Chip Stocks Rebound While Commodities and EM Sag

U.S. large caps advanced modestly on Election Day, with the S&P 500 (IVV) adding 0.33% as semiconductor strength offset weakness elsewhere, though the fund remains down nearly 2% over the trailing month. Developed ex-U.S. equities lagged, with the MSCI EAFE proxy (EFA) slipping 0.60% as European and Asian markets broadly retreated. Emerging markets were essentially flat, with (EEM) off just 0.02%, masking sharp divergence underneath as Taiwan and Indonesia fell sharply while South Korea jumped. Fixed income softened broadly as the Core Aggregate (AGG) declined 0.23% after stronger-than-expected JOLTs and factory orders data pushed Treasury yields higher. Broad commodities (DJP) fell 0.74%, with industrial metals and precious metals the standout laggards even as the index remains up more than 31% year-to-date.

Growth outperformed value across the cap spectrum on the day, led by Large Growth (IVW) at 1.12% and Mid Growth (IJK) at 1.15%, both benefiting from the semiconductor rebound that lifted technology-heavy growth baskets. Value styles lagged across the board, with Small Value (IJS) down 0.84% and Large Value (IVE) off 0.61%. Despite the growth tilt in daily performance, small caps continue to lead on a year-to-date basis, with (IJR) up 18.33% versus 11.56% for large caps. Large Growth’s RSI of 37 reflects recent technical weakness even after today’s bounce, while mid and small value names show healthier breadth with roughly two-thirds of constituents above their 50-day moving averages.

Technology (XLK) led all sectors with a 1.31% gain as chipmakers rallied ahead of AMD’s after-hours earnings report, which delivered record revenue of $13.4 billion. Communication Services (XLC) and Industrials (XLI) also advanced over 0.9%, while defensive and value-oriented sectors broadly declined. Consumer Staples (XLP) and Materials (XLB) were the day’s weakest performers, falling 2.07% and 2.01% respectively, pulling back from recent strength as both remain up double digits over the trailing month. Health Care (XLV) carries an overbought RSI of 69 following a 20.34% year-to-date advance, while Technology and Communication Services both show oversold RSI readings near 30-36 despite today’s rebound, underscoring the volatility that has characterized mega-cap growth in recent sessions.

Digital asset and crypto-adjacent thematic funds dominated the leaderboard, with the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI) surging 11.05% and the Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD) gaining 9.77%, tracking strength in underlying cryptocurrency prices and AI infrastructure sentiment. Blockchain and digital transformation funds including (BKCH) and (DAPP) also posted gains exceeding 7%. On the losing side, homebuilder-focused funds struggled, with (ITB) falling 3.56% as the rise in Treasury yields weighed on rate-sensitive housing names. Precious and junior metals miners, including (SGDJ) and (SLVP), also declined more than 2% in sympathy with broader weakness in gold and silver prices.

Developed international markets were broadly weaker, with the U.K. (EWU) down 1.52% and Switzerland (EWL) off 1.09%, while Australia ('>EWA) and Canada (EWC) each declined more than 1%. Emerging markets diverged sharply, as Indonesia (EIDO) tumbled 3.69% and Taiwan (EWT) fell 2.37% amid reported AI-spending concerns that pressured Asian chip supply-chain names, consistent with the sharp declines seen in Taiwan’s Weighted Index and South Korea’s Kospi overnight. South Korea’s U.S.-listed fund (EWY) bucked that regional trend, rising 2.27% and extending a remarkable 59.49% year-to-date gain despite the underlying Kospi index’s steep overnight slide. China (MCHI) slipped 0.38%, tracking the CSI 300’s modest decline, while India (INDA) was a rare gainer, up 0.52%.

Rates-sensitive fixed income broadly declined as stronger JOLTs and factory orders data pushed Treasury yields higher across the curve. Long-duration Treasuries bore the brunt of the move, with (SPTL) down 0.64% and (BLV) off 0.42%, while shorter-duration instruments like (BSV) and (SPTS) held closer to flat. Credit-sensitive segments showed more resilience, with Bank Loans (BKLN) gaining 0.25% and High Yield (HYG) up 0.12%, decoupling from the rate-driven selloff in government debt. Convertibles (CWB) advanced 0.72%, tracking the equity rally in growth and technology names. Municipal debt was largely insulated, with (MUB) unchanged on the day.

Broad commodity exposure declined as precious and industrial metals sold off sharply, with Palladium (PALL) falling 2.98% and Copper (CPER) down 2.18%. Gold (GLD) slipped 0.66% and Silver (SLV) declined 1.60%, extending a difficult trailing month that has seen both metals fall more than 5% and 18%, respectively. Energy was the lone bright spot, with WTI Crude (USO) gaining 0.83% and Natural Gas (UNG) up 1.44%, with crude benchmarks maintaining triple-digit year-to-date gains. Agricultural commodities also softened, led by Sugar (CANE), which fell 3.49% on the day.

Crypto-linked funds advanced broadly, with XRP exposure (XRP) leading gains at 2.81% and Solana (SOLZ) up 2.31%. Ethereum exposure (ETHA) gained 2.05% and Bitcoin (IBIT) rose 1.61%, though both remain down double digits on a year-to-date basis, at -23.05% and -11.28% respectively. The one-day strength contrasts with a difficult trailing month for the asset class, as multi-coin exposure (NCIQ) is down 7.84% over that period despite today’s 1.68% gain. The rebound in digital assets coincided with the broader bounce in risk appetite that also lifted semiconductor and technology shares during the session.

Wednesday brings a dense macro calendar, led by the ADP Employment Change report for October at 8:15 AM ET, followed by the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services data and Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8:30 AM ET. The ISM Services PMI for October is due at 10:00 AM ET, with the prior reading at 54.9, alongside weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory data at 10:30 AM ET. No Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled for Wednesday, with the next appearances from Hammack, Musalem, and Bowman set for Thursday. Notable after-market earnings include Amgen, Arista Networks, and Booking Holdings, while Itaú Unibanco reports ahead of the open.