AI Trade Unwinds as Tech Leads Broad Selloff

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities suffered their sharpest single-day decline in over a year, with the S&P 500 (IVV) falling 4.41% as investors reassessed the pace of AI-related data-center spending following this week’s midterm election results. Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) declined a comparatively more modest 2.86%, while Emerging Markets (EEM) dropped 5.79%, dragged lower by steep losses in Asian technology-exporting economies. Fixed income provided ballast, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) edging up 0.25% as capital rotated toward safety. Broad Commodities (DJP) rose 1.16%, led by crude oil strength, standing out as the session’s outlier amid otherwise widespread risk-asset weakness.

U.S. Size & Style

Growth-oriented exposures bore the brunt of the selloff, with Large Growth (IVW) sliding 5.75% versus a 2.80% decline in Large Value (IVE), underscoring the market’s retreat from high-multiple technology names. Mid Growth (IJK) fell 4.54%, while Small Cap (IJR) dropped 3.81%, both outperforming their large-cap growth counterpart on a relative basis. Large Growth’s RSI of 30 and Large Cap’s RSI of 33 signal approaching oversold conditions, a notable technical shift after a period of extended gains. Value segments across the cap spectrum, including Small Value (IJS) at -3.37%, held up comparatively better, reflecting reduced concentration in rate- and AI-sensitive names.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)-2.80%2.59%0.96%12.81%15.34%
Large Cap (IVV)-4.41%-5.40%-4.53%8.37%9.40%
Large Growth (IVW)-5.75%-11.58%-8.99%4.47%4.32%
Mid Value (IJJ)-3.37%1.87%-4.19%10.16%13.98%
Mid Cap (IJH)-3.90%-2.71%-6.62%9.46%12.08%
Mid Growth (IJK)-4.54%-7.00%-9.10%8.34%9.91%
Small Value (IJS)-3.37%-0.06%-5.30%16.20%19.54%
Small Cap (IJR)-3.81%-1.10%-7.35%15.35%17.48%
Small Growth (IJT)-4.30%-2.35%-9.60%14.03%14.99%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology (XLK) was the session’s clear laggard, plunging 8.00% as chipmakers absorbed the brunt of the reassessment of AI infrastructure spending, pushing its RSI to 26 and leaving just 25% of constituents above their 50-day moving average. Industrials (XLI) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) followed with declines of 4.12% and 3.83%, respectively, while Energy (XLE) fell 2.98% despite strength in crude prices. Defensive sectors proved far more resilient: Utilities (XLU) slipped just 0.71% and Consumer Staples (XLP) declined only 0.75%, both maintaining RSI readings above 60 and over 85% of constituents above their 50-day moving average. Communication Services (XLC) rounded out the day’s best performers with a modest 0.59% loss, highlighting a clear rotation away from AI-adjacent cyclicals toward income-oriented defensives.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)-4.41%-5.40%-4.54%8.33%9.34%
Communication Services (XLC)-0.59%-6.51%-5.59%-10.57%-6.88%
Utilities (XLU)-0.71%8.33%-0.09%3.54%0.24%
Consumer Staples (XLP)-0.75%12.60%7.64%19.74%23.47%
Real Estate (XLRE)-1.82%8.93%-1.17%12.41%12.02%
Health Care (XLV)-2.50%10.48%13.07%20.92%29.06%
Financials (XLF)-2.87%6.72%-0.51%6.26%11.03%
Materials (XLB)-2.91%5.72%-0.13%16.87%25.01%
Energy (XLE)-2.98%-2.87%8.19%40.57%45.00%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-3.83%6.54%-0.63%-0.87%-1.60%
Industrials (XLI)-4.12%-4.49%-12.58%5.57%7.25%
Technology (XLK)-8.00%-19.19%-12.56%13.19%10.61%

