A Defensive Shift: Long Duration and Raw Materials Rally

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Macro Overview

Domestic and international equities experienced modest pressure during the latest session, with the U.S. Large Cap (IVV) slipping -0.24% while Developed Markets ex-U.S. (EFA) and Emerging Markets (EEM) declined -0.28% and -0.25%, respectively. The broader Fixed Income complex displayed measured strength, supported by stabilization at the long end of the duration curve. Broad Commodities (DJP) served as a definitive outlier on the day, advancing 0.97% amid sustained bids across the energy and agriculture spectrums.

U.S. Size & Style

Momentum in domestic size and style segments favored growth, with Mid Growth (IJK) acting as the sole positive performer on the day at +0.38%. This relative strength is supported by robust technical breadth, as 66.67% of IJK constituents remain above their 50-day moving averages. Conversely, Mid Value (IJJ) lagged the broader complex, dropping -0.42%. Most broad equity segments remain in technically neutral territory, with Large Cap (IVV) registering an RSI of 47.01.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Mid Growth (IJK) 0.38% 2.26% 13.76% 9.18% 13.81%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.01% 13.77% 2.28% 8.58% 13.31%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.16% 0.20% -3.21% -2.69% 12.93%
Small Value (IJS) -0.18% 17.40% 2.67% 10.07% 16.72%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.19% 15.31% 1.80% 8.94% 13.25%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.20% 13.34% 0.93% 7.79% 9.82%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.24% 3.63% -1.00% 0.40% 13.10%
Large Value (IVE) -0.33% 1.39% 7.53% 3.87% 12.84%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.42% 13.85% 2.33% 7.93% 12.49%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Defensive and cyclical value sectors exhibited notable strength, led by Utilities (XLU) and Industrials (XLI), which advanced 1.10% and 0.74% respectively. Energy (XLE) and Industrials are currently flashing technically overbought signals, maintaining RSI levels of 72.07 and 73.04. Alternatively, Financials (XLF) lagged the broader market with a -0.84% decline, weighed down by weak technical breadth where only 35.53% of constituents sit above their 50-day moving average.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Utilities (XLU) 1.10% 6.27% 5.02% 8.01% 18.16%
Industrials (XLI) 0.74% 5.66% 17.68% 13.68% 28.80%
Energy (XLE) 0.73% 15.71% 23.82% 23.42% 23.94%
Communication Services (XLC) 0.48% -0.03% 3.89% -2.19% 11.05%
Health Care (XLV) -0.26% 0.98% 3.67% 1.59% 9.30%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.35% 2.35% 7.80% 7.06% 5.64%
Materials (XLB) -0.36% 8.53% 23.86% 16.49% 19.82%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.42% 6.77% 15.51% 12.86% 10.44%
Technology (XLK) -0.50% -3.72% -0.05% -2.61% 16.50%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.67% -4.96% 3.75% -2.65% 3.63%
Financial (XLF) -0.84% -4.21% 1.49% -4.78% 1.30%

Global Thematic

Cannabis and alternative harvest themes demonstrated material outperformance, taking the top spots for the day with AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) advancing 9.69%. Junior silver miners also experienced increased bidding activity. On the downside, clean energy verticals faced distribution, with Sprott Lithium Miners (LITP) dropping -4.59% and Invesco Solar (TAN) shedding -3.16%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change
Top 5 Leaders
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) 9.69%
Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) 9.20%
Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ) 6.06%
Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) 4.09%
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) 3.44%
Bottom 5 Laggards
Putnam BDC Income ETF (PBDC) -2.05%
Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP) -2.45%
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) -3.16%
VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF (GPZ) -4.05%
Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) -4.59%

Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International performance was bifurcated. In Developed Markets, South Korea (EWY) stood out with a 1.72% daily advance, pushing its technical posture into overbought conditions (RSI 72.09). Within Emerging Markets, Thailand (THD) logged a strong 2.05% gain, exhibiting heavily overbought momentum with an RSI reading of 82.96. Conversely, India (INDA) suffered a pronounced daily setback, retreating -1.91%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets
South Korea (EWY) 1.72% 20.49% 52.70% 39.08% 137.28%
Canada (EWC) 0.51% 2.94% 13.11% 5.23% 36.49%
Australia (EWA) 0.20% 9.84% 18.08% 12.14% 21.12%
Hong Kong (EWH) 0.08% 4.61% 11.21% 10.96% 47.04%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.16% 6.03% 13.84% 7.00% 28.55%
Japan (EWJ) -0.20% 6.69% 17.32% 12.96% 37.06%
France (EWQ) -0.26% 3.58% 8.54% 4.27% 21.38%
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) -0.28% 4.54% 14.51% 8.35% 31.96%
U.K. (EWU) -0.42% 5.53% 16.48% 8.41% 35.37%
Netherlands (EWN) -0.44% 1.21% 14.04% 9.87% 36.27%
Germany (EWG) -0.54% 1.25% 11.06% 3.25% 23.70%
Emerging Markets
Thailand (THD) 2.05% 19.62% 25.91% 21.87% 33.79%
Brazil (EWZ) 1.53% 16.40% 23.11% 21.53% 56.09%
Malaysia (EWM) 0.51% 5.86% 15.05% 8.99% 28.26%
Indonesia (EIDO) -0.22% -6.84% -2.58% -4.65% 3.92%
Emerging (EEM) -0.25% 5.48% 14.98% 11.57% 40.10%
Mexico (EWW) -0.26% 8.03% 22.05% 15.30% 58.79%
China (MCHI) -0.38% -2.88% -0.71% 1.08% 15.51%
Taiwan (EWT) -0.42% 7.92% 21.63% 14.39% 43.13%
South Africa (EZA) -0.74% 3.06% 18.87% 9.03% 73.23%
India (INDA) -1.91% -1.04% -4.61% -3.24% 5.10%

