U.S. Stocks Shake Off Geopolitical Jitters, Tech Leads Gains

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities recovered from early session losses to close firmly in positive territory, as initial concerns over escalating U.S.-Iran tensions subsided. The S&P 500 (IVV) gained 0.80%, slightly trailing the 0.83% advance in Emerging Markets (EEM). Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) also rose, adding 0.54%. In contrast, Broad Commodities (DJP) fell 0.64% as oil prices reversed their initial spike, while the U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) posted a modest 0.14% gain.

U.S. Size & Style

A risk-on sentiment prevailed across U.S. size and style segments, with mid and small-cap stocks outperforming their large-cap counterparts. Mid-Cap Growth (IJK) led the advance with a 1.48% gain, followed closely by the broader Mid-Cap index (IJH) at 1.30%. In the large-cap space, Growth (IVW) rose 1.12%, more than doubling the 0.44% gain of Large Value (IVE). This broad-based strength, particularly in higher-beta segments, reflects investors’ willingness to add risk as the trading day progressed.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) 0.44% 1.90% 6.33% 9.24% 18.16%
Large Cap (IVV) 0.80% 2.20% 10.84% 10.82% 21.85%
Large Growth (IVW) 1.12% 2.46% 14.82% 11.97% 24.75%
Mid Value (IJJ) 1.03% 1.44% 5.84% 11.52% 16.24%
Mid Cap (IJH) 1.30% 1.55% 7.38% 15.25% 20.49%
Mid Growth (IJK) 1.48% 1.54% 8.74% 18.65% 24.22%
Small Value (IJS) 1.26% 1.88% 9.43% 18.81% 31.36%
Small Cap (IJR) 1.24% 4.30% 11.59% 21.60% 30.48%
Small Growth (IJT) 1.20% 6.83% 13.77% 24.31% 29.63%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

The Technology sector was the standout performer, propelling the broader market’s recovery with a 2.18% surge in the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), fueled by a rebound in semiconductor and AI-related names. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Financials (XLF) also posted strong gains of 1.34% and 1.04%, respectively. Conversely, the Energy sector (XLE) was a significant laggard, falling 1.40% as crude oil prices retreated from their intraday highs, while Consumer Staples (XLP) was the day’s worst performer, down 1.41%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY) 0.85% 2.25% 10.84% 10.82% 21.79%
Technology (XLK) 2.18% 2.66% 30.62% 29.05% 44.52%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 1.34% 1.05% 3.86% -1.75% 7.56%
Financials (XLF) 1.04% 6.24% 8.58% 2.28% 7.63%
Communication Services (XLC) 0.96% -0.61% -3.03% -5.58% 4.52%
Industrials (XLI) 0.38% 3.39% 5.44% 17.37% 22.37%
Materials (XLB) 0.20% -0.63% -2.36% 11.73% 11.50%
Real Estate (XLRE) 0.18% -0.79% 4.41% 11.30% 10.49%
Health Care (XLV) -0.08% 5.38% 9.07% 5.65% 21.77%
Utilities (XLU) -0.51% 3.27% -3.68% 7.12% 13.26%
Energy (XLE) -1.40% -3.80% -3.70% 24.28% 28.35%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -1.41% -0.38% 0.40% 8.46% 5.81%

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Global Thematic

Thematic ETFs saw significant divergence, with technology and precious metals miners leading a risk-on rally. The Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO) soared 7.66%, while silver-focused funds like the Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF Silver Miners ETF (SLVR) and the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) gained 5.04% and 4.54%, respectively. In contrast, cannabis-related funds faced heavy selling pressure, with the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) and the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) declining by over 3%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day
Leaders
Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO) 7.66%
Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF Silver Miners ETF (SLVR) 5.04%
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) 4.54%
VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS) 4.42%
Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) 4.41%
Laggards
Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) -3.06%
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) -3.04%
Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) -1.93%
VanEck Energy Income ETF (EINC) -1.43%
ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB) -0.99%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International equities posted gains, with notable strength in Asia. Among developed markets, Japan (EWJ) and South Korea (EWY) were top performers, rising 1.06% and 1.11% respectively, while the U.K. (EWU) finished slightly lower. In the emerging markets space, Brazil (EWZ) and Thailand (THD) led with advances of 1.60% and 1.55%. China (MCHI) also contributed positively with a 0.64% gain despite reports of softer domestic inflation data.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) 0.54% 2.58% 3.53% 9.92% 19.59%
Australia (EWA) 0.28% 1.24% -3.93% 9.20% 10.86%
Canada (EWC) 0.71% 1.07% 3.92% 8.76% 28.29%
France (EWQ) 0.24% 0.50% 0.52% 2.49% 5.71%
Germany (EWG) 0.56% 0.77% 1.79% -0.32% -2.07%
Hong Kong (EWH) 0.47% -0.19% -9.61% 1.41% 11.63%
Japan (EWJ) 1.06% 3.37% 6.57% 16.45% 33.12%
Netherlands (EWN) 0.59% 1.86% 11.14% 20.51% 30.74%
South Korea (EWY) 1.11% 0.38% 32.64% 90.03% 162.14%
Switzerland (EWL) 0.21% 4.32% 5.84% 6.88% 15.92%
U.K. (EWU) -0.17% 1.73% -1.18% 7.05% 19.95%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) 0.83% 1.97% 11.34% 22.68% 40.99%
Brazil (EWZ) 1.60% 4.05% -12.94% 11.09% 29.83%
China (MCHI) 0.64% -1.40% -6.42% -10.87% -0.70%
India (INDA) 0.76% 3.11% -0.10% -9.31% -11.93%
Indonesia (EIDO) 0.34% 3.55% -24.31% -35.77% -30.58%
Malaysia (EWM) -0.04% 0.33% -2.66% 1.61% 17.78%
Mexico (EWW) -0.63% 0.76% -5.17% 8.65% 27.39%
South Africa (EZA) 0.94% -0.72% -10.86% -6.08% 26.24%
Taiwan (EWT) 1.11% 4.22% 37.48% 65.35% 89.37%
Thailand (THD) 1.55% 1.43% 3.48% 23.54% 46.08%