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Global Thematic

Thematic flows mirrored the broader risk-off tone, with gold mining strategies leading the day’s gainers as the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) rose 2.37% and the U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU) added 2.13%, benefiting from safe-haven positioning even as spot gold (GLD) advanced a more modest 0.81%. On the opposite end, semiconductor-adjacent and niche technology themes were hit hardest, with the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) collapsing 17.96% and the Tema Memory ETF (DISK) down 17.55%. Photonics and optical-components exposures also suffered double-digit declines, consistent with the broader chip-sector rout that saw the Philadelphia semiconductor index fall sharply. The dispersion between defensive precious-metals themes and high-beta technology niches illustrates the scale of the rotation triggered by reassessment of AI capital expenditure plans.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM)2.37%
U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU)2.13%
iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING)1.69%
Global X Video Games & Esports ETF (HERO)1.53%
Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX)1.53%
Laggards
Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM)-17.96%
Tema Memory ETF (DISK)-17.55%
Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR)-15.01%
Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX)-14.59%
Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO)-14.39%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International markets reflected the same AI-sensitivity theme, with Japan (EWJ) falling 5.97% amid broader regional tech weakness. Within emerging markets, the selloff was far more acute in export-heavy, semiconductor-linked economies: South Korea (EWY) plunged 13.46% and Taiwan (EWT) dropped 11.54%, both giving back a portion of substantial year-to-date gains of 35.41% and 35.18%, respectively. In contrast, China (MCHI) advanced 0.93% and South Africa (EZA) rose 2.04%, markets with comparatively limited direct exposure to the global semiconductor supply chain. The divergence underscores that Thursday’s decline was concentrated in technology-manufacturing hubs rather than a uniform global risk-off event.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-2.86%-1.28%-4.40%8.63%12.80%
Australia (EWA)-2.04%2.88%-2.95%13.26%13.14%
Canada (EWC)-2.70%2.36%-1.00%12.09%21.36%
France (EWQ)-1.05%3.85%-8.71%-1.24%1.77%
Germany (EWG)-1.72%3.64%-2.04%2.59%7.05%
Hong Kong (EWH)-0.85%6.61%2.56%10.97%10.21%
Japan (EWJ)-5.97%-11.12%-7.25%9.90%11.22%
Netherlands (EWN)-3.48%-6.68%-8.15%11.87%13.70%
South Korea (EWY)-13.46%-31.24%-22.17%35.41%39.36%
Switzerland (EWL)-1.70%10.41%1.95%11.05%20.19%
U.K. (EWU)-2.13%3.68%-0.99%10.46%16.22%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)-5.79%-15.54%-11.67%6.64%7.37%
Brazil (EWZ)-1.52%-26.11%-12.05%0.92%3.47%
China (MCHI)0.93%-0.46%-7.09%-12.80%-16.31%
India (INDA)-0.02%7.41%-0.58%-7.46%-7.88%
Indonesia (EIDO)-0.20%-17.53%-22.60%-46.49%-45.51%
Malaysia (EWM)0.29%0.55%-4.08%1.72%7.91%
Mexico (EWW)-0.38%5.83%-0.82%11.31%17.11%
South Africa (EZA)2.04%5.90%0.07%-0.70%13.68%
Taiwan (EWT)-11.54%-27.22%-15.56%35.18%36.05%
Thailand (THD)-2.10%-6.13%-7.73%15.08%16.28%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income delivered its intended ballast as investors rotated out of equities, with Intermediate Treasuries (SPTI) gaining 0.40% and the Core Aggregate (AGG) adding 0.25% on the day. Municipal bonds also advanced, with Long-Term Municipals (MLN) up 0.83%. Credit-sensitive segments diverged from the broader rate-driven rally, as Preferred Stock (PFF) fell 2.02% and Convertibles (CWB) dropped 3.14%, reflecting their equity-like sensitivity to the technology-led decline. High Yield (HYG) slipped a modest 0.31%, a relatively contained move that suggests credit markets did not share the same degree of stress evident in equities.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV)0.25%1.42%0.42%1.15%2.02%
Core (AGG)0.25%3.01%-0.07%0.07%0.74%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)0.18%2.81%-0.20%0.15%0.86%
Long-Term (BLV)0.08%5.37%-0.45%-2.01%-2.34%
Government
Intermediate (SPTI)0.40%2.71%-0.04%-0.27%0.53%
Long-Term (SPTL)0.24%6.28%-0.06%-2.00%-2.66%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.17%1.03%0.60%1.61%2.48%
Inflation Protected (TIP)0.15%2.35%-0.54%0.14%0.13%
Ultrashort (BIL)0.01%0.33%0.93%3.06%3.67%
Specialty
Corporate (SPIB)0.15%2.00%-0.23%0.45%1.55%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)0.14%3.77%-0.19%0.30%1.31%
High Yield (HYG)-0.31%0.91%-1.34%0.71%2.17%
Bank Loans (BKLN)-0.68%0.23%1.39%2.51%4.05%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-2.02%-3.98%-6.94%-4.84%-4.28%
Convertible (CWB)-3.14%-10.80%-12.62%3.14%-0.56%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX)0.15%1.90%-0.15%0.79%0.32%
International Local (IGOV)0.15%2.06%-2.10%-2.57%-1.75%
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.12%0.41%-2.07%0.65%3.54%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.52%2.24%-2.04%-0.19%1.26%
Municipals
Long-Term (MLN)0.83%4.95%-1.14%0.55%0.82%
High Yield (HYD)0.45%3.81%-0.21%0.70%2.11%
Intermediate (MUB)0.43%3.93%-0.13%0.52%1.17%
Short-Term (SUB)0.10%1.73%0.55%1.57%2.46%

