Equities Rebound as Rate Fears Ease, Commodities Pull Back

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities staged a broad rebound on Thursday, with the S&P 500 (IVV) advancing 1.12% as investors digested the prior day’s rate decision and falling oil prices eased inflation concerns. Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) followed with a 0.97% gain, while Emerging Markets (EEM) outpaced both developed regions, rising 1.81% and extending its year-to-date lead to 22.91%. Fixed income also participated in the risk-on tone, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) up 0.54% as Treasury yields retreated from multi-year highs. Broad Commodities (DJP) was the notable outlier, slipping 0.56% on the day even as its year-to-date gain remains a standout at 40.76%, reflecting the pullback in crude oil prices that helped fuel the equity rally elsewhere.

U.S. Size & Style

Large Growth (IJK) wait, Large Growth (IVW) led all size and style segments with a 1.48% gain, consistent with technology’s outperformance, while Large Cap (IVV) rose 1.12%. Small caps lagged notably, with Small Cap (IJR) essentially flat at 0.03% and Small Growth (IJT) up just 0.12%, reflecting continued weakness in the segment’s 1-month returns of -6.56% and -8.10%, respectively. Small Growth’s RSI of 28 places it in oversold territory, while Small Cap’s RSI of 30 sits at the threshold, suggesting the segment has been heavily de-risked relative to large caps. Breadth remains narrow across smaller-cap categories, with only 25-27% of constituents trading above their 50-day moving averages versus roughly 30-31% for large-cap peers, underscoring the divergence in participation between mega-cap growth names and the broader market.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.73%-1.17%3.57%11.12%16.34%
Large Cap (IVV)1.12%-1.29%3.19%12.47%17.03%
Large Growth (IVW)1.48%-1.41%2.82%13.38%17.40%
Mid Value (IJJ)0.32%-5.19%-0.45%9.42%11.55%
Mid Cap (IJH)0.56%-6.43%-2.06%11.80%13.54%
Mid Growth (IJK)0.67%-7.59%-3.61%13.85%15.23%
Small Value (IJS)0.00%-4.99%1.20%17.44%22.03%
Small Cap (IJR)0.03%-6.56%-0.47%17.03%19.80%
Small Growth (IJT)0.12%-8.10%-2.25%16.36%17.34%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology (XLK) led all sectors with a 2.25% advance, consistent with chipmaker strength noted in broader market commentary, and its year-to-date return of 30.94% remains the strongest among the eleven sectors. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) followed with a 1.10% gain, though it remains down 6.34% year-to-date, highlighting a divergence between daily momentum and longer-term trend. Financials (XLF) was the lone sector to close lower, down 0.09%, while Communication Services (XLC) also lagged with a 0.58% decline. Breadth remains constructive in Technology and Health Care (XLV), with 53% and 59% of constituents above their 50-day moving averages, respectively, contrasting sharply with defensive and rate-sensitive sectors such as Utilities (XLU) and Real Estate (XLRE), where breadth sits at just 6% and 7%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)1.13%-1.30%3.18%12.43%16.97%
Technology (XLK)2.25%-1.19%1.34%30.94%39.29%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)1.10%-4.59%-3.35%-6.34%-7.06%
Utilities (XLU)0.90%-5.64%-5.63%-1.04%1.59%
Energy (XLE)0.70%3.04%18.78%46.18%47.73%
Materials (XLB)0.69%-2.93%-2.15%12.73%13.63%
Health Care (XLV)0.62%1.05%12.50%9.98%25.18%
Real Estate (XLRE)0.30%-4.22%-1.50%8.06%5.66%
Consumer Staples (XLP)0.19%-1.41%0.47%8.84%6.95%
Industrials (XLI)0.18%-9.29%-5.67%9.52%13.25%
Financials (XLF)-0.09%-2.95%3.75%2.90%4.92%
Communication Services (XLC)-0.58%1.38%3.16%-4.01%-4.26%

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Global Thematic

Biotechnology and genomics themes led the thematic space, with the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) surging 7.82% and the Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM) adding 5.25%. Silver-linked mining themes also stood out, with the Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) up 6.06% and the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) rising 5.17%, tracking the 3.37% gain in physical silver. On the laggard side, the Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) declined 1.33%, while consumer- and construction-oriented themes such as the Invesco Building & Construction ETF (PKB) slipped 0.38%. The dispersion between biotech/precious-metals themes and consumer-facing strategies illustrates a rotation toward growth and defensive-hard-asset exposures on the day.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)7.82%
Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF Silver Miners ETF (SLVR)6.06%
Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF (GNOM)5.25%
Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ)5.17%
iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP)5.08%
Laggards
Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ)-1.33%
ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB)-0.90%
Invesco Building & Construction ETF (PKB)-0.38%
Invesco Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ)-0.32%
Global X Millennial Consumer ETF (MILN)-0.10%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

