Macro Overview
Global markets exhibited a defensive posture on Tuesday as investors processed a “macro pause” ahead of significant U.S. labor and inflation data releases later in the week. U.S. equities saw slight pressure, with the S&P 500 (IVV) dipping 0.28%, while fixed income segments like Long-Term Government bonds (SPTL) outperformed as yields softened. A notable outlier was the Japanese market (EWJ), which surged 1.98% on the day, contrasting with broader weakness in Commodities (DJP) and Digital Assets.
U.S. Size & Style
Performance within U.S. equities favored the smaller end of the capitalization spectrum, with Small Value (IJS) gaining 0.22% while Large Growth (IVW) lagged significantly with a 0.54% decline. Technical breadth remains relatively healthy in the small-cap space, with the S&P 600 Small Cap (IJR) showing 70.43% of its constituents trading above their 50-day SMA despite an overbought RSI of 67.03. Large Growth remains the primary laggard, currently trading 1.26% below its 50-day moving average as investors rotate toward defensive value pockets.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Value (IJS) | 0.22% | 4.92% | 13.55% | 11.12% | 18.24% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | 0.13% | 3.90% | 11.96% | 8.86% | 14.19% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | 0.06% | 4.47% | 11.40% | 9.89% | 14.33% |
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.02% | 1.90% | 6.31% | 4.47% | 15.39% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.03% | 3.94% | 9.28% | 8.58% | 10.40% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -0.04% | 3.83% | 10.36% | 8.73% | 13.50% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.28% | -0.28% | 1.87% | 1.49% | 15.85% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.29% | 3.69% | 8.90% | 8.47% | 12.55% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -0.54% | -2.22% | -1.85% | -1.11% | 15.90% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Utilities (XLU) led the sector leaderboard with a 1.66% advance as interest rate sensitivities benefited from lower yields, followed closely by Materials (XLB) at 1.40%. Despite the daily gain, Materials is showing extreme technical strength with 100% of constituents above their 50-day SMA and a heavily overbought RSI of 72.97. Conversely, the Financials sector (XLF) fell 0.72%, while Energy (XLE) remained overbought with an RSI of 75.46 despite a minor 0.11% daily slip.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utilities (XLU) | 1.66% | 3.98% | -0.67% | 3.54% | 15.09% |
| Materials (XLB) | 1.40% | 9.64% | 22.77% | 16.67% | 21.60% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 1.40% | 5.78% | 5.01% | 6.17% | 5.40% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | 0.66% | -4.89% | -0.77% | -0.90% | 5.44% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | 0.60% | -0.28% | 4.13% | -0.12% | 15.31% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 0.12% | 7.40% | 13.16% | 12.11% | 27.22% |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.11% | 14.81% | 19.61% | 19.84% | 22.36% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -0.32% | 9.97% | 14.94% | 12.19% | 12.14% |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.56% | -2.46% | -3.38% | -0.99% | 21.43% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.63% | -1.26% | 5.91% | 0.34% | 8.03% |
| Financials (XLF) | -0.72% | -3.91% | 1.44% | -2.23% | 5.60% |
Global Thematic
Home Construction (ITB) surged as the top daily thematic leader with a 3.74% gain, while Cybersecurity (WCBR) and Cloud Computing (WCLD) also found footing with gains above 1.70%. The thematic laggards were dominated by digital assets and uranium, with Crypto Industry (CRPT) and Cannabis (MSOS) both sliding more than 3.50%. This divergent performance highlights a shift away from high-volatility speculative themes toward cyclical housing and infrastructure components.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| 1-Day Leaders | |
| Home Construction (ITB) | 3.74% |
| Homebuilders (XHB) | 2.82% |
| Video Games & Esports (HERO) | 2.17% |
| Cybersecurity (WCBR) | 1.75% |
| Cloud Computing (WCLD) | 1.71% |
| 1-Day Laggards | |
