Macro Overview
U.S. equities began February on a strong note, with the S&P 500 (IVV) rising 0.51% as a multi-year high in ISM Manufacturing data fueled a resurgence in the “Buy America” trade. Market sentiment was further bolstered by a simmer in geopolitical tensions following diplomatic discussions with Iran, though a strengthening U.S. dollar—triggered by the hawkish undertones of Kevin Warsh’s nomination to lead the Fed—weighed heavily on precious metals (DJP). While international developed markets (EFA) gained 0.66%, the most significant outlier was Natural Gas (UNG), which plummeted nearly 25% on a massive supply-side shift, contrasting with the general optimism across industrial sectors. Fixed income remained largely defensive as yields bear-flattened, with most core segments trading lower on the day.
U.S. Size & Style
Small and mid-cap segments led the charge today, with Small Growth (IJT) and Mid Growth (IJK) posting gains of 1.18% and 1.09%, respectively, as investors leaned back into domestic risk. Technically, Large Value (IVE) reached a 52-week high today, backed by an RSI of 62.81 and a healthy breadth reading showing 64.19% of constituents trading above their 50-day SMA. While Large Growth (IVW) was the relative laggard at +0.31%, the overall technical picture remains firm, with the Small Cap Blend (IJR) maintaining a robust 10.78% cushion above its 200-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Growth (IJT) | 1.18% | 4.86% | 7.45% | 5.98% | 7.39% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | 1.04% | 5.75% | 9.47% | 6.80% | 10.02% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | 1.09% | 3.47% | 6.16% | 5.08% | 8.71% |
| Small Value (IJS) | 1.00% | 6.65% | 11.51% | 7.55% | 12.66% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | 0.84% | 3.50% | 7.18% | 4.92% | 8.64% |
| Large Value (IVE) | 0.83% | 2.95% | 5.40% | 3.29% | 13.58% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | 0.66% | 3.53% | 8.44% | 4.70% | 8.22% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | 0.51% | 1.80% | 2.30% | 1.99% | 17.01% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | 0.31% | 0.76% | -0.30% | 0.83% | 19.82% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
The Industrials (XLI) sector reached a new 52-week high today, gaining 1.26% on the back of explosive ISM data and showing exceptional breadth with 76.25% of its constituents above their 50-day SMA. Consumer Staples (XLP) surged 1.19% but has moved into overbought territory with an RSI of 73.49, suggesting a potential near-term cooling period. Conversely, Energy (XLE) was the day’s primary laggard, falling 1.96% after President Trump’s Iranian outreach cooled the geopolitical risk premium, though the sector remains 13.50% above its 200-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrials (XLI) | 1.26% | 6.05% | 8.41% | 8.00% | 22.74% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 1.19% | 8.77% | 11.67% | 8.78% | 9.91% |
| Financial (XLF) | 1.10% | -1.64% | 3.53% | -1.35% | 6.42% |
| Technology (XLK) | 0.96% | 0.67% | -3.23% | 0.90% | 26.64% |
| Materials (XLB) | 0.77% | 7.65% | 16.50% | 9.48% | 14.04% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | 0.66% | 3.06% | 1.87% | 2.14% | 5.96% |
| Health Care (XLV) | 0.61% | 0.12% | 8.39% | 0.57% | 7.86% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.34% | 2.37% | 4.57% | 1.66% | 18.30% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -1.13% | 1.44% | 1.23% | 1.51% | 2.26% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -1.46% | -1.30% | -3.62% | -0.16% | 12.56% |
| Energy (XLE) | -1.96% | 9.64% | 14.54% | 11.94% | 18.04% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance today was dominated by health innovation and artificial intelligence, with Clinical-Stage Biotech (SBIO) leading all themes with a 2.46% gain. Infrastructure (PAVE) and AI Infrastructure (TCAI) also saw significant daily bids following the strong domestic manufacturing data. On the downside, digital assets and uranium miners faced heavy selling pressure, with Uranium & Nuclear Energy (URA) falling 3.13% as investors repositioned following the latest Fed leadership announcements.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Thematic Leaders | |
| Clinical-Stage Biotech (SBIO) | 2.46% |
| American Reshoring (RSHO) | 2.34% |
| AI Supercycle (AIS) | 2.16% |