Fixed Income

The yield curve saw constructive price action, particularly at the longer end, as duration-sensitive assets outperformed. Government Long (SPTL) led sovereign exposure with a 0.11% advance. Risk appetite in credit was mixed; while Municipal High Yield (HYD) gained 0.23%, floating-rate Bank Loans (BKLN) and Preferred Stock (PFF) experienced weakness, declining -0.15% and -0.22% respectively.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Taxable Long Term (BLV) 0.08% 2.02% 2.41% 2.67% 7.85%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) 0.04% 1.13% 1.85% 1.33% 7.84%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) 0.03% 0.73% 1.27% 0.64% 6.03%
Taxable Core (AGG) 0.02% 1.16% 1.80% 1.33% 7.65%
Government
Government Long (SPTL) 0.11% 2.35% 2.09% 2.86% 6.89%
Inflation Protected (TIP) 0.08% 1.12% 1.09% 1.22% 6.15%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) 0.03% 1.20% 1.31% 0.95% 7.61%
Government Short (SPTS) 0.03% 0.52% 1.09% 0.49% 5.19%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) 0.00% 0.29% 0.91% 0.46% 4.06%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB) 0.07% 1.25% 8.09% 6.58% 19.01%
Corporate (SPIB) 0.06% 0.98% 1.87% 1.04% 8.02%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) 0.04% 0.31% 2.44% 0.88% 7.55%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) 0.04% 1.12% 2.37% 1.49% 9.05%
Bank Loans (BKLN) -0.15% -1.49% 0.23% -1.21% 4.92%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.22% 0.34% 5.41% 3.00% 6.48%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX) 0.06% 1.04% 1.38% 1.50% 4.32%
International (IGOV) 0.00% 2.79% 3.88% 2.42% 11.65%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.11% 1.83% 2.73% 1.76% 13.28%
Emerging (EMLC) -0.23% 2.20% 4.80% 2.64% 18.05%
Municipals
Municipal High Yield (HYD) 0.23% 0.46% 2.04% 0.99% 3.56%
Municipal Long (MLN) 0.20% 1.02% 1.23% 1.10% 3.43%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) 0.14% 1.05% 2.13% 1.52% 4.93%
Municipal Short (SUB) -0.07% 0.38% 1.36% 0.80% 3.86%

Commodities

Raw materials posted decisive relative strength, supported heavily by the energy and agriculture complexes. WTI Crude Oil (USO) and Brent Crude Oil (BNO) both rallied over 2.2%, continuing their recent run. In agriculture, Wheat (WEAT) led daily performance with a 3.22% surge. Precious metals diverged significantly, with Silver (SLV) advancing 1.31% while Palladium (PALL) tumbled -2.37%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) 0.97% 5.80% 11.58% 10.18% 16.05%
Agriculture
Wheat (WEAT) 3.22% 7.17% 2.44% 9.26% -16.72%
Soybeans (SOYB) 0.56% 7.14% 0.34% 7.73% 6.95%
Corn (CORN) 0.29% 1.83% -1.44% -1.35% -14.57%
Agriculture (DBA) 0.23% 1.17% 2.83% 1.49% -4.93%
Sugar (CANE) -0.55% -5.79% -3.41% -6.51% -26.39%
Energy
Energy (DBE) 2.01% 12.62% 8.65% 15.88% 5.47%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) 2.25% 13.31% 14.55% 17.39% 4.83%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) 2.22% 13.97% 16.99% 20.09% 8.94%
Gasoline (UGA) 1.88% 11.21% 6.63% 15.88% 10.15%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER) -0.11% -1.11% 14.17% 1.66% 23.36%
Industrial Metals (DBB) -0.38% -0.93% 12.82% 2.62% 24.05%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV) 1.31% -12.36% 52.87% 10.23% 138.21%
Precious Metals (DBP) 0.51% 3.08% 27.18% 13.68% 77.24%
Gold (GLD) 0.28% 9.08% 22.56% 15.96% 69.67%
Platinum (PPLT) -0.43% -9.95% 34.09% 1.08% 110.79%
Palladium (PALL) -2.37% -6.24% 21.12% 5.19% 71.59%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets managed to string together a slight positive session amidst intense medium-term pressure. Bitcoin (IBIT) generated a 1.41% daily bounce, though it remains down -23.32% year-to-date. Solana (SOLZ) added 1.18%, acting as a leader for alternative coins. XRP was the notable laggard across the complex, continuing its downward trend with a -0.63% decline for the day.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
XRP -0.63% -32.20% -22.95%
Ethereum (ETHA) 0.62% -40.84% -33.81% -34.37% -28.58%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) 1.05% -31.80% -27.15% -25.04% -32.12%
Solana (SOLZ) 1.18% -43.56% -38.96% -34.16%
Bitcoin (IBIT) 1.41% -29.81% -24.96% -23.32% -30.34%

What to Watch Today

With major equity indices showing near-term consolidation and momentum indicators cooling, market participants will closely monitor upcoming economic data releases for directional cues. Stabilization in long-duration fixed income alongside defensive sector leadership—such as Utilities—suggests a more cautious posture among investors. Traders should watch whether the recent strength in the energy complex and hard commodities persists, potentially acting as a leading indicator for broader inflation expectations or shifting growth narratives.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.