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Commodities

Commodities were a bright spot on the day, with Broad Commodities (DJP) rising 1.16%, led by energy strength as Brent Crude (BNO) jumped 3.53% and WTI Crude (USO) gained 1.93%, both extending substantial year-to-date advances above 110%. Precious metals also benefited from the flight to safety, with Palladium (PALL) rallying 3.17% and Platinum (PPLT) adding 1.62%. Industrial metals told a different story, however, as Copper (CPER) declined 3.19%, consistent with concerns over industrial demand amid the broader risk-off tone. Agricultural commodities were broadly softer, with Corn (CORN) down 1.44% and Soybeans (SOYB) off 1.06%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)1.16%-5.15%5.59%30.15%33.96%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE)0.54%-8.45%11.94%14.40%21.87%
Wheat (WEAT)-0.27%-12.59%-8.85%9.81%0.37%
Soybeans (SOYB)-1.06%-7.39%1.00%15.74%8.03%
Broad (DBA)-1.10%-8.08%-5.32%2.51%2.06%
Corn (CORN)-1.44%-9.26%-2.67%-3.27%-4.99%
Energy
Brent Crude (BNO)3.53%1.76%37.70%120.80%115.40%
WTI Crude (USO)1.93%2.93%29.01%114.30%108.66%
Broad (DBE)1.06%-0.93%26.82%107.39%97.44%
Natural Gas (UNG)0.00%-12.13%-4.83%-24.39%-31.99%
Industrial Metals
Broad (DBB)-1.65%-2.71%-4.61%6.36%16.08%
Copper (CPER)-3.19%-6.27%-8.54%6.87%20.98%
Precious Metals
Palladium (PALL)3.17%-11.42%-24.05%-35.17%-27.28%
Platinum (PPLT)1.62%-11.68%-12.52%-26.19%-3.06%
Gold (GLD)0.81%-1.07%-3.63%-5.25%2.45%
Broad (DBP)0.70%-4.24%-6.66%-11.14%2.11%
Silver (SLV)-0.49%-14.87%-16.30%-27.15%7.51%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets participated fully in the day’s risk-off move, with Ethereum (ETHA) falling 7.25% and XRP (XRP) declining 5.84%. Bitcoin (IBIT) slipped 5.07%, extending its year-to-date loss to 13.33% and erasing much of the gains accumulated over the trailing three months. Solana (SOLZ) and the Multi-Coin strategy (NCIQ) posted comparable declines of 5.19% and 5.44%, indicating broad-based selling across the asset class rather than idiosyncratic weakness in any single token. The synchronized decline across crypto, technology equities, and growth-oriented strategies reinforces the day’s overarching theme of de-risking from speculative, high-beta assets.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Ethereum (ETHA)-7.25%-17.16%16.87%-24.55%-35.11%
XRP (XRP)-5.84%-18.39%14.82%-33.19%—
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)-5.44%-13.15%16.88%-16.86%-31.05%
Solana (SOLZ)-5.19%-25.59%19.63%-29.16%-46.38%
Bitcoin (IBIT)-5.07%-11.39%17.12%-13.33%-26.97%

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What to Watch Today

Friday brings the October Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate release at 8:30 AM ET, a key data point for gauging labor market resilience following Thursday’s sharp equity decline. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading, including inflation expectations, follows at 10:00 AM ET, while Federal Reserve Consumer Credit data for September is due at 3:00 PM ET. Investors will also monitor a series of Federal Reserve speakers throughout the day, including New York Fed President Williams, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, Fed Vice Chair Bowman, and Fed Governor Daly, for signals on the central bank’s policy trajectory. A busy earnings slate continues with reports from Enbridge, Moderna, Brookfield Asset Management, Humana, Charter Communications, and ConocoPhillips, alongside market reaction to after-hours results from Lam Research, Cloudflare, and Atlassian reported Thursday evening.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.