| Building & Construction (PKB) | 2.14% |
| AI Infrastructure (TCAI) | 2.03% |
| Thematic Laggards | |
| Blockchain (BLOK) | -1.68% |
| Metaverse & Web3 (METV) | -1.60% |
| Crypto Miners (WGMI) | -1.38% |
| Robotics & Automation (BOTZ) | -1.21% |
| Uranium & Nuclear Energy (URA) | -3.13% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
India (INDA) was the standout performer in Emerging Markets today, surging 2.98% after a major trade agreement with the EU boosted investor sentiment toward the region’s growth prospects. South Korea (EWY) saw a sharp reversal, falling 1.21% on the day, although it remains significantly overextended technically with an RSI of 69.82 and trading 147.20% above its 52-week low. Switzerland (EWL) led the developed nations with a 1.15% gain, while Indonesia (EIDO) plunged into oversold territory with an RSI of 28.65, currently trading 9.42% below its 52-week high.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets ex-U.S. | |||||
| Switzerland (EWL) | 1.15% | 3.17% | 12.45% | 3.82% | 27.97% |
| Germany (EWG) | 0.86% | 2.16% | 6.75% | 2.31% | 27.63% |
| U.K. (EWU) | 0.82% | 4.68% | 11.19% | 5.82% | 35.96% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | 0.80% | 7.04% | 10.84% | 10.06% | 42.49% |
| France (EWQ) | 0.73% | 0.82% | 3.69% | 1.53% | 21.54% |
| Australia (EWA) | 0.72% | 5.59% | 6.20% | 6.72% | 17.28% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | 0.66% | 4.49% | 9.27% | 5.59% | 32.54% |
| Canada (EWC) | 0.53% | 0.66% | 8.47% | 1.15% | 34.42% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 0.20% | 5.61% | 6.82% | 6.38% | 31.55% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -0.56% | 6.31% | 11.44% | 9.41% | 48.58% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -1.21% | 18.30% | 27.51% | 24.39% | 129.17% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| India (INDA) | 2.98% | -2.35% | -1.28% | -1.42% | 4.49% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | 1.29% | 6.44% | 8.20% | 8.52% | 40.17% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | 1.11% | 16.30% | 24.46% | 17.88% | 55.95% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | 0.48% | 6.93% | 15.22% | 7.16% | 29.88% |
| Mexico (EWW) | 0.41% | 8.28% | 15.58% | 8.80% | 59.84% |
| Emerging (EEM) | 0.30% | 5.41% | 8.74% | 8.35% | 42.11% |
| South Africa (EZA) | 0.07% | 5.55% | 21.18% | 6.47% | 78.72% |
| Thailand (THD) | -0.24% | 5.17% | 5.22% | 5.60% | 13.51% |
| China (MCHI) | -1.27% | -1.01% | -1.89% | 2.56% | 30.09% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -1.36% | -7.44% | -3.84% | -6.90% | -1.36% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income markets were generally defensive today as investors priced in a more hawkish Fed Chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, resulting in a bear-flattening yield curve. Long-term Treasuries (SPTL) and high-duration corporate bonds saw the most pressure, falling 0.29%, while the specialty space offered some relief through Convertibles (CWB), which gained 0.54%. Credit spreads remain tight, supporting modest gains in Bank Loans (BKLN) even as core taxable aggregates (AGG) slipped 0.12%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.05% | 0.20% | 0.60% | 0.18% | 6.99% |
| Short-Term (BSV) | -0.06% | 0.11% | 0.90% | 0.10% | 5.64% |
| Core (AGG) | -0.12% | 0.16% | 0.46% | 0.13% | 6.79% |
| Long-Term (BLV) | -0.22% | 0.14% | -1.30% | -0.05% | 5.84% |
| Government | |||||
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.02% | 0.27% | 0.94% | 0.31% | 4.11% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | -0.06% | 0.14% | 0.91% | 0.11% | 4.83% |
| Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.13% | -0.09% | 0.37% | -0.16% | 6.60% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.26% | 0.30% | -0.15% | 0.25% | 5.59% |
| Long-Term (SPTL) | -0.29% | -0.22% | -2.08% | -0.41% | 4.30% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Convertible (CWB) | 0.54% | 3.71% | 1.27% | 5.28% | 19.12% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | 0.14% | -0.63% | 0.96% | -0.59% | 5.73% |
| High Yield (HYG) | 0.06% | 0.62% | 1.92% | 0.67% | 7.86% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.06% | 0.21% | 1.14% | 0.24% | 7.54% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.13% | 0.45% | 1.10% | 0.36% | 8.17% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.17% | 1.17% | 2.73% | 2.19% | 5.92% |
