25%-1.44%0.86%
International Local (IGOV)-0.30%-2.58%-2.76%-4.78%-5.04%
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.36%-1.07%-1.00%0.80%4.27%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB)-0.03%-0.23%-0.54%0.31%0.90%
Intermediate (MUB)-0.12%-1.14%-4.17%-2.78%-1.85%
High Yield (HYD)-0.26%-1.03%-4.62%-2.40%-0.79%
Long-Term (MLN)-0.30%-1.62%-6.42%-3.90%-3.42%

Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →

Commodities

Precious metals were the weakest commodity complex, with Silver (SLV) plunging 6.11% and Platinum (PPLT) dropping 3.79%, while Gold (GLD) fell 1.49% as rate-hike expectations pressured the non-yielding metal. Industrial metals also softened, with Copper (CPER) down 1.95% and Palladium (PALL) off 2.70%, extending a 31.80% YTD decline. Energy was the relative bright spot, as WTI Crude (USO) gained 0.31% and remains up 122.04% YTD, with Brent Crude (BNO) nearly flat at -0.06%. Broad Commodities (DJP) fell 0.76% on the day, reflecting the drag from metals despite continued strength in the energy complex.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)-0.76%-0.62%12.71%39.62%47.33%
Agriculture
Wheat (WEAT)0.49%-6.76%2.05%22.18%20.79%
Corn (CORN)-0.32%-7.99%5.32%3.89%6.72%
Sugar (CANE)-0.40%7.69%25.30%26.40%22.08%
Soybeans (SOYB)-0.51%-1.81%7.73%24.38%26.11%
Broad (DBA)-0.60%-2.42%2.28%10.74%10.09%
Energy
WTI Crude (USO)0.31%-1.98%27.79%122.04%122.55%
Broad (DBE)0.03%3.68%32.26%123.59%124.25%
Brent Crude (BNO)-0.06%4.67%37.58%129.73%130.30%
Natural Gas (UNG)-1.67%8.62%6.65%-8.48%-6.11%
Industrial Metals
Broad (DBB)-1.16%-1.24%0.53%7.89%21.81%
Copper (CPER)-1.95%3.66%2.91%13.44%28.56%
Precious Metals
Gold (GLD)-1.49%-4.29%1.03%-5.13%-1.26%
Broad (DBP)-2.50%-5.92%-0.62%-9.80%-0.38%
Palladium (PALL)-2.70%-14.64%-16.33%-31.80%-28.35%
Platinum (PPLT)-3.79%-8.93%-2.03%-22.33%-3.11%
Silver (SLV)-6.11%-11.65%-5.55%-22.04%7.31%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets extended losses across the board, with XRP (XRP) falling 3.59% and Ethereum (ETHA) down 3.16%, both underperforming amid the broader risk-off tone tied to the CPI surprise. Solana (SOLZ) declined 3.00%, while Bitcoin (IBIT) proved relatively more resilient, down 1.89% but still off 6.87% YTD. The Multi-Coin (NCIQ) basket fell 1.80%, consistent with the across-the-board pullback. The move aligned with weakness in crypto-adjacent equity thematics, reinforcing the risk-off character of the session.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
XRP (XRP)-3.59%-9.77%18.57%-28.02%—
Ethereum (ETHA)-3.16%-4.56%29.03%-18.43%-41.13%
Solana (SOLZ)-3.00%0.63%34.32%-17.56%-49.51%
Bitcoin (IBIT)-1.89%3.35%26.41%-6.87%-27.65%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)-1.80%1.94%26.70%-10.04%-32.04%

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What to Watch Today

Thursday brings a dense slate of macro data, with Producer Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and Import/Export Price Indexes all due at 8:30 AM ET, followed by Business Inventories at 10:00 AM ET. Fed Governor Bowman is scheduled to speak early in the session. Earnings before the open include Taiwan Semiconductor, Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services, Prologis, U.S. Bancorp, and First Horizon, while Alcoa, Interactive Brokers, and JB Hunt Transport report after the close. Natural Gas Storage data is due around 10:30 AM ET, and the IMF Annual Meetings continue into their fourth day.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.