Stocks Snap Losing Streak as Oil Retreats

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities broke a four-session slide as the S&P 500 (IVV) advanced 0.84%, with gains led by technology and industrials even as hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints pushed fed funds futures to price a near 90% probability of a rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Developed ex-U.S. markets outperformed, with Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) up 0.98%, while Emerging Markets (EEM) led the major regions with a 1.25% gain, extending its 24.62% year-to-date advance. Fixed income was little changed to slightly lower, with Core Bonds (AGG) down 0.07% as longer-dated Treasuries outperformed on rate-hike positioning. Broad Commodities (DJP) was the session’s outlier, falling 1.52% as crude oil retreated intraday despite Brent trading above $100/barrel earlier in the week on Middle East supply concerns, a pullback that helped equities look past the sticky inflation data.

U.S. Size & Style

Large-cap benchmarks led the size spectrum, with Large Value (IVE) up 0.89% and Large Cap (IVV) up 0.84%, both showing balanced RSI readings near 50 that suggest neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Mid-cap and small-cap segments participated but with less breadth support, as Small Cap (IJR) gained only 0.53% with an RSI of 37 and just 32% of constituents trading above their 50-day moving average. Small Growth (IJT) posted the weakest 1-day gain at 0.48% and carries an RSI of 34, approaching oversold territory after a 5.65% one-month decline. The divergence in monthly returns—large caps roughly flat to slightly negative versus mid- and small-caps down 3-6% over the past month—points to a rotation back toward larger, more liquid names amid rate uncertainty.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.89%-0.44%4.00%11.81%17.05%
Large Cap (IVV)0.84%-0.82%3.90%12.71%17.57%
Large Growth (IVW)0.82%-1.10%3.67%13.22%17.66%
Mid Value (IJJ)0.79%-3.41%0.16%11.11%11.45%
Mid Cap (IJH)0.79%-4.28%-1.16%13.33%13.39%
Mid Growth (IJK)0.88%-4.98%-2.30%15.36%14.96%
Small Value (IJS)0.58%-2.81%0.88%19.11%22.15%
Small Cap (IJR)0.53%-4.19%0.23%18.86%19.94%
Small Growth (IJT)0.48%-5.65%-0.55%18.28%17.60%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology (XLK) led all sectors with a 1.32% gain, supported by standout single-stock moves in hardware names and an RSI of 55 with 60% of constituents above their 50-day average. Industrials (XLI) rose 1.07% despite a weak technical backdrop, with only 20% of members above the 50-day line following a 7.18% one-month decline. Communication Services (XLC) advanced 0.99%, consistent with reports that the sector led S&P 500 gains broadly. Energy (XLE) was the laggard among gainers, up just 0.32% with an RSI of 66 approaching overbought levels after a 47.68% year-to-date rally, while Utilities (XLU) and Health Care (XLV) were the only sectors in the red, down 0.31% and 0.18% respectively.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)0.85%-0.81%3.86%12.68%17.50%
Technology (XLK)1.32%0.85%2.56%30.67%39.19%
Industrials (XLI)1.07%-7.18%-1.35%11.70%14.25%
Communication Services (XLC)0.99%1.20%0.69%-3.79%-2.03%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)0.89%-5.27%-2.67%-5.02%-4.10%
Real Estate (XLRE)0.86%-1.50%-2.50%9.26%5.56%
Financials (XLF)0.67%-0.95%9.18%5.43%7.59%
Materials (XLB)0.37%-4.30%-0.15%13.26%12.02%
Consumer Staples (XLP)0.35%-1.55%-1.53%8.69%6.35%
Energy (XLE)0.32%6.91%14.85%47.68%50.69%
Health Care (XLV)-0.18%-1.58%7.78%7.73%20.41%
Utilities (XLU)-0.31%-2.84%-3.16%0.62%2.42%

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Global Thematic

Digital infrastructure and AI-adjacent themes led thematic strategies, with the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI) up 3.25% and the Tortoise AI Infrastructure ETF (TCAI) gaining 3.18%, tracking the broader technology sector’s strength. Uranium and nuclear-linked funds were the session’s clear laggards, with the Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) falling 5.57% and the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) down 4.12%. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) declined 3.27%, and the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) fell 2.57%, marking a sharp reversal for commodity-adjacent materials themes. The dispersion underscores rotation into technology infrastructure plays at the expense of resource-linked strategies during the session.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI)3.25%
Tortoise AI Infrastructure ETF (TCAI)3.18%
iShares U.S. Digital Infrastructure and Real Estate ETF (IDGT)3.07%
Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)2.77%
VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS)2.73%
Laggards
Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ)-5.57%
Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)-4.12%
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR)-3.91%
Global X Uranium ETF (URA)-3.27%
VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX)-2.57%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