| International & EM | |||||
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | 0.12% | 1.74% | 4.91% | 1.98% | 18.84% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.03% | 0.26% | 1.10% | 0.29% | 12.28% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.06% | 0.48% | -0.24% | 0.46% | 3.09% |
| International Local (IGOV) | -0.45% | 1.49% | 1.54% | 1.34% | 10.96% |
| Municipals | |||||
| High Yield (HYD) | 0.15% | 0.05% | 1.16% | 0.13% | 2.86% |
| Intermediate (MUB) | 0.08% | 0.65% | 1.23% | 0.77% | 4.59% |
| Long-Term (MLN) | 0.07% | -0.13% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 2.61% |
| Short-Term (SUB) | 0.00% | 0.55% | 1.37% | 0.58% | 3.78% |
Commodities
The commodity complex suffered a broad-based liquidation today, led by a 24.85% crash in Natural Gas (UNG) as winter storm fears dissipated. Precious metals were also hit hard by the dollar’s recovery, with Gold (GLD) and Silver (SLV) shedding 4.00% and 3.98%, respectively, in a sharp correction from their recent record highs. Industrial metals (DBB) were not immune, sliding nearly 2% despite the positive manufacturing print, as a stronger greenback acted as a persistent headwind across the space.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -5.70% | 6.29% | 9.55% | 6.46% | 19.20% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.04% | 0.35% | 0.76% | 0.51% | -3.73% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -0.33% | -3.86% | -0.97% | -5.59% | -19.79% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.54% | 1.37% | -4.41% | 1.19% | -0.18% |
| Corn (CORN) | -1.14% | -1.99% | -2.89% | -2.54% | -12.68% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -1.91% | 2.85% | -2.97% | 3.00% | -16.89% |
| Energy | |||||
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | -5.07% | 10.73% | 5.78% | 10.45% | 0.32% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | -5.27% | 9.24% | 3.82% | 8.92% | -3.45% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | -6.65% | 8.93% | 2.84% | 8.50% | 3.09% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -24.85% | 5.31% | -4.15% | 3.59% | -21.56% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Copper (CPER) | -1.51% | 2.57% | 13.80% | 2.63% | 33.63% |
| Broad-based (DBB) | -1.92% | 2.30% | 10.15% | 2.62% | 29.43% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Palladium (PALL) | 1.48% | 4.81% | 18.58% | 7.40% | 68.93% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -0.21% | 0.07% | 35.60% | 4.40% | 116.77% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | -3.88% | 7.31% | 24.16% | 8.40% | 76.36% |
| Silver (SLV) | -3.98% | 10.17% | 64.60% | 12.45% | 154.09% |
| Gold (GLD) | -4.00% | 7.24% | 16.03% | 7.78% | 65.20% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced a difficult session as Ethereum (ETHA) plummeted over 13% today, driven by massive deleveraging after breaching technical support levels. Bitcoin (IBIT) dropped 6.89%, while Solana (SOLZ) was even harder hit, shedding 11.24%. Despite the daily carnage, the 1-year performance for most major assets remains significantly negative, illustrating the depth of the current “crypto winter” narrative that has persisted into early 2026.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -13.24% | -25.78% | -40.40% | -21.98% | -30.33% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | -11.24% | -21.11% | -45.77% | -16.77% | N/A |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -8.45% | -15.38% | -31.80% | -12.52% | N/A |
| XRP | -7.14% | -18.60% | N/A | -11.94% | N/A |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -6.89% | -13.19% | -29.02% | -10.94% | -23.38% |
What to Watch Today
Market attention remains squarely on the evolving transition at the Federal Reserve and the ongoing Q4 2025 earnings season. Investors are closely monitoring the Senate’s reaction to Kevin Warsh’s nomination as the next Fed Chair, as his hawkish reputation is already shifting inflation expectations and steepening the Treasury yield curve. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the Friday nonfarm payroll report is the critical macro anchor, with median estimates looking for a gain of 68,000 jobs. Additionally, traders will be parsing new trade data and potential policy updates regarding the newly announced deal with India to see if the “Buy America” bullish momentum can be sustained into the second quarter.
