Fed Hikes Rates as Bitcoin and Small Caps Diverge

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities were little changed on the day, with the S&P 500 (IVV) adding 0.11% as chipmaker strength offset broader softness, following the FOMC’s quarter-point hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range and updated projections showing firmer inflation expectations. Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) fell 1.01% as European bourses led decliners, while Emerging Markets (EEM) edged up 0.18% on strength in China and Taiwan. Fixed income slid across the curve as the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) dropped 0.38% amid a Treasury selloff that pushed 10-year yields to 5.00% intraday on inflation concerns tied to crude near $100. Broad Commodities (DJP) slipped 0.45% despite firm precious and industrial metals, while the standout outlier of the session was crypto, with Bitcoin ETFs surging as Bitcoin topped $81,000 intraday.

U.S. Size & Style

Large Growth (IVW) outperformed with a 0.55% gain, carrying an RSI of 55 and 31% of constituents above their 50-day moving average, while Large Value (IVE) declined 0.45%. Small caps lagged broadly, with Small Cap (IJR) down 0.43% and both Small Value (IJS) and Small Growth (IJT) posting oversold RSI readings of 30 and 28, respectively. Mid caps were similarly weak, with Mid Value (IJJ) falling 0.64% and holding an RSI of 31, reflecting the quadruple witching volatility that weighed on smaller-cap names disproportionately. Only 23-28% of small-cap constituents trade above their 50-day averages, underscoring the narrow participation in the day’s modest large-cap gains. The divergence between growth-oriented large caps and broader small/mid-cap weakness highlights a continued preference for mega-cap technology exposure.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)-0.45%-1.64%2.84%10.62%15.42%
Large Cap (IVV)0.11%-0.50%2.27%12.59%16.61%
Large Growth (IVW)0.55%0.42%1.67%13.99%17.26%
Mid Value (IJJ)-0.64%-4.70%-1.88%8.72%9.57%
Mid Cap (IJH)-0.31%-5.22%-3.40%11.45%11.77%
Mid Growth (IJK)-0.05%-5.77%-4.89%13.79%13.61%
Small Value (IJS)-0.67%-4.51%-1.06%16.66%18.80%
Small Cap (IJR)-0.43%-5.61%-2.66%16.53%16.64%
Small Growth (IJT)-0.24%-6.73%-4.31%16.08%14.41%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology (XLK) led all sectors with a 0.82% advance, consistent with the chipmaker rally noted in the broader tape, and carries an RSI of 58 with 58% of members above their 50-day moving average. Industrials (XLI) added 0.44%, potentially aided by defense-sector news around the approved F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia, though the sector’s RSI of 34 and just 8% of constituents above their 50-day average reflect a weaker underlying trend. At the other end, Materials (XLB) and Utilities (XLU) each fell 1.42%, with Utilities showing an oversold RSI of 31 and only 3% of members above their 50-day moving average. Communication Services (XLC) dropped 1.37%, likely pressured by the Netflix downgrade referenced in the day’s stock-specific news. Real Estate (XLRE) also declined nearly 1%, consistent with rising Treasury yields weighing on rate-sensitive equities.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)0.13%-0.50%2.25%12.57%16.57%
Technology (XLK)0.82%2.14%-0.84%32.01%38.04%
Industrials (XLI)0.44%-7.53%-5.94%10.00%12.55%
Financials (XLF)-0.04%-3.42%4.64%2.87%4.79%
Health Care (XLV)-0.25%-0.79%13.20%9.70%24.62%
Energy (XLE)-0.26%0.99%20.45%45.80%47.80%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-0.32%-4.58%-5.04%-6.65%-6.94%
Consumer Staples (XLP)-0.83%-3.25%0.09%7.94%7.00%
Real Estate (XLRE)-0.95%-4.71%-2.19%7.02%4.58%
Communication Services (XLC)-1.37%0.30%1.51%-5.32%-5.65%
Materials (XLB)-1.42%-3.46%-3.15%11.13%12.02%
Utilities (XLU)-1.42%-6.63%-7.59%-2.44%0.08%

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Global Thematic

Crypto-linked thematic funds dominated the leaderboard, with the First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT) surging 11.89% and the Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) advancing 8.86%, tracking Bitcoin’s move above $81,000. Additional digital-asset vehicles including the Schwab Crypto Thematic Natural Language Processing ETF (STCE), Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ), and VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) each gained more than 8%. On the laggard side, the Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI) fell 2.71% and uranium-focused funds including the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR) and Global X Uranium ETF (URA) declined more than 2%. The breadth of the crypto rally across multiple thematic wrappers reinforces the outsized move in digital assets seen elsewhere in the data.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT)11.89%
Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH)8.86%
Schwab Crypto Thematic Natural Language Processing ETF (STCE)8.29%
Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ)8.26%
VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP)8.17%
Laggards
Defiance Drone and Modern Warfare ETF (JEDI)-2.71%
ALERIAN MLP INDEX ETNS DUE JANUARY 28, 2044 (AMJB)-2.62%
VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF (NLR)-2.60%
Global X Uranium ETF (URA)-2.41%
ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO)-2.40%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed markets broadly declined, with France (EWQ) down 1.58% and the U.K. (EWU) and Germany (EWG) each falling more than 1.2%. Japan (EWJ) slipped 0.93% following the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, which coincided with yen weakness noted in the day’s currency commentary. Within emerging markets, Taiwan (EWT) gained 0.90% and China (MCHI) rose 0.76%, helping offset a 2.04% decline in Indonesia (EIDO), which remains down 32.12% year-to-date. South Korea (EWY) fell 0.59% on the day but retains an 86.49% year-to-date gain, among the strongest in the developed and emerging universe.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-1.01%-2.14%0.54%11.03%16.28%
Australia (EWA)-1.30%-2.90%0.67%11.33%10.29%
Canada (EWC)-0.31%-2.21%4.06%12.19%21.65%
France (EWQ)-1.58%-6.50%-4.58%-0.54%2.59%
Germany (EWG)-1.26%-3.50%1.52%1.15%3.71%
Hong Kong (EWH)-0.31%0.09%5.50%7.34%9.07%
Japan (EWJ)-0.93%1.71%0.77%20.78%24.20%
Netherlands (EWN)0.42%-4.29%-5.41%18.63%23.31%
South Korea (EWY)-0.59%6.62%-17.29%86.49%129.64%
Switzerland (EWL)-0.50%-4.56%-2.10%1.90%10.67%
U.K. (EWU)-1.42%-1.85%3.98%9.03%17.34%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)0.18%2.59%-5.31%23.13%28.62%
Brazil (EWZ)-0.58%11.34%11.24%19.23%27.32%
China (MCHI)0.76%-3.33%0.57%-11.07%-16.48%
India (INDA)0.02%-2.75%-3.15%-11.16%-10.64%
Indonesia (EIDO)-2.04%-0.72%0.32%-32.12%-27.67%
Malaysia (EWM)-0.69%-3.23%-0.80%1.84%10.57%
Mexico (EWW)-1.28%-1.50%-5.16%7.33%15.03%
South Africa (EZA)-0.29%2.07%2.62%1.66%20.01%
Taiwan (EWT)0.90%6.95%1.50%75.73%83.13%
Thailand (THD)-0.41%-1.62%-0.07%23.93%23.40%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income broadly declined as Treasury yields rose following the Fed’s quarter-point hike, with Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) falling 0.66% and Long-Term (SPTL) down 0.68%, the weakest performers in the category. The Core U.S. Aggregate (AGG) slipped 0.38%, while shorter-duration exposures such as Ultrashort (BIL) were essentially flat, underscoring the curve’s sensitivity to the rate move. Credit segments held up relatively better, with High Yield (HYG) down just 0.24% and Bank Loans (BKLN) off only 0.10%. Municipal High Yield (HYD) was nearly unchanged, declining a modest 0.04%, reflecting more limited exposure to the day’s rate volatility.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV)-0.16%-0.92%-0.42%-0.09%1.05%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)-0.36%-1.09%-1.85%-1.05%-0.04%
Core (AGG)-0.38%-1.08%-1.97%-1.32%-0.43%
Long-Term (BLV)-0.66%-0.26%-4.50%-3.20%-3.62%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL)0.02%0.30%0.88%2.56%3.68%
Short-Term (SPTS)-0.14%-0.61%-0.03%0.49%1.69%
Intermediate (SPTI)-0.33%-1.73%-1.79%-2.05%-1.19%
Inflation Protected (TIP)-0.42%-1.64%-2.11%-0.95%-1.27%
Long-Term (SPTL)-0.68%-0.47%-4.79%-3.76%-4.04%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB)0.13%-2.49%-7.63%15.22%14.71%
Bank Loans (BKLN)-0.10%1.14%2.59%2.55%4.72%
Corporate (SPIB)-0.24%-1.06%-1.14%-0.57%0.51%
High Yield (HYG)-0.24%-0.71%-0.37%1.36%2.56%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-0.43%-1.00%-2.57%0.28%-1.46%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)-0.57%-1.56%-2.32%-1.36%0.25%
International & EM
International Local (IGOV)-0.07%-1.40%-1.63%-2.71%-3.69%
International USD (BNDX)-0.13%-0.88%-1.97%-0.79%-0.36%
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.20%-1.06%0.05%1.69%4.68%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.30%-0.90%-2.21%0.41%3.35%
Municipals
High Yield (HYD)-0.04%-1.92%-3.75%-1.33%0.44%
Short-Term (SUB)-0.15%-0.73%-0.57%0.36%0.84%
Intermediate (MUB)-0.27%-2.09%-3.36%-1.87%-0.33%
Long-Term (MLN)-0.27%-3.29%-4.45%-2.26%-0.85%

Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →

Commodities

Commodities were mixed, with Broad Commodities (DJP) down 0.45% as crude oil declined amid the day’s rate-driven volatility, with WTI Crude (USO) falling 0.96% and Brent Crude (BNO) off 0.56%, consistent with the reported 1.81% drop in October crude futures. Precious and industrial metals moved in the opposite direction, with Palladium (PALL) up 1.94%, Silver (SLV) gaining 1.63%, and Platinum (PPLT) rising 1.56%, aligning with the reported strength in silver and gold futures. Copper (CPER) added 1.44%, extending its 41.95% one-year gain. Agricultural commodities were broadly weaker, with Wheat (WEAT) down 1.45% and Soybeans (SOYB) off 1.04%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)-0.45%6.70%17.09%40.12%51.22%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE)-0.27%-1.16%18.18%13.28%6.76%
Corn (CORN)-0.66%6.95%16.22%11.11%11.05%
Broad (DBA)-0.95%0.43%5.71%10.31%7.68%
Soybeans (SOYB)-1.04%7.29%14.05%26.62%24.85%
Wheat (WEAT)-1.45%4.65%12.73%29.49%22.56%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG)0.77%3.07%-11.33%-15.09%-17.84%
Brent Crude (BNO)-0.56%16.23%38.04%113.88%99.24%
Broad (DBE)-0.62%14.15%35.11%112.54%101.18%
WTI Crude (USO)-0.96%17.73%33.91%122.41%105.94%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER)1.44%2.68%3.53%15.07%41.95%
Broad (DBB)0.89%3.47%2.53%13.08%31.83%
Precious Metals
Palladium (PALL)1.94%1.33%1.98%-18.52%12.29%
Silver (SLV)1.63%4.33%0.71%-6.97%57.75%
Platinum (PPLT)1.56%4.82%6.12%-12.51%29.29%
Broad (DBP)0.86%1.37%3.06%-1.43%24.56%
Gold (GLD)0.71%0.66%3.63%1.23%19.53%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets posted the largest single-day gains across the entire dataset, with Solana (SOLZ) surging 13.43% and XRP (XRP) rising 9.19%, tracking Bitcoin’s move past $81,000 intraday, up 5.94% per the verified session data. Ethereum (ETHA) gained 7.85% and Bitcoin (IBIT) added 6.28%, while the Multi-Coin ETF (NCIQ) rose 7.31%. Despite the day’s sharp advance, most crypto vehicles remain in negative territory year-to-date, with Ethereum down 11.19% and Solana off 9.18% for 2026, reflecting the magnitude of losses earlier in the year. The one-day rally has not yet reversed the deeper one-year drawdowns, with Solana still down 56.11% and Ethereum off 42.64% over the trailing twelve months.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Bitcoin (IBIT)6.28%25.74%29.20%-7.31%-31.06%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)7.31%29.11%32.42%-8.89%-35.83%
Ethereum (ETHA)7.85%37.95%54.66%-11.19%-42.64%
XRP (XRP)9.19%41.20%23.63%-23.00%
Solana (SOLZ)13.43%47.89%64.83%-9.18%-56.11%

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What to Watch Today

Monday, September 21 brings a relatively light domestic calendar, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August due at 8:30 AM ET. Fed speakers include Goolsbee, alongside ECB’s Lagarde and Cipollone and Bank of Canada’s Macklem, all of which could offer additional color following this week’s FOMC decision. China’s Loan Prime Rate decision for September is also due, while Japanese markets will be closed for a holiday. Investors should note that no major CPI, PPI, jobs report, or Treasury auction is scheduled for Monday, with the next Treasury note auction not until Tuesday.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.