South Korea (EWY) and Japan (EWJ) were standout developed-market performers, up 3.25% and 2.20% respectively, with South Korea’s 94.12% year-to-date return continuing to dwarf regional peers. Taiwan (EWT) added 1.83% within the emerging markets complex, extending a 74.58% year-to-date advance. Brazil (EWZ) was a notable laggard, down 0.96% despite a strong 12.39% one-month gain, while Indonesia (EIDO) slipped 0.78%, remaining down 30.60% year-to-date. China (MCHI) edged up 0.30% but remains down 11.26% for the year, contrasting with the broader Emerging Markets (EEM) benchmark’s 24.62% advance.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)0.98%-1.29%3.48%12.86%18.20%
Australia (EWA)0.65%-2.27%2.50%13.34%10.16%
Canada (EWC)0.48%-1.51%4.06%12.86%23.01%
France (EWQ)0.69%-5.79%-1.16%2.24%6.21%
Germany (EWG)0.59%-2.55%3.44%2.88%5.63%
Hong Kong (EWH)0.22%0.18%4.57%7.67%7.18%
Japan (EWJ)2.20%2.37%7.49%22.72%26.46%
Netherlands (EWN)0.46%-2.29%-1.77%20.10%30.59%
South Korea (EWY)3.25%12.84%-5.14%94.12%147.90%
Switzerland (EWL)0.00%-5.83%-2.45%2.35%9.35%
U.K. (EWU)0.86%-0.75%3.69%10.58%17.50%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)1.25%3.68%1.01%24.62%32.27%
Brazil (EWZ)-0.96%12.39%10.76%21.36%32.91%
China (MCHI)0.30%-4.78%-1.90%-11.26%-15.96%
India (INDA)0.96%-3.03%1.63%-10.14%-8.77%
Indonesia (EIDO)-0.78%2.16%7.08%-30.60%-25.71%
Malaysia (EWM)-0.50%-1.10%0.90%3.55%13.63%
Mexico (EWW)0.17%-1.13%-1.11%10.32%18.66%
South Africa (EZA)0.81%2.20%8.00%4.05%24.70%
Taiwan (EWT)1.83%6.71%8.26%74.58%84.92%
Thailand (THD)-0.08%1.65%2.13%27.11%25.67%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income was broadly stable, with Short-Term Treasuries (BSV) down 0.10% and Core Bonds (AGG) off 0.07% as investors positioned for next week’s FOMC decision. Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) were roughly flat, up 0.02%, consistent with reported outperformance in longer-dated maturities as the 10-year yield slipped to 4.94%. Preferred Stock (PFF) and Convertibles (CWB) posted the strongest gains in the category, up 0.60% and 0.66% respectively, tracking the equity rally. Inflation Protected Securities (TIP) declined 0.46%, the sharpest move in the space, despite the hotter CPI print, suggesting the rate-hike repricing outweighed inflation-hedge demand.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Long-Term (BLV)0.02%-1.19%-4.52%-3.67%-4.89%
Core (AGG)-0.07%-1.03%-1.93%-1.30%-0.74%
Short-Term (BSV)-0.10%-0.61%-0.40%0.02%1.13%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)-0.10%-1.02%-1.73%-1.00%-0.32%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL)0.03%0.32%0.92%2.50%3.71%
Long-Term (SPTL)-0.04%-1.23%-4.37%-4.07%-5.37%
Short-Term (SPTS)-0.14%-0.37%0.01%0.60%1.80%
Intermediate (SPTI)-0.14%-1.31%-1.64%-1.77%-1.18%
Inflation Protected (TIP)-0.46%-0.98%-1.77%-0.41%-1.02%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB)0.66%-0.83%-2.38%16.31%18.03%
Preferred Stock (PFF)0.60%-0.96%-1.42%0.78%-0.81%
Bank Loans (BKLN)0.00%0.90%2.34%2.20%4.61%
High Yield (HYG)-0.03%-0.60%-0.20%1.45%2.89%
Corporate (SPIB)-0.09%-1.00%-1.23%-0.57%0.42%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)-0.11%-1.41%-2.26%-1.27%-0.10%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX)0.05%-1.48%-1.75%-0.92%-0.72%
International Local (IGOV)-0.02%-0.78%-1.40%-1.78%-3.10%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.07%-1.14%-1.78%0.37%2.82%
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.08%-0.08%1.56%2.70%6.09%
Municipals
Intermediate (MUB)0.44%-2.33%-2.84%-1.59%0.05%
Long-Term (MLN)0.30%-4.13%-4.11%-2.05%-0.08%
High Yield (HYD)0.25%-2.41%-3.37%-1.19%0.84%
Short-Term (SUB)0.08%-0.52%-0.20%0.58%0.88%

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Commodities

Broad Commodities (DJP) fell 1.52% as energy-linked funds pulled back sharply, with Brent Crude (BNO) down 2.79% and WTI Crude (USO) down 2.20% intraday even as Brent had earlier traded above $100/barrel on Middle East supply-disruption fears tied to escalating fighting and the seizure of Yemen’s Mokha port. Agricultural commodities also retreated, with Soybeans (SOYB) down 2.27% and Sugar (CANE) down 2.54%. Precious metals moved higher, with Gold (GLD) up 0.61% and Palladium (PALL) up 1.68%, consistent with reports that gold firmed over 1% on safe-haven demand tied to rate and geopolitical uncertainty. Industrial metals were mixed, with Copper (CPER) up a modest 0.36%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)-1.52%8.44%13.64%39.78%51.67%
Agriculture
Corn (CORN)-0.45%13.38%19.14%12.35%13.18%
Broad (DBA)-1.33%4.86%10.00%13.36%9.33%
Wheat (WEAT)-1.72%10.71%17.03%31.45%25.60%
Soybeans (SOYB)-2.27%10.34%14.01%25.80%24.38%
Sugar (CANE)-2.54%6.37%22.03%18.09%8.83%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG)-0.20%0.99%-8.87%-17.05%-18.12%
WTI Crude (USO)-2.20%21.39%20.24%123.97%112.19%
Brent Crude (BNO)-2.79%20.43%24.91%116.70%105.87%
Broad (DBE)-2.97%17.77%23.60%112.88%105.06%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)0.36%-2.59%0.62%12.07%36.04%
Broad (DBB)0.28%-1.09%-0.20%10.77%29.07%
Precious Metals
Palladium (PALL)1.68%-4.64%1.77%-18.76%8.64%
Silver (SLV)1.08%-0.73%-4.44%-9.78%53.80%
Platinum (PPLT)0.81%3.04%4.03%-12.78%28.75%
Broad (DBP)0.65%-0.57%1.48%-2.49%23.42%
Gold (GLD)0.61%-0.55%3.22%0.62%19.12%

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Cryptocurrency

Crypto-linked ETFs advanced across the board, led by Ethereum (ETHA), up 3.23% and extending a 35.12% one-month gain, while Solana (SOLZ) rose 2.52%. Bitcoin (IBIT) posted a more modest 0.21% gain, trailing its peers despite a 21.79% one-month advance. XRP (XRP) added 1.00%, while the Multi-Coin ETF (NCIQ) rose 0.36%. Despite recent one-month strength across the category, all five crypto products remain deeply negative on a year-to-date basis, with declines ranging from 11.84% for Bitcoin to 25.83% for XRP.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Bitcoin (IBIT)0.21%21.79%21.41%-11.84%-32.69%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)0.36%24.04%24.82%-13.73%-37.43%
XRP (XRP)1.00%34.45%19.09%-25.83%
Solana (SOLZ)2.52%34.78%52.23%-19.06%-57.31%
Ethereum (ETHA)3.23%35.12%50.87%-14.58%-42.79%

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What to Watch Today

Monday, September 14 brings no major U.S. economic data releases, though markets will focus on the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day FOMC meeting, with futures markets assigning roughly a 90% probability of a rate hike at the September 16 decision. Canada’s inflation reading is due Monday, while China’s Retail Sales, Industrial Output, and House Prices data for August are scheduled for Tuesday. Several multi-day investor conferences begin Monday, including the Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference, the H.C. Wainwright Global Investment Conference, and the Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conference. Earnings are limited, with CODA, HAIN, and RFIL reporting before the open and HYFT, KMTS, PLAY, and RLGT after the close.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.