Macro Overview
U.S. Size & Style
Value and mid-cap segments bore the brunt of Wednesday’s selling, with Mid Value (IJJ) down 0.99% and Large Value (IVE) off 0.86%, both underperforming their growth counterparts. Large Growth (IVW) slipped just 0.07%, and Small Growth (IJT) was essentially flat at -0.02%, reflecting relative resilience in growth-oriented names during the rate-driven selloff. RSI readings across small- and mid-cap value products remain in oversold territory, with Small Growth at 27 and Mid Value at 31, while only 20-28% of constituents across these segments trade above their 50-day moving averages. Small Cap (IJR) has fallen 6.96% over the past month, underscoring the broader pressure on rate-sensitive smaller companies following the Fed’s hawkish tilt. Year-to-date, small value (17.44%) and small cap (17.00%) still lead the size/style spectrum despite the recent pullback.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.86% | -2.49% | 1.39% | 10.31% | 15.83% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.43% | -2.85% | 0.77% | 11.23% | 15.61% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -0.07% | -3.18% | 0.21% | 11.72% | 15.13% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.99% | -6.01% | -2.41% | 9.07% | 11.06% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -0.59% | -7.18% | -3.83% | 11.18% | 12.77% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.16% | -8.15% | -5.23% | 13.10% | 14.30% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.71% | -5.61% | -0.61% | 17.44% | 22.12% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.42% | -6.96% | -1.86% | 17.00% | 19.74% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.02% | -8.37% | -3.23% | 16.22% | 17.16% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Energy (XLE) was the day’s clear laggard, sliding 2.88% as crude oil prices eased even while remaining above the $100 threshold amid the U.S.-Iran conflict; the sector nonetheless retains a 45.16% year-to-date gain and an RSI of 54. Financials (XLF) dropped 1.62%, the second-worst performer, likely reflecting the yield curve dynamics following the Fed’s hike and hawkish dot plot. Technology (XLK) and Health Care (XLV) were the only sectors to post gains, up 0.10% and 0.07% respectively, with Technology’s year-to-date advance of 28.06% remaining the strongest among all eleven sectors. Utilities (XLU) closed flat but carries an RSI of 29, signaling oversold conditions after a 6.75% monthly decline. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) remains the weakest sector on a trailing basis, down 7.36% year-to-date, with only 11% of its constituents trading above their 50-day moving average.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | -0.44% | -2.87% | 0.75% | 11.17% | 15.51% |
| Technology (XLK) | 0.10% | -3.20% | -1.23% | 28.06% | 35.76% |
| Health Care (XLV) | 0.07% | 0.24% | 10.18% | 9.30% | 24.65% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 0.00% | -6.75% | -7.72% | -1.92% | 0.94% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.08% | -9.54% | -5.96% | 9.33% | 12.54% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.48% | -3.21% | -1.96% | 8.63% | 7.39% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | -0.60% | -5.43% | -4.26% | 7.73% | 5.29% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.63% | -6.79% | -6.80% | -7.36% | -8.30% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.73% | -4.15% | -4.12% | 11.95% | 13.11% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.90% | 0.04% | 0.87% | -3.45% | -3.46% |
| Financials (XLF) | -1.62% | -3.83% | 3.27% | 3.00% | 6.04% |
| Energy (XLE) | -2.88% | 3.42% | 16.48% | 45.16% | 47.05% |
Global Thematic
Thematic flows favored optics and semiconductor-adjacent names, with the Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) leading all funds at 6.36% and the Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR) advancing 4.94%, coinciding with reports of a potential Intel-SK Hynix partnership in AI-related memory production. The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI) also gained 3.46% despite softness in underlying crypto assets. On the downside, natural resources and crypto-industry themes lagged, with the First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT) falling 2.94% and the iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE) down 2.33%, consistent with the day’s broader energy and commodity weakness. Gold-related natural resource plays such as the Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) also declined 2.21% alongside softer precious metals pricing.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day |
|---|---|
| Leaders | |
| Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) | 6.36% |
| Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (LAZR) | 4.94% |
| Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO) | 3.69% |
| CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI) | 3.46% |
| Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX) | 3.11% |
| Laggards | |
| First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT) | -2.94% |
| iShares North American Natural Resources ETF (IGE) | -2.33% |
