Oil Surges as Geopolitical Risk Spurs Defensive Rotation

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities retreated on Friday, with the S&P 500 (IVV) falling 0.54% as corporate cost-cutting headlines and renewed geopolitical risk weighed on sentiment, trimming its trailing one-month return to -1.03% even as the YTD gain holds at 12.35%. Developed ex-U.S. markets tracked lower in sympathy, with the index (EFA) down 0.50%, while Emerging Markets (EEM) bucked the trend with a 0.47% gain. Fixed income offered little cushion, as the U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) slipped 0.17% with the 10-year yield back at 5.00%. The clear outlier was commodities, where Broad Commodities (DJP) jumped 0.77% on the session and now sits up 39.35% YTD, driven by a sharp spike in crude prices tied to fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears of renewed U.S.-Iran tension.

U.S. Size & Style

Large Value (IVE) outperformed on a relative basis, down just 0.56% versus steeper declines in growth-oriented segments, consistent with a defensive tilt amid the oil-driven risk-off tone. Large Growth (IVW) fell 0.52% and now carries an RSI of 35, approaching oversold territory, while only 45% of its constituents trade above their 50-day moving average. Mid Growth (IJK) posted the weakest 1-day result among size/style segments at -0.69%, extending a rough three-month stretch of -5.55%. Small caps held up comparatively well, with Small Value (IJS) down only 0.20% and still up 16.74% YTD, the strongest year-to-date performer in the group.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)-0.56%2.67%4.26%13.59%15.93%
Large Cap (IVV)-0.54%-1.03%3.22%12.35%14.41%
Large Growth (IVW)-0.52%-4.03%2.26%11.02%12.80%
Mid Value (IJJ)-0.53%1.83%-2.02%10.01%11.75%
Mid Cap (IJH)-0.59%-0.90%-3.79%10.52%11.71%
Mid Growth (IJK)-0.69%-3.52%-5.55%10.66%11.26%
Small Value (IJS)-0.20%0.94%-2.69%16.74%18.84%
Small Cap (IJR)-0.31%0.06%-4.25%15.96%16.59%
Small Growth (IJT)-0.38%-0.88%-5.94%14.78%13.89%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Energy (XLE) was the standout sector, rising 2.60% as WTI crude jumped 3.8% to $103.23 and Brent gained 3.1% to $116.72 on supply disruption fears, pushing the sector’s RSI to 69 and its YTD return to 58.14%. Technology (XLK) also edged higher, up 0.49%, though it remains oversold-adjacent with an RSI of 38 after a 6.20% one-month decline. Defensive-labeled sectors broadly underperformed despite their typical safe-haven role, with Consumer Staples (XLP) the day’s weakest at -1.92%, followed by Communication Services (XLC) at -1.78%, which also carries an oversold RSI of 33. Financials (XLF) and Industrials (XLI) each declined more than 1.2%, pressured by weakness in index constituents including Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)-0.52%-1.02%3.21%12.32%14.35%
Energy (XLE)2.60%11.16%17.47%58.14%60.28%
Technology (XLK)0.49%-6.20%2.79%27.72%27.40%
Real Estate (XLRE)0.12%1.74%-4.51%8.02%3.67%
Utilities (XLU)-0.72%7.07%-7.18%1.77%-3.09%
Materials (XLB)-0.74%2.05%2.50%14.59%16.87%
Health Care (XLV)-1.11%6.21%11.47%17.24%24.80%
Industrials (XLI)-1.27%-3.22%-9.28%6.96%7.56%
Financials (XLF)-1.32%2.49%0.48%3.30%8.06%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-1.66%2.21%4.22%-4.70%-4.33%
Communication Services (XLC)-1.78%-6.26%0.44%-9.56%-7.33%
Consumer Staples (XLP)-1.92%7.07%6.77%15.81%14.29%