South Korea (EWY) led developed and emerging markets alike with a 3.90% surge, extending its remarkable one-year gain to 133.67%, likely tied to the regional chipmaker rally referenced in the day’s Asia session commentary. Taiwan (EWT) also advanced sharply, up 2.07% and now higher by 74.15% year-to-date, reinforcing the semiconductor-driven theme across the region. Within developed markets, Australia (EWA) gained 2.25%, outpacing the broader Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) return of 0.97%. Among emerging markets, Mexico (EWW) rose 1.92% while China (MCHI) posted a more modest 0.69% gain, leaving it down 11.74% year-to-date and a notable laggard relative to the broader EM complex.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)0.97%-2.22%2.18%12.16%17.92%
Australia (EWA)2.25%-1.42%1.68%12.80%10.72%
Canada (EWC)0.92%-2.85%3.82%12.54%22.52%
France (EWQ)0.59%-5.79%-2.07%1.06%4.98%
Germany (EWG)0.61%-2.89%3.22%2.44%6.04%
Hong Kong (EWH)1.08%0.13%5.53%7.67%8.36%
Japan (EWJ)0.93%-0.26%3.66%21.91%25.86%
Netherlands (EWN)0.75%-6.67%-4.48%18.14%25.19%
South Korea (EWY)3.90%-1.46%-11.06%87.61%133.67%
Switzerland (EWL)0.48%-4.10%-1.87%2.41%11.06%
U.K. (EWU)1.03%-0.44%4.42%10.60%18.65%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)1.81%-0.61%-2.41%22.91%28.08%
Brazil (EWZ)0.69%11.10%10.64%19.93%27.57%
China (MCHI)0.69%-4.34%-0.62%-11.74%-18.44%
India (INDA)1.16%-3.17%-2.14%-11.17%-11.13%
Indonesia (EIDO)0.95%1.03%2.00%-30.71%-27.23%
Malaysia (EWM)0.11%-2.21%-0.43%2.54%9.83%
Mexico (EWW)1.92%-0.83%-3.91%8.72%15.50%
South Africa (EZA)1.69%0.73%3.28%1.95%21.59%
Taiwan (EWT)2.07%2.63%5.26%74.15%83.10%
Thailand (THD)2.08%-1.79%1.23%24.45%21.95%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income markets advanced broadly as Treasury yields pulled back from their highest levels since 2007, snapping an eight-day rising streak. Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) led the recovery with a 1.03% gain, while its shorter-duration counterpart, Long-Term (SPTL), rose 1.01%. Convertible bonds (CWB) gained 1.16%, reflecting sensitivity to the equity rally, while Preferred Stock (PFF) added 0.77%. Shorter-duration segments such as Ultrashort (BIL) and Short-Term (SUB) were essentially unchanged, consistent with their lower duration exposure to the day’s yield decline.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Long-Term (BLV)1.03%0.66%-3.44%-2.56%-3.61%
Core (AGG)0.54%-0.60%-1.30%-0.94%-0.32%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)0.49%-0.65%-1.23%-0.69%0.08%
Short-Term (BSV)0.18%-0.74%-0.13%0.06%1.14%
Government
Long-Term (SPTL)1.01%0.49%-3.66%-3.10%-4.23%
Intermediate (SPTI)0.36%-1.38%-1.22%-1.73%-1.04%
Inflation Protected (TIP)0.30%-0.99%-1.38%-0.53%-1.14%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.14%-0.51%0.25%0.63%1.77%
Ultrashort (BIL)0.02%0.28%0.90%2.53%3.67%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB)1.16%-4.49%-6.87%15.07%15.68%
Preferred Stock (PFF)0.77%-1.15%-1.71%0.71%-1.03%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)0.64%-0.97%-1.46%-0.80%0.39%
High Yield (HYG)0.38%-0.57%0.22%1.61%3.04%
Corporate (SPIB)0.34%-0.76%-0.69%-0.32%0.73%
Bank Loans (BKLN)0.24%1.04%2.64%2.65%4.92%
International & EM
Emerging USD (EMB)0.64%-0.66%-1.46%0.71%3.23%
Emerging Local (EMLC)0.64%-1.02%0.21%1.89%4.60%
International Local (IGOV)0.55%-1.60%-1.86%-2.64%-4.38%
International USD (BNDX)0.30%-0.88%-1.77%-0.66%-0.37%
Municipals
Long-Term (MLN)0.60%-3.36%-3.92%-1.99%-0.53%
High Yield (HYD)0.37%-2.18%-3.28%-1.29%0.48%
Intermediate (MUB)0.33%-2.00%-2.78%-1.60%-0.13%
Short-Term (SUB)0.02%-0.53%-0.30%0.51%1.00%