| Crypto Industry (CRPT) | -3.63% |
| Pure US Cannabis (MSOS) | -3.56% |
| Blockchain (BKCH) | -3.02% |
| Crypto Thematic (STCE) | -2.89% |
| Bitcoin Mining (WGMI) | -2.76% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International markets were buoyed by a significant rally in Japan (EWJ), which hit a new 52-week high with an RSI of 77.6. In emerging markets, the Philippines (EPHE) and Taiwan (EWT) were performance outliers, while South Korea (EWY) retreated 1.27% despite its massive 130% 1-year return. Technical breadth in Taiwan remains robust, with 63.95% of its constituents above their 50-day SMA, supporting its position near 52-week highs.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets | |||||
| Japan (EWJ) | 1.98% | 10.03% | 15.47% | 15.31% | 41.68% |
| Canada (EWC) | 0.80% | 3.83% | 12.46% | 5.17% | 37.10% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | 0.24% | 5.50% | 11.38% | 8.55% | 34.71% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | 0.13% | 4.42% | 11.83% | 10.59% | 42.10% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.03% | 4.70% | 12.54% | 5.79% | 29.53% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.23% | 1.87% | 7.96% | 4.05% | 28.80% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -0.29% | 6.05% | 8.23% | 11.39% | 52.75% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.34% | 2.07% | 6.51% | 4.09% | 24.08% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.60% | 4.35% | 9.68% | 6.28% | 34.43% |
| Australia (EWA) | -0.66% | 9.06% | 8.66% | 9.35% | 17.88% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -1.27% | 14.29% | 33.04% | 28.01% | 130.83% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Taiwan (EWT) | 0.96% | 8.37% | 13.66% | 12.45% | 42.29% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 0.85% | -6.63% | -3.39% | -5.08% | 5.17% |
| India (INDA) | 0.56% | 1.06% | -0.76% | -0.57% | 6.25% |
| Emerging (EEM) | 0.15% | 6.06% | 10.74% | 10.77% | 41.95% |
| China (MCHI) | 0.03% | -0.37% | -3.01% | 3.20% | 24.22% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.24% | 13.26% | 20.81% | 16.08% | 64.56% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.26% | 15.91% | 21.32% | 20.62% | 58.01% |
| Thailand (THD) | -0.32% | 14.37% | 14.17% | 14.68% | 26.61% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -0.41% | 6.68% | 19.42% | 9.61% | 74.80% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.47% | 7.61% | 13.95% | 8.52% | 27.86% |
Fixed Income
In duration-sensitive terms, Long-Term Government bonds (SPTL) saw strong demand, advancing 1.06% as recessionary jitters and a macro pause pushed investors toward safe-haven sovereign debt. Within the credit spectrum, Investment Grade Core (AGG) rose 0.29%, while higher-risk segments like High Yield (HYG) and Convertibles (CWB) retreated, indicating a flight to quality. Municipal bonds showed modest gains across the curve, while Emerging USD debt (EMB) outpaced local currency equivalents.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Long-Term (BLV) | 0.72% | 0.82% | 0.68% | 1.50% | 6.09% |
| Core (AGG) | 0.29% | 0.62% | 1.28% | 0.90% | 7.15% |
| Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.26% | 0.61% | 1.27% | 0.89% | 7.36% |
| Short-Term (BSV) | 0.11% | 0.53% | 1.20% | 0.50% | 6.09% |
| Government | |||||
| Long-Term (SPTL) | 1.06% | 1.03% | 0.36% | 1.68% | 4.91% |
| Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.24% | 0.60% | 1.10% | 0.60% | 7.28% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.21% | 0.74% | 0.67% | 0.98% | 5.89% |
| Short-Term (SPTS) | 0.07% | 0.45% | 1.13% | 0.42% | 5.19% |
| Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.01% | 0.28% | 0.90% | 0.38% | 4.08% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | 0.30% | 0.39% | 1.65% | 1.00% | 8.45% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.09% | 0.54% | 1.48% | 0.66% | 7.80% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | 0.03% | 0.40% | 2.46% | 2.38% | 6.10% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.05% | -1.35% | 0.18% | -1.06% | 5.32% |
| High Yield (HYG) | -0.10% | 0.30% | 1.74% | 0.76% | 7.74% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.45% | 2.58% | 2.59% | 6.14% | 19.30% |