| American Beacon GLG Natural Resources ETF (MGNR) | -2.25% |
| Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) | -2.21% |
| Sarmaya Thematic ETF (LENS) | -2.20% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Within developed markets, South Africa-adjacent… wait, South Africa is EM. Developed international performance was broadly negative, with Australia (EWA) down 1.38% and Hong Kong (EWH) off 0.85%, while Japan (EWJ) bucked the trend with a 0.09% gain and continues to lead developed markets year-to-date at 20.79%. Emerging markets showed wider dispersion: South Africa (EZA) fell 1.99% and Thailand (THD) declined 1.81%, while Taiwan (EWT) advanced 1.62%, extending its remarkable 70.63% year-to-date and 79.08% one-year gains. South Korea (EWY) slipped 0.54% on the day but remains up 80.56% year-to-date, the standout performer across all regional exposures. China (MCHI) and India (INDA) each remain in negative territory year-to-date, down 12.35% and 12.19% respectively, continuing to lag the broader emerging markets complex.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets ex-U.S. | |||||
| Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.36% | -3.33% | 0.68% | 11.08% | 16.35% |
| Australia (EWA) | -1.38% | -3.91% | -1.69% | 10.32% | 7.34% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.71% | -3.81% | 1.27% | 11.51% | 21.16% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.32% | -6.99% | -4.31% | 0.47% | 3.67% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.24% | -3.92% | 1.58% | 1.82% | 5.16% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -0.85% | -0.49% | 2.53% | 6.53% | 7.50% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 0.09% | -1.22% | 3.07% | 20.79% | 24.42% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -0.11% | -7.51% | -4.17% | 17.25% | 24.63% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -0.54% | -2.34% | -14.75% | 80.56% | 122.50% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.33% | -5.09% | -3.04% | 1.92% | 10.15% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.71% | -1.66% | 2.04% | 9.47% | 17.16% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Emerging Markets (EEM) | -0.06% | -1.34% | -4.25% | 20.73% | 26.35% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.79% | 10.46% | 8.92% | 19.10% | 27.72% |
| China (MCHI) | -1.13% | -4.25% | -3.36% | -12.35% | -17.82% |
| India (INDA) | -0.27% | -4.66% | -3.95% | -12.19% | -11.90% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -1.41% | 0.08% | -0.39% | -31.36% | -27.39% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.33% | -1.93% | -1.68% | 2.43% | 11.48% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -1.54% | -2.83% | -6.53% | 6.67% | 12.87% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -1.99% | 0.03% | -0.72% | 0.26% | 19.30% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | 1.62% | 1.24% | 4.44% | 70.63% | 79.08% |
| Thailand (THD) | -1.81% | -2.39% | -2.08% | 21.91% | 19.50% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income was mixed but largely subdued following the Fed’s rate decision, with short-duration products like Short-Term Treasuries (BSV) down 0.09% as two-year yields rose to their highest levels since 2024. Longer-duration Treasuries proved more resilient, with Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) gaining 0.20% and (SPTL) up 0.16%, suggesting the long end absorbed the hawkish surprise differently than the front end. Credit markets were steady, with High Yield (HYG) up 0.05% and Preferred Stock (PFF) advancing 0.23%. Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) declined 0.38%, while International USD bonds (BNDX) rose 0.21% amid a stronger dollar backdrop. Trailing three-month returns remain negative across most core and long-duration categories, reflecting the broader rate-hiking cycle.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Long-Term (BLV) | 0.20% | -1.05% | -4.56% | -3.55% | -4.84% |
| Core (AGG) | -0.04% | -1.37% | -2.19% | -1.47% | -1.04% |
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.04% | -1.33% | -2.03% | -1.18% | -0.56% |
| Short-Term (BSV) | -0.09% | -0.94% | -0.63% | -0.12% | 0.87% |
| Government | |||||
| Long-Term (SPTL) | 0.16% | -1.15% | -4.66% | -4.07% | -5.40% |
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.28% | 0.89% | 2.51% | 3.66% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | -0.10% | -0.65% | -0.16% | 0.49% | 1.59% |
| Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.11% | -1.80% | -2.10% | -2.09% | -1.53% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.38% | -1.50% | -2.33% | -0.83% | -1.50% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | 0.23% | -2.57% | -2.77% | -0.06% | -1.82% |
| Convertible (CWB) | 0.08% | -5.67% | -7.89% | 13.76% | 14.54% |
| High Yield (HYG) | 0.05% | -1.08% | -0.54% | 1.22% | 2.54% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBB) | -0.02% | -1.76% | -2.61% | -1.44% | -0.51% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.03% | -1.21% | -1.38% | -0.66% | 0.21% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.10% | 0.85% | 2.24% | 2.40% | 4.66% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.21% | -1.32% | -2.10% | -0.96% | -0.69% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.08% | -1.66% | -2.48% | 0.07% | 2.51% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | -0.44% | -1.68% | -1.27% | 1.25% | 3.85% |