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Commodities

Broad Commodities (DJP) declined 0.56% as crude oil prices eased on signs that Middle East supply disruptions may be resolving, with Brent Crude (BNO) falling 1.30% and WTI Crude (USO) down 0.55%. Agricultural commodities were also weaker, with Sugar (CANE) sliding 2.72% and the Broad Agriculture fund (DBA) down 1.39%. In contrast, precious and industrial metals rallied, with Silver (SLV) up 3.37%, Copper (CPER) rising 2.77%, and Gold (GLD) advancing 1.69% as the dollar’s mixed performance provided support. The divergence between energy weakness and metals strength underscores a rotation within the commodity complex rather than a uniform risk-off or risk-on move.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)-0.56%6.91%17.15%40.76%51.13%
Agriculture
Soybeans (SOYB)0.00%8.41%14.44%27.95%25.71%
Corn (CORN)-0.70%7.42%15.63%11.84%10.91%
Wheat (WEAT)-1.17%4.96%13.10%31.40%23.48%
Broad (DBA)-1.39%1.00%5.89%11.36%8.31%
Sugar (CANE)-2.72%1.37%16.63%13.58%6.13%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG)-0.29%5.09%-10.72%-15.74%-21.15%
WTI Crude (USO)-0.55%19.20%35.96%124.57%107.16%
Broad (DBE)-1.29%15.53%36.31%113.86%101.06%
Brent Crude (BNO)-1.30%17.20%40.06%115.08%99.38%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)2.77%-1.17%2.64%13.44%39.55%
Broad (DBB)2.06%1.06%1.90%12.08%30.47%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV)3.37%-1.01%-2.71%-8.46%56.05%
Broad (DBP)2.09%-1.49%1.29%-2.26%23.25%
Gold (GLD)1.69%-1.76%2.51%0.52%18.22%
Platinum (PPLT)1.45%-0.06%2.49%-13.86%29.67%
Palladium (PALL)0.56%-3.93%-1.98%-20.07%10.39%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets were mixed, with Solana (SOLZ) leading gainers at 3.18% and Ethereum (ETHA) adding 1.76%. Bitcoin (IBIT) posted a more modest 0.60% gain, while XRP (XRP) slipped 0.21%, the only decliner in the group. Despite the day’s gains, most crypto exposures remain deeply negative on a year-to-date basis, with Ethereum down 17.66% and Solana down 19.93%, reflecting the sharp one-year drawdowns of 45.96% and 59.79%, respectively, still weighing on the space. The one-month performance across the complex has been notably stronger, with Solana up 32.88% and Ethereum up 28.26%, suggesting some near-term stabilization even as longer-term trends remain challenged.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
XRP (XRP)-0.21%29.54%9.54%-29.48%
Bitcoin (IBIT)0.60%18.89%19.09%-12.79%-34.06%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)0.78%20.85%21.00%-15.10%-39.19%
Ethereum (ETHA)1.76%28.26%41.32%-17.66%-45.96%
Solana (SOLZ)3.18%32.88%40.50%-19.93%-59.79%

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What to Watch Today

Investors will turn to the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, due Friday, September 18 at 10:00 a.m. ET, for further signals on the trajectory of U.S. growth following this week’s rate decision. Overnight developments from the Bank of Japan’s rate hike, delivered via a split vote and accompanied by a weaker yen, will also factor into Friday’s open. Additionally, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock’s scheduled remarks may add to the global monetary policy narrative heading into the session. Asian markets have already responded positively to Thursday’s Wall Street rally, with regional chipmakers extending gains, setting a constructive tone for U.S. futures ahead of Friday’s open.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.