Macro Overview
U.S. equities faced a slight headwind on Monday, December 29, as the standard year-end “Santa Claus rally” paused amid thin trading volumes. The S&P 500 (IVV) slipped -0.34%, ending a five-session winning streak as investors locked in profits following a robust 2025 performance. Despite the daily dip, market sentiment remains buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s accommodative stance and easing trade tensions, positioning the benchmark for a strong double-digit annual finish.
U.S. Size & Style
Selling pressure was relatively broad across market caps on Monday, with Mid and Small Cap segments underperforming their larger peers. The Mid Cap (IJH) fell -0.59% while the Small Cap (IJR) declined -0.49%. From a style perspective, Value continued to offer some defensive properties; the Large Value (IVE) saw a modest -0.19% decline compared to the -0.50% drop in Large Growth (IVW), as rising yields earlier in the session weighed on high-multiple tech names.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.19% | -0.19% | 1.12% | 4.37% | 13.93% | 12.82% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | -0.34% | -0.34% | 0.94% | 3.99% | 18.88% | 17.11% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | -0.50% | -0.50% | 0.72% | 3.61% | 23.05% | 20.61% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.41% | -0.41% | 1.53% | 3.55% | 8.57% | 8.49% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | -0.59% | -0.59% | 1.39% | 3.18% | 8.94% | 8.42% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | -0.71% | -0.71% | 1.29% | 2.86% | 8.98% | 8.00% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.39% | -0.39% | 2.17% | 4.91% | 8.00% | 7.73% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.49% | -0.49% | 1.85% | 3.81% | 7.96% | 7.42% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | -0.58% | -0.58% | 1.34% | 2.61% | 7.82% | 6.88% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Sector performance was bifurcated, led by Energy (XLE) which rallied +0.95% on the back of rising crude oil prices. Standout sub-sectors included Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP), which gained +1.20%. Conversely, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) lagged, falling -0.98%, while Materials (XLB) dropped -0.80%, pressured by a sharp pullback in Metals & Mining industries despite copper’s long-term upward trajectory.
| Sector (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +0.95% | 0.95% | -0.51% | -0.34% | 7.66% | 9.06% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.27% | 0.27% | -1.44% | -2.12% | 3.31% | 3.64% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.19% | 0.19% | -4.71% | -0.80% | 16.47% | 15.87% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +0.06% | 0.06% | -0.58% | 1.02% | 2.30% | 1.41% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.07% | -0.07% | 2.50% | -0.24% | 23.25% | 21.55% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.75% | 15.14% | 15.24% | 14.10% |
| Industrials (XLI) | -0.22% | -0.22% | 2.41% | 2.84% | 20.67% | 19.32% |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.45% | -0.45% | 2.08% | 4.23% | 26.24% | 23.60% |
| Financial (XLF) | -0.54% | -0.54% | 4.09% | 2.55% | 16.04% | 15.04% |
| Materials (XLB) | -0.80% | -0.80% | 2.85% | 3.10% | 10.87% | 9.82% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.98% | -0.98% | 2.42% | 0.59% | 8.65% | 6.10% |
Global Thematic
Thematic performance saw significant divergence as safe-haven assets and speculative tech both came under pressure. Midstream & MLP (MLPX) and energy-related themes were the primary gainers, while precious metals themes saw a major correction, with Gold Miners (GDX) plunging -5.96% after silver and gold hit recent peaks and triggered a wave of profit-taking.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Global X Social Media ETF (SOCL) | +0.55% |
| USCF Midstream Energy Income Fund ETF (UMI) | +0.49% |
| Tortoise Essential Energy Fund (TPZ) | +0.49% |
| Pacer American Energy Independence ETF (USAI) | +0.48% |
| Global X MLP & Energy Infrastructure ETF (MLPX) | +0.48% |
| VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) | -6.40% |
| Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) | -6.46% |
| iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) | -6.55% |
| U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU) | -6.61% |
| Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) | -8.33% |
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
International developed markets were mixed, with the Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) slipping -0.30%. South Korea provided a massive outlier as the South Korea (EWY) surged +3.01%, contrasting sharply with weakness in Hong Kong (EWH), which fell -2.05%. Major European economies like Germany (EWG) were relatively stable, posting a minor -0.33% decline.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.30% | -0.30% | 2.99% | 5.42% | 31.89% | 31.03% |
| Australia (EWA) | -0.75% | -0.75% | 4.20% | -0.17% | 14.61% | 13.65% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.86% | -0.86% | 4.02% | 8.63% | 36.93% | 36.20% |
| France (EWQ) | -0.42% | -0.42% | 1.45% | 3.29% | 28.88% | 28.23% |
| Germany (EWG) | -0.33% | -0.33% | 3.89% | 2.90% | 35.80% | 34.45% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | -2.05% | -2.05% | -0.38% | 3.05% | 35.83% | 35.02% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +0.15% | 0.15% | 1.39% | 4.53% | 26.44% | 25.26% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | -0.28% | -0.28% | 1.74% | 2.62% | 34.80% | 32.98% |
| South Korea (EWY) | +3.01% | 3.01% | 11.11% | 25.83% | 98.40% | 96.20% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | -0.31% | -0.31% | 4.38% | 10.59% | 33.81% | 32.71% |
| U.K. (EWU) | -0.50% | -0.50% | 4.00% | 7.79% | 35.08% | 34.84% |
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets faced volatility as the Emerging (EEM) index retreated -0.26%. China (MCHI) dropped -1.47%, continuing to struggle with a -6.74% return over the last three months. In contrast, Indonesia (EIDO) gained +1.08%, making it a rare leader in the EM space. South Africa (EZA) saw the heaviest selling among major countries, plunging -2.67%.