| International & EM | |||||
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.26% | 1.07% | 1.99% | 1.15% | 12.57% |
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.23% | 0.52% | 0.48% | 0.98% | 2.98% |
| International Local (IGOV) | 0.21% | 2.98% | 2.96% | 2.71% | 11.99% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | -0.04% | 2.79% | 5.16% | 2.95% | 19.21% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Intermediate (MUB) | 0.16% | 0.54% | 1.45% | 1.05% | 4.44% |
| Long-Term (MLN) | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.62% | 0.72% | 2.56% |
| Short-Term (SUB) | 0.04% | 0.50% | 1.46% | 0.75% | 3.83% |
| High Yield (HYD) | 0.02% | -0.11% | 1.44% | 0.25% | 2.50% |
Commodities
Commodities were mixed with a slight negative bias, as the Broad Composite (DJP) eased 0.05%. Energy components were relatively flat, though Brent Crude (BNO) managed a 0.22% daily gain. Precious metals were under intense pressure, with Silver (SLV) dropping 3.46% and Platinum (PPLT) sliding 2.30% as technical profit-taking ensued following recent 52-week highs. Soybeans (SOYB) was the standout in Agriculture, gaining 1.09% on the day.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Composite (DJP) | -0.05% | 6.70% | 10.69% | 9.60% | 18.48% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 1.09% | 4.88% | -0.64% | 6.18% | 4.22% |
| Corn (CORN) | 0.23% | -2.40% | -2.35% | -1.52% | -13.44% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | 0.10% | 1.62% | -2.96% | 3.51% | -18.94% |
| Broad-based (DBA) | -0.08% | -0.19% | 0.16% | 0.82% | -4.44% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -1.40% | -5.31% | -0.37% | -6.10% | -20.69% |
| Energy | |||||
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 0.22% | 11.15% | 11.15% | 15.08% | 4.56% |
| Broad-based (DBE) | 0.03% | 10.68% | 4.47% | 11.54% | 4.59% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 0.01% | 10.24% | 8.86% | 12.83% | 0.81% |
| Natural Gas (UGA) | -0.93% | 9.38% | 2.73% | 13.36% | 7.30% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Broad-based (DBB) | -1.12% | -0.13% | 12.62% | 4.05% | 26.97% |
| Copper (CPER) | -1.20% | 0.50% | 14.93% | 3.92% | 23.15% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | -0.99% | 11.56% | 22.21% | 16.68% | 72.30% |
| Broad-based (DBP) | -1.51% | 8.10% | 27.63% | 14.92% | 80.54% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -1.87% | -6.70% | 19.41% | 6.68% | 72.19% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -2.30% | -8.06% | 31.86% | 1.98% | 110.02% |
| Silver (SLV) | -3.46% | 1.42% | 60.32% | 13.96% | 151.40% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets faced broad selling pressure on Tuesday as Bitcoin (IBIT) fell 2.84%, extending its 3-month slide to over 35%. Solana (SOLZ) was the worst performer among the majors, tumbling 6.15% as high-beta assets were shed in favor of defensive postures. Ethereum (ETHA) also declined significantly by 5.18%, reflecting a tentative risk environment ahead of the week’s key macroeconomic catalysts.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | -6.15% | -39.39% | -51.50% | -33.92% | — |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -5.18% | -34.45% | -43.66% | -32.23% | -25.31% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -3.07% | -26.52% | -37.80% | -23.45% | — |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -2.84% | -23.83% | -35.26% | -21.51% | -29.63% |
What to Watch Today
The macroeconomic calendar shifts into high gear today with the release of December Retail Sales data, which will serve as a crucial test of U.S. consumer resilience amid shifting policy narratives. Alongside this, the Employment Cost Index for Q4 2025 will provide the Federal Reserve with updated insights into wage-driven inflationary pressures. Investors are also bracing for the delayed January Nonfarm Payrolls report scheduled for Wednesday, which is expected to be a primary volatility driver for global risk assets and bond yields. The synthesis of these consumer and labor data points will likely dictate whether the current equity market “pause” matures into a deeper rotation or sets the stage for a push toward new records.