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Fixed Income

The fixed income market saw modest, widespread gains as investors digested ongoing geopolitical headlines and hawkish Fed minutes. The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) edged up 0.14%. Credit-sensitive assets outperformed, with Convertible bonds (CWB) rallying 0.93% alongside the equity market. International bonds also performed well, as the iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) gained 0.22%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Core (AGG) 0.14% 0.14% -0.32% 0.27% 3.71%
Core Enhanced (IUSB) 0.11% 0.16% -0.16% 0.44% 3.99%
Short-Term (BSV) 0.10% 0.30% 0.14% 0.50% 3.21%
Long-Term (BLV) 0.09% -0.50% -1.04% -0.51% 3.09%
Government
Long-Term (SPTL) 0.19% -0.20% -1.25% -0.84% 2.26%
Intermediate (SPTI) 0.18% 0.29% -0.55% -0.30% 2.64%
Short-Term (SPTS) 0.07% 0.27% 0.29% 0.68% 3.10%
Inflation Protected (TIP) 0.06% -0.13% 0.04% 0.99% 3.09%
Ultrashort (BIL) 0.01% 0.29% 0.89% 1.84% 3.82%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB) 0.93% 0.98% 9.82% 19.25% 28.57%
Preferred Stock (PFF) 0.36% -0.61% 0.44% 1.18% 3.39%
Mortgage Backed (MBB) 0.14% 0.28% -0.35% 0.63% 4.93%
Corporate (SPIB) 0.12% 0.26% 0.14% 0.60% 4.14%
High Yield (HYG) 0.11% 0.63% 0.84% 1.88% 5.42%
Bank Loans (BKLN) 0.05% 0.30% 0.87% 0.31% 3.92%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX) 0.40% 0.29% 0.47% 0.75% 1.86%
International Local (IGOV) 0.22% -0.98% -2.28% -2.19% -3.15%
Emerging Local (EMLC) 0.20% 1.45% 0.44% 1.66% 7.40%
Emerging USD (EMB) 0.18% 0.72% 1.75% 2.29% 9.31%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB) 0.04% -0.01% 0.32% 0.84% 2.39%
Intermediate (MUB) 0.03% 0.18% 0.75% 1.44% 5.90%
Long-Term (MLN) 0.00% 0.45% 1.11% 2.63% 9.09%
High Yield (HYD) -0.10% 0.31% 1.52% 2.53% 7.11%

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Commodities

Commodities experienced a mixed session, with a sharp decline in energy prices offsetting a rally in precious metals. WTI Crude oil (USO) dropped 2.85%, and Natural Gas (UNG) plunged 6.64% after both initially spiked on news of conflict in the Middle East. Conversely, precious metals acted as a haven, with Silver (SLV) jumping 2.48% and Gold (GLD) adding 1.00%. The broad Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) ultimately finished the day down 0.64%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) -0.64% -2.98% -3.78% 20.34% 31.76%
Agriculture
Wheat (WEAT) 1.54% 2.99% 4.73% 15.42% 1.99%
Broad (DBA) 0.33% 5.44% 3.13% 8.58% 10.70%
Sugar (CANE) 0.30% 4.07% 5.39% 2.20% -9.94%
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.40% 4.19% 3.04% 14.82% 17.12%
Corn (CORN) -0.46% 1.23% -3.58% -2.71% -0.81%
Energy
WTI Crude (USO) -2.85% -16.98% -14.14% 57.62% 41.70%
Broad (DBE) -2.89% -11.23% -5.56% 55.63% 45.48%
Brent Crude (BNO) -3.21% -16.43% -13.09% 48.91% 37.27%
Natural Gas (UNG) -6.64% -4.92% -0.46% -11.66% -23.73%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER) 1.83% -2.20% 7.21% 7.98% 10.06%
Broad (DBB) 1.66% -3.58% 2.08% 6.84% 30.91%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV) 2.48% -8.25% -20.84% -15.96% 64.06%
Palladium (PALL) 2.44% 1.79% -19.87% -21.93% 12.10%
Platinum (PPLT) 1.46% -6.46% -23.68% -21.58% 19.00%
Broad (DBP) 1.27% -4.39% -15.87% -7.89% 28.61%
Gold (GLD) 1.00% -3.22% -13.64% -4.57% 23.78%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets moved higher, participating in the broader market’s risk-on recovery throughout the day. Bitcoin (IBIT) advanced 1.65%, leading the major cryptocurrencies. The broader Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ) also posted a solid gain, reflecting positive sentiment across the crypto equity space. This performance indicates that digital assets traded in line with other risk assets, shaking off the initial geopolitical volatility.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Ethereum (ETHA) 0.61% 5.69% -21.35% -41.19% -37.10%
XRP (XRP) 0.66% -3.76% -19.17% -40.20%
Solana (SOLZ) 1.16% 19.68% -7.26% -37.75% -54.22%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) 1.46% 2.69% -13.62% -30.84% -45.11%
Bitcoin (IBIT) 1.65% 1.91% -12.47% -27.88% -43.68%

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What to Watch Today

Looking ahead to Friday, market participants will be monitoring several key reports and earnings releases. In the commodities space, the International Energy Agency (IEA) will publish its monthly report, followed by the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and the weekly Baker Hughes rig count. Additionally, the CFTC will release its weekly speculative net positions data for various assets. On the corporate front, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is scheduled to report its earnings before the market opens.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.