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Global Thematic

Cybersecurity-themed funds led the thematic complex by a wide margin, with the WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR) up 5.04%, closely followed by the Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) at 4.98% and the iShares Cybersecurity & Tech ETF (IHAK) at 4.17%. Robotics exposure also participated, with the Roundhill Humanoid Robotics ETF (HUMN) gaining 3.71%. On the downside, cannabis and metals-mining themes lagged, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) falling 4.17% and the Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) down 3.54%, alongside declines in rare earths and silver miner exposures.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
WisdomTree Cybersecurity Fund (WCBR)5.04%
Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG)4.98%
iShares Cybersecurity & Tech ETF (IHAK)4.17%
Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK)4.16%
Roundhill Humanoid Robotics ETF (HUMN)3.71%
Laggards
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS)-4.17%
Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ)-3.54%
Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC)-2.93%
Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS)-2.78%
iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP)-2.76%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Within developed markets, South Korea (EWY) rose 1.48% despite a steep 18.52% one-month drawdown, while France (EWQ) and Germany (' target='_blank'>EWG) each fell roughly 1%, pressured by widening French sovereign spreads, with the OAT-Bund spread hitting its widest level since 2011. Emerging markets presented a split picture, as Brazil (EWZ) advanced 1.77% and now sits up 35.34% YTD, while Taiwan (EWT) added 0.88%, extending a 65.12% year-to-date advance. India (INDA) was the session’s weakest major market at -1.90%, deepening a year-to-date decline of 14.04%, while China (MCHI) was roughly flat but remains down 17.89% on the year. Indonesia (EIDO) continues to stand out as the weakest EM constituent overall, down 42.30% YTD.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-0.50%-2.07%-0.26%8.55%11.86%
Australia (EWA)0.52%2.68%2.21%12.76%10.48%
Canada (EWC)-0.41%1.74%3.18%13.06%21.63%
France (EWQ)-1.01%-5.18%-7.43%-5.86%-5.97%
Germany (EWG)-0.99%-2.22%0.86%-1.76%0.49%
Hong Kong (EWH)-0.28%-3.03%-3.16%3.90%7.42%
Japan (EWJ)-0.53%-3.04%3.29%17.17%19.42%
Netherlands (EWN)-0.59%-5.20%-4.96%12.90%13.56%
South Korea (EWY)1.48%-18.52%-13.00%55.59%71.76%
Switzerland (EWL)-0.99%4.44%1.91%7.01%12.23%
U.K. (EWU)-0.67%0.91%1.76%9.61%15.35%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)0.47%-8.42%-4.01%13.91%15.49%
Brazil (EWZ)1.77%13.97%17.75%35.34%46.18%
China (MCHI)-0.04%-7.84%-8.15%-17.89%-22.12%
India (INDA)-1.90%-3.31%-2.46%-14.04%-15.16%
Indonesia (EIDO)-0.28%-13.54%-14.52%-42.30%-40.47%
Malaysia (EWM)0.23%-3.47%-4.06%-0.48%7.84%
Mexico (EWW)0.41%2.51%0.35%10.14%17.91%
South Africa (EZA)-1.13%-4.97%4.48%-6.28%4.76%
Taiwan (EWT)0.88%-6.76%5.07%65.12%67.00%
Thailand (THD)0.16%-3.33%-2.13%21.55%22.81%

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Fixed Income

Rate-sensitive segments broadly declined as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed back to 5.00%, with Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) down 0.54% on the day and off 3.21% YTD. The Core Aggregate (AGG) slipped 0.17%, while shorter-duration exposure held up better, with Short-Term Treasuries (SPTS) flat and Ultrashort (BIL) posting a modest 0.03% gain. Credit-sensitive instruments were little changed, with High Yield (HYG) down just 0.06% and Convertibles (CWB) flat on the session despite a 7.00% one-month decline. Municipal bonds were a relative bright spot, with Intermediate Munis (MUB) gaining 0.18%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV)-0.07%0.84%0.25%0.44%1.06%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)-0.16%0.71%-0.50%-0.85%-0.86%
Core (AGG)-0.17%0.93%-0.38%-0.97%-1.14%
Long-Term (BLV)-0.54%0.87%-1.04%-3.21%-5.70%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL)0.03%0.33%0.95%2.94%3.69%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.00%0.79%0.62%1.14%1.81%
Inflation Protected (TIP)-0.08%1.36%-0.44%-0.03%-0.97%
Intermediate (SPTI)-0.11%1.18%-0.40%-1.37%-1.18%
Long-Term (SPTL)-0.44%1.44%-0.87%-3.23%-5.90%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB)0.00%-7.00%-7.36%7.91%5.52%
High Yield (HYG)-0.06%-0.91%-1.31%-0.11%1.06%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)-0.10%1.25%-0.58%-0.96%-0.55%
Corporate (SPIB)-0.12%0.59%-0.38%-0.44%0.09%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-0.14%-3.10%-3.11%-3.31%-3.73%
Bank Loans (BKLN)-0.15%-0.75%1.14%1.70%3.73%
International & EM
International USD (BNDX)0.02%0.86%-0.27%-0.17%-0.87%
International Local (IGOV)-0.05%0.22%-0.40%-3.53%-4.12%
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.16%-0.40%0.18%0.68%3.53%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.22%-0.60%-1.71%-0.96%0.53%
Municipals
Intermediate (MUB)0.18%1.64%-0.93%-1.07%-0.67%
Long-Term (MLN)0.06%1.36%-2.60%-1.84%-1.94%
Short-Term (SUB)0.05%1.16%0.72%1.10%1.94%
High Yield (HYD)-0.04%2.21%-0.83%-0.45%0.52%

Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →

Commodities

Energy commodities dominated the day’s action, with WTI Crude (USO) surging 4.32% and Brent Crude (BNO) climbing 3.02% as fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and fears of renewed U.S.-Iran conflict drove crude to its highest settlement since spring; both benchmarks are now up well over 130% year-to-date. Broad energy exposure (DBE) rose 2.68%, while Natural Gas (UNG) moved in the opposite direction, falling 3.13% and remaining down 21.86% on the year. Precious metals pulled back broadly, with Gold (GLD) down 0.65% and Silver (SLV) off 1.26%, extending a steep 16.23% one-month decline. Industrial metals were mixed, with Copper (CPER) gaining 1.53% even as the broader base metals complex (DBB) advanced 1.10%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)0.77%-0.74%7.40%39.35%43.20%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE)0.75%6.86%25.78%24.55%25.50%
Soybeans (SOYB)0.56%-4.29%2.68%22.55%20.35%
Wheat (WEAT)-0.04%-11.10%-10.92%14.32%11.09%
Broad (DBA)-0.18%-2.38%-1.31%9.21%7.24%
Corn (CORN)-0.56%-10.53%-3.44%-0.28%0.06%
Energy
WTI Crude (USO)4.32%13.91%21.54%145.13%131.31%
Brent Crude (BNO)3.02%17.61%32.82%150.67%138.78%
Broad (DBE)2.68%10.63%25.10%134.87%123.30%
Natural Gas (UNG)-3.13%-11.87%-9.71%-21.86%-25.91%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)1.53%-3.82%2.14%11.73%24.36%
Broad (DBB)1.10%-3.60%0.73%8.46%18.80%
Precious Metals
Gold (GLD)-0.65%-6.69%-1.32%-7.49%-3.22%
Broad (DBP)-0.81%-8.72%-2.41%-12.09%-2.06%
Palladium (PALL)-0.94%-17.47%-16.86%-34.86%-28.12%
Platinum (PPLT)-1.06%-11.58%-2.84%-24.64%-5.13%
Silver (SLV)-1.26%-16.23%-6.42%-24.37%10.28%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital asset ETFs were mixed but largely subdued on the day, with Bitcoin exposure (IBIT) down a marginal 0.22% and Ethereum exposure (ETHA) up 0.37%. Solana-linked product (SOLZ) slipped 0.20% on the session but remains the strongest three-month performer in the group at 35.83%. The Multi-Coin fund (NCIQ) declined 0.24%, and despite the recent three-month rebound across the space, all major crypto ETFs remain negative on a trailing one-year basis, with Ethereum exposure down 38.24% and Solana exposure down 47.81%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)-0.24%-5.59%25.18%-11.12%-30.79%
Bitcoin (IBIT)-0.22%-4.01%25.40%-7.43%-26.53%
Solana (SOLZ)-0.20%-10.10%35.83%-18.28%-47.81%
XRP (XRP)0.14%-12.93%17.91%-29.09%—
Ethereum (ETHA)0.37%-10.80%27.76%-19.63%-38.24%

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What to Watch Today

Monday, October 26 brings a light U.S. economic calendar, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September due in the morning and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for October at 2:30 PM ET. Treasury supply will be in focus with 3-month and 6-month bill auctions at 3:30 PM ET followed by a 2-year note auction. Notable earnings include Verizon, Bank of Hawaii, and Cemex before the open, with Amkor Technology and Alexandria Real Estate reporting after the close. Markets will also be positioning ahead of the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday and Q3 GDP and PCE inflation data later in the week.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.