| International Local (IGOV) | -0.66% | -2.09% | -3.31% | -3.17% | -5.05% |
| Municipals | |||||
| High Yield (HYD) | 0.12% | -2.89% | -3.90% | -1.65% | 0.10% |
| Long-Term (MLN) | 0.06% | -4.38% | -4.92% | -2.58% | -0.95% |
| Short-Term (SUB) | -0.04% | -0.61% | -0.39% | 0.49% | 0.94% |
| Intermediate (MUB) | -0.05% | -2.60% | -3.27% | -1.93% | -0.48% |
Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →
Commodities
Energy commodities drove the day’s commodity weakness, with WTI Crude (USO) falling 3.52% and Brent Crude (BNO) down 2.91%, even as prices held above $100 per barrel amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Precious metals also softened, with Palladium (PALL) down 2.03% and Platinum (PPLT) declining 1.49%, while Gold (GLD) slipped 0.61%. Agricultural commodities were mixed, with Wheat (WEAT) gaining 0.87% while Broad Agriculture (DBA) eased 0.21%. Despite the daily pullback, energy remains the standout performer on a trailing basis, with USO up 125.81% year-to-date, keeping Broad Commodities (DJP) firmly ahead of equities and bonds over the past year at 49.55%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -0.63% | 9.52% | 17.01% | 41.56% | 49.55% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Wheat (WEAT) | 0.87% | 6.33% | 16.70% | 32.95% | 23.78% |
| Sugar (CANE) | 0.09% | 5.86% | 20.78% | 16.76% | 7.35% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 0.07% | 10.25% | 14.91% | 27.95% | 24.87% |
| Broad (DBA) | -0.21% | 3.78% | 8.10% | 12.93% | 7.54% |
| Corn (CORN) | -0.35% | 9.36% | 17.96% | 12.63% | 11.19% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -1.71% | 4.44% | -11.90% | -15.50% | -21.63% |
| Brent Crude (BNO) | -2.91% | 21.86% | 40.60% | 117.90% | 100.10% |
| Broad (DBE) | -2.95% | 20.47% | 36.71% | 116.66% | 102.23% |
| WTI Crude (USO) | -3.52% | 23.36% | 35.25% | 125.81% | 106.38% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad (DBB) | 0.20% | -0.90% | -1.14% | 9.81% | 26.03% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.21% | -3.55% | -2.43% | 10.38% | 33.30% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Broad (DBP) | -0.56% | -2.41% | -3.45% | -4.27% | 19.30% |
| Gold (GLD) | -0.61% | -2.43% | -1.48% | -1.15% | 15.36% |
| Silver (SLV) | -0.83% | -2.45% | -10.00% | -11.44% | 47.80% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -1.49% | -0.25% | -3.59% | -15.09% | 24.78% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -2.03% | -3.43% | -5.98% | -20.52% | 7.69% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital asset products traded with limited volatility on the day, with Ethereum exposure (ETHA) down 0.27% and Bitcoin (IBIT) off a modest 0.16%, while XRP (XRP) edged up 0.21%. The one-day moves stand in contrast to strong one-month performance across the space, with Solana exposure (SOLZ) up 30.24% and XRP up 29.93% over the trailing month. Year-to-date figures remain deeply negative for the group, however, with SOLZ down 22.40% and XRP down 29.34%, underscoring that recent monthly strength has not offset earlier-year declines. The broader crypto complex showed little reaction to the Fed’s hawkish hike, suggesting digital assets were relatively insulated from the rate-driven volatility seen in rate-sensitive equity sectors.
What to Watch Today
Thursday’s calendar features several data points that will be scrutinized for signals on the economy’s trajectory following Wednesday’s Fed hike, including Initial Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM ET, New Residential Construction (Housing Starts and Building Permits) at 8:30 AM ET, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also at 8:30 AM ET. The NAR Pending Home Sales Index is due at 10:00 AM ET, followed by the Weekly Economic Index at 11:30 AM ET. Collectively, these releases on labor conditions, housing activity, and regional manufacturing will help shape expectations heading into the Fed’s next meeting on October 27-28, with markets currently pricing roughly even odds of an additional hike in October.
U.S. equities retreated modestly on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 (IVV) down 0.43% after the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate hike and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish press conference unsettled markets late in the session. Developed ex-U.S. equities via the (EFA) declined 0.36%, roughly in line with the domestic move, while Emerging Markets (EEM) held up better, slipping just 0.06% and remaining up 20.73% year-to-date. Fixed income was largely flat, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond fund (AGG) off 0.04% as short-dated Treasury yields pushed to multi-year highs on the hike. Broad Commodities (DJP) fell 0.63% on the day despite a 41.56% year-to-date gain, dragged by a sharp pullback in crude. The clearest outlier was energy, where oil-linked funds posted the day’s steepest single-session losses even as oil prices held above $100 a barrel amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions.