Macro Overview
Equities kicked off the first full week of 2026 with a powerful surge, driven by a major geopolitical catalyst in South America. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) rose 0.67% as the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched fresh record highs. The dominant narrative centered on the U.S. apprehension of Venezuelan President Maduro, sparking a rally in oil-related equities on expectations of a revival in Venezuelan energy infrastructure. While tech saw some mixed performance early on, the “broadening out” trade remained the focal point, with cyclical sectors leading the charge as investors weighed a resilient economy against shifting geopolitical risks.
U.S. Size & Style
Value and smaller-cap segments outperformed their growth counterparts during Monday’s session. The iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF (IJS) led the group with a 1.40% gain, followed closely by the iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Value ETF (IJJ) at 1.38%. Conversely, the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) lagged, eking out a modest 0.36% gain as interest rate concerns and a rotation out of mega-cap tech weighed on growth-oriented styles.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Value (IJS) | +1.40% | 1.40% | 2.28% | 4.00% | 2.26% | 8.52% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | +1.38% | 1.38% | 2.60% | 3.54% | 2.52% | 9.58% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +1.30% | 1.30% | 2.37% | 3.57% | 2.70% | 9.27% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +1.27% | 1.27% | 2.18% | 3.53% | 2.85% | 8.74% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | +1.25% | 1.25% | 1.51% | 2.82% | 2.25% | 7.34% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | +1.14% | 1.14% | 0.86% | 1.61% | 2.21% | 6.03% |
| Large Value (IVE) | +0.94% | 0.94% | 1.81% | 3.83% | 1.28% | 14.12% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +0.67% | 0.67% | 0.60% | 3.10% | 0.85% | 17.67% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | +0.36% | 0.36% | -0.46% | 2.36% | 0.43% | 20.41% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
The Energy sector was the standout leader on Monday, as the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) jumped 2.72%. Gains were fueled by surging oil equipment and services stocks, with the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF (IEZ) climbing 4.94%. Financials also showed significant strength, up 2.18%, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples were the primary laggards, falling -1.11% and -0.44% respectively.
| Sector (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +2.72% | 2.72% | 2.97% | 6.37% | 4.88% | 10.80% |
| Financial (XLF) | +2.18% | 2.18% | 4.92% | 4.85% | 2.48% | 17.11% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +1.65% | 1.65% | 0.67% | 1.35% | 0.75% | 7.42% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +1.18% | 1.18% | 3.76% | 3.87% | 3.05% | 22.08% |
| Materials (XLB) | +1.00% | 1.00% | 6.19% | 4.20% | 2.71% | 14.19% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | +0.73% | 0.73% | 0.85% | 1.49% | 0.03% | 21.75% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.22% | 0.22% | -1.20% | 1.74% | 0.45% | 23.44% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.12% | 0.12% | -0.30% | -2.88% | 0.20% | 2.37% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.30% | -0.30% | 1.59% | 7.51% | 0.16% | 13.53% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.44% | -0.44% | -0.62% | -0.07% | -0.42% | 1.45% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -1.11% | -1.11% | -0.65% | -3.23% | 0.02% | 13.94% |
Global Thematic
Geopolitical optimism spilled over into thematic segments, particularly those tied to digital assets and energy production. The Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) rocketed 9.30% as crypto markets rallied. Uranium and nuclear energy also saw a significant bid, with the Global X Uranium ETF (URA) gaining 5.58%. Conversely, the cannabis sector faced a sharp correction, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) tumbling -5.43%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Crypto Miners (WGMI) | +9.30% |
| Blockchain (BKCH) | +8.62% |
| Crypto Industry (CRPT) | +8.51% |
| Digital Transformation (DAPP) | +8.15% |
| Crypto Thematic (STCE) | +7.86% |
| Energy Infrastructure (ENFR) | -0.79% |
| Solar (TAN) | -0.93% |
| Clincal-Stage Biotech (SBIO) | -2.39% |
| Cannabis & Vice (CNBS) | -3.77% |
| Cannabis (MSOS) | -5.43% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
International developed markets saw broad gains, with the iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) rising 1.14%. The Netherlands and South Korea were the top geographic performers, with the iShares MSCI Netherlands ETF (EWN) gaining 2.56% and the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) adding 2.55%. Japan also performed well, gaining 2.21% as global risk appetite improved.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands (EWN) | +2.56% | 2.56% | 6.65% | 4.74% | 5.45% | 41.21% |
| South Korea (EWY) | +2.55% | 2.55% | 13.70% | 27.87% | 7.83% | 102.91% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +2.21% | 2.21% | 3.08% | 5.50% | 2.96% | 29.27% |
| Germany (EWG) | +1.15% | 1.15% | 3.96% | 1.46% | 1.29% | 38.18% |
| U.K. (EWU) | +0.79% | 0.79% | 5.69% | 7.13% | 1.89% | 37.22% |
| Canada (EWC) | +0.74% | 0.74% | 3.36% | 7.49% | 1.22% | 36.60% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | +0.55% | 0.55% | 2.96% | 5.30% | 3.48% | 40.28% |
| Australia (EWA) | +0.53% | 0.53% | 2.76% | -1.32% | 1.60% | 13.55% |
| France (EWQ) | +0.24% | 0.24% | 2.31% | 1.65% | 0.96% | 32.06% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | +0.15% | 0.15% | 4.14% | 0.78% | 33.12% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets followed the global trend higher, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) rising 1.10%. Colombia was the standout performer as its regional proximity to Venezuela spurred speculative demand, with the Global X MSCI Colombia ETF (COLO) gaining 5.04%. In contrast, India saw some profit-taking, with the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) slipping -0.49%.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand (THD) | +2.27% | 2.27% | 3.23% | 3.25% | 2.68% | 6.49% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | +1.83% | 1.83% | 4.42% | 11.99% | 3.21% | 54.06% |
| Mexico (EWW) | +1.32% | 1.32% | 4.76% | 7.70% | 1.80% | 56.39% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | +1.22% | 1.22% | 2.15% | 10.30% | 1.82% | 3.96% |
| South Africa (EZA) | +1.21% | 1.21% | 9.16% | 13.90% | 2.09% | 75.26% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | +0.82% | 0.82% | 4.53% | 5.68% | 2.79% | 30.78% |
| China (MCHI) | +0.69% | 0.69% | 1.25% | -4.67% | 4.33% | 38.09% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | +0.69% | 0.69% | 5.29% | 7.06% | 0.91% | 17.68% |
| India (INDA) | -0.49% | -0.49% | 0.59% | 3.51% | 0.44% | 1.72% |
Fixed Income
Treasury yields moderated on Monday, with the 10-year yield falling toward 4.16%. This provided support for rate-sensitive bond categories. Convertibles were the clear winners, as the SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF (CWB) surged 1.08%. Long-term bonds also caught a bid, with the Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV) gaining 0.42%.
| Category (Ticker) | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxable Core (AGG) | +0.19% | 0.19% | 0.34% | 0.85% | 0.16% | 7.46% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | +0.17% | 0.17% | 0.33% | 0.92% | 0.15% | 7.69% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | +0.07% | 0.07% | 0.70% | 1.87% | 0.19% | 9.73% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.97% | 0.04% | 4.16% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | +0.09% | 0.09% | 0.45% | 1.11% | 0.08% | 6.17% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | +0.42% | 0.42% | -0.22% | -0.57% | 0.23% | 6.90% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | +0.07% | 0.07% | 0.43% | 1.04% | 0.03% | 5.26% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | +0.21% | 0.21% | 0.32% | 1.02% | 0.14% | 7.65% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | +0.42% | 0.42% | -0.14% | -0.44% | 0.23% | 5.80% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | +0.27% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.23% | 7.07% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | +0.15% | 0.15% | 0.49% | 1.16% | 0.18% | 8.20% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.26% | 0.26% | 0.64% | 1.51% | 0.31% | 8.51% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | +0.10% | 0.10% | 0.83% | 2.09% | 0.14% | 6.88% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.19% | 0.19% | 1.70% | -0.03% | 1.20% | 4.10% |
| Convertible (CWB) | +1.08% | 1.08% | 1.16% | -0.17% | 2.61% | 17.94% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | +0.22% | 0.22% | 0.57% | 1.36% | 0.14% | 8.77% |
| International USD (BNDX) | +0.14% | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.31% | 0.12% | 3.18% |
| International (IGOV) | +0.31% | 0.31% | 0.67% | -0.63% | 0.17% | 11.17% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | +0.16% | 0.16% | 0.52% | 2.54% | 0.18% | 13.47% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | +0.12% | 0.12% | 1.68% | 3.39% | 0.35% | 19.01% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | +0.08% | 0.08% | 0.57% | 0.77% | 0.11% | 3.71% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.09% | 0.09% | 0.67% | 1.71% | 0.21% | 3.97% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.84% | 1.65% | 0.34% | 2.54% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.89% | 1.91% | 0.08% | 2.95% |
Commodities
Commodities saw explosive gains on Monday, led by industrial and precious metals. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) surged 5.06%, while copper prices climbed as the United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) gained 5.12%. Energy was mixed; while crude oil benchmarks rose on the Venezuela news, natural gas continued to struggle, with the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) dropping -3.57%.
| Commodity (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper (CPER) | +5.12% | 5.12% | 10.25% | 17.40% | 5.18% | 43.91% |
| Silver (SLV) | +5.06% | 5.06% | 30.46% | 58.73% | 7.23% | 156.04% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | +5.14% | 5.14% | 36.62% | 39.70% | 9.69% | 138.62% |
| Gold (GLD) | +2.63% | 2.63% | 5.78% | 14.29% | 3.14% | 67.88% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | +1.83% | 1.83% | -2.36% | -2.08% | 1.53% | -9.88% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -3.57% | -3.57% | -28.96% | -10.88% | -5.14% | -25.40% |
Cryptocurrency
The digital asset market surged as geopolitical uncertainty increased the appeal of decentralized assets. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) gained 4.95%, while the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) rose 3.99%. Notably, XRP-linked funds saw massive outperformance, with XRP gaining over 16% in a single day.
| Asset (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETHA) | +3.99% | 3.99% | 7.31% | -28.43% | 9.32% | -10.28% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | +4.95% | 4.95% | 5.46% | -23.42% | 7.67% | -4.47% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | +5.06% | 5.06% | 3.56% | -42.42% | 10.83% | — |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | +5.64% | 5.64% | 5.95% | -25.38% | 9.21% | — |
What to Watch Today
Today, market participants are laser-focused on the release of the ISM Services PMI and the final S&P Global Services PMI data. While Manufacturing data was released early in the week, the Services sector—which represents the vast majority of U.S. economic activity—is historically scheduled for release on the third business day of the month (today, Jan 6). These prints provide critical insight into whether economic resilience is sustainable or if high interest rates are beginning to crimp demand. Investors will also monitor comments from Fed officials for any shift in tone regarding potential rate adjustments later this spring.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
