A Cornucopia of ETFs

The Alpha of Gratitude: A Strategic Allocation to Thanksgiving 2025

In the vast ecosystem of global financial markets, few events offer as comprehensive a cross-section of economic activity as the American Thanksgiving. It is a convergence of logistics, agriculture, energy, and consumer spending—a microcosm of the S&P 500 served on a platter. For the astute observer, the fourth Thursday of November is a stress test for supply chains and a barometer for consumer sentiment. As we approach Thanksgiving 2025, the data suggests a holiday defined by record mobility, stabilizing food inflation, and a decisive shift toward experiential spending.

This report deconstructs the holiday into its constituent economic components, utilizing the universe of ETFs to map the investment landscape of the feast. From jet fuel hedging to fertilizer input costs, this is a strategic allocation to gratitude.

The Great Migration: Logistics, Mobility, and Energy

The narrative begins with movement. With nearly 82 million Americans venturing from home, the “Great Migration” is a liquidity event for the transportation sector. The primary vehicle for capturing this is the JETS ETF. Unlike broad industrial funds, JETS provides concentrated exposure to the airline industry. While labor costs and delivery delays remain friction points, volume is king for the Thanksgiving trade.

While JETS captures physical movement, AWAY captures the digital infrastructure. Holdings like Uber, Airbnb, and Booking Holdings facilitate the modern traveler’s journey. With “Friendsgiving” driving a surge in short-term rental bookings, AWAY offers a higher beta play on travel tech, insulated from the crude oil volatility that plagues airlines.

For the 90% of travelers driving, the holiday links directly to XLE. While consumers lament the pump, XLE shareholders benefit from refining margins. Meanwhile, the electrified road trip is tracked by CARZ and DRIV, where the demand for charging infrastructure becomes a stress test for the grid.

Underpinning it all is the freight cycle tracked by IYT. Before a single turkey is carved, it must be transported. IYT reflects a return to volume-driven economics, ensuring grocery shelves remain stocked.

The Venue: Housing Economics and the “Guest Room” Crisis

The home is the stage, and HOMZ offers the most comprehensive view of the “Hosting Economy.” With existing inventory low, buyers are forced toward new construction, benefiting homebuilders in ITB. The “pre-holiday refresh” drives revenue for retailers in XHB like Home Depot and Lowe’s.

The guest room crisis leads to specific spending on furniture and bedding. TPX (Tempur Sealy) is a key stock to watch here, often buried in broader discretionary funds like XLY. For those preserving sanity by booking local lodging, BEDZ captures the “sanity premium”—the price paid for a private bathroom away from the chaos.

The Menu: Agribusiness and Inflation

The meal begins in the soil. MOO and VEGI track the companies making the feast possible, from Deere’s mechanization to Zoetis’ animal health solutions. For direct ingredient exposure, the Teucrium family offers pure-play beta: CORN (feedstock and syrup), WEAT (rolls and pie crusts), and SOYB (cooking oils).

For the processed plate, it’s a battle between PBJ and FTXG. PBJ holds shelf-stable staples like General Mills and Kraft Heinz. FTXG offers liquidity-weighted giants like PepsiCo and Tyson, but also hides the “Butterball Alpha”—Seaboard Corp, which owns a 50% stake in the iconic turkey brand.

The Kitchen: Preparation and Consumer Discretionary

Transitioning from grocery bag to table requires hardware. XLY tracks the “new oven” cycle, while retailers in XRT like Best Buy capture the surge in appliance sales. Target and Walmart (held in XLP) capture the spend on kitchen gadgets.

The aftermath belongs to XLP and the “Cleanup Crew.” Procter & Gamble (Bounty, Dawn) and Kimberly-Clark (Kleenex) thrive on the mess. Meanwhile, Haleon (Tums), found in PPH, represents the literal play on holiday gluttony.

The Feast: Dining Out and the “Vice” Hedge

For those outsourcing the stress, EATZ is the pure-play restaurant ETF. It captures the “Black Wednesday” bar bump and the “Pizza Pivot” to Domino’s (DPZ) when leftovers lose their appeal.

When family stress peaks, enter VICE. Investing in alcohol, tobacco, and gaming, VICE is a hedge against family drama; as stress levels rise, so does the revenue of its holdings.

The Entertainment: Football and the Digital Escape

Football is the secular religion of Thanksgiving. BETZ captures the wagering volume on the Lions and Cowboys games, holding sportsbooks like DraftKings (DKNG). For digital escapism, GAMR and HERO track the video game industry, with Roblox (RBLX) serving as a virtual meeting place. The broadcasters airing it all fall under XLC.

The Conversation: Politics, Macro, and “The Future”

Dinner table talk inevitably turns to markets. The “Crypto Cousin” is represented by IBIT and ETHA, financializing the Bitcoin debate. The inflation worrier finds solace in GLD and INFL. And when geopolitics dampens the mood, ITA and SHLD provide the defense hedge.

The Aftermath: Black Friday, Waste, and Recovery

As the meal ends, the Retail Olympics begin. XRT proxies the brick-and-mortar rush, while IBUY tracks the Cyber Monday shift. The inevitable waste—25% more than a standard day—is the domain of EVX, making trash a defensive utility play.

Finally, for the scraps, PAWZ captures the spend on the four-legged family members who are arguably the most grateful attendees of all.

The “Family Member” Portfolio Matrix

Appendix: The “Leftovers” Watchlist

As we conclude this exploration, the primary takeaway is connectedness. Investing, like Thanksgiving, is about preparation, patience, and dealing with a little bit of volatility. Whether you are bullish on the consumer (XRT) or bearish on family dynamics (VICE), the ETF market offers a seat for everyone. Happy Thanksgiving.