| Country (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging (EEM) | -0.26% | -0.26% | 2.08% | 4.24% | 33.85% | 32.33% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.98% | -0.98% | -3.48% | 4.68% | 46.74% | 46.42% |
| China (MCHI) | -1.47% | -1.47% | -1.75% | -6.74% | 31.69% | 29.99% |
| India (INDA) | -0.69% | -0.69% | -2.27% | 2.51% | 1.58% | 0.70% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | +1.08% | 1.08% | 0.87% | 6.45% | 4.64% | 4.30% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.40% | -0.40% | 5.82% | 8.48% | 16.43% | 17.49% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.90% | -0.90% | 5.06% | 6.55% | 56.31% | 52.49% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -2.67% | -2.67% | 8.17% | 13.83% | 74.29% | 70.66% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | +0.49% | 0.49% | 2.69% | 5.02% | 27.99% | 26.07% |
| Thailand (THD) | -2.86% | -2.86% | 1.48% | 0.21% | 1.43% | 0.28% |
Fixed Income
Treasury yields drifted lower on Monday as investors sought shelter in government bonds amid the broader equity slip. The Government Long (SPTL) led category performance with a +0.34% gain. Taxable Core (AGG) rose +0.12%. Higher-risk areas like Emerging (EMLC) and Convertible (CWB) debt were the primary laggards, falling -0.43% and -0.49% respectively.
| Category (Ticker) | 1 Day | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taxable Core (AGG) | +0.12% | 0.12% | 0.00% | 1.22% | 7.49% | 7.78% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | +0.11% | 0.11% | 0.09% | 1.34% | 7.71% | 8.02% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | +0.11% | 0.11% | 0.59% | 2.14% | 9.78% | 10.03% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.00% | 0.00% | 0.31% | 0.96% | 4.13% | 4.15% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | +0.08% | 0.08% | 0.29% | 1.27% | 6.05% | 6.31% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | +0.21% | 0.21% | -1.10% | 0.13% | 7.20% | 7.48% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | +0.09% | 0.09% | 0.32% | 1.18% | 5.03% | 5.35% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | +0.07% | 0.07% | -0.06% | 1.30% | 7.68% | 7.99% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | +0.34% | 0.34% | -1.31% | 0.16% | 6.12% | 6.69% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | +0.09% | 0.09% | -0.40% | 0.11% | 7.00% | 7.18% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | +0.03% | 0.03% | 0.29% | 1.44% | 8.10% | 8.27% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.04% | 0.04% | 0.49% | 1.20% | 8.60% | 8.74% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.78% | 1.99% | 6.77% | 6.87% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | -0.19% | -0.19% | 0.95% | -0.63% | 5.00% | 5.71% |
| Convertible (CWB) | -0.49% | -0.49% | -0.32% | 0.01% | 17.63% | 16.37% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | +0.09% | 0.09% | 0.38% | 1.71% | 8.64% | 8.93% |
| International USD (BNDX) | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.42% | 0.42% | 2.97% | 3.27% |
| International (IGOV) | +0.04% | 0.04% | 0.91% | -0.18% | 10.58% | 10.58% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | +0.05% | 0.05% | 0.64% | 2.92% | 14.22% | 14.21% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | -0.43% | -0.43% | 1.09% | 2.98% | 18.44% | 17.72% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | +0.07% | 0.07% | 0.37% | 0.74% | 3.58% | 3.82% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | +0.14% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 1.66% | 3.71% | 4.09% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | +0.21% | 0.21% | 0.61% | 2.01% | 2.28% | 3.14% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | +0.05% | 0.05% | 0.34% | 1.82% | 2.78% | 3.36% |
Commodities
Commodity markets witnessed a dramatic day as oil prices surged and precious metals corrected. WTI Crude Oil (USO) climbed +1.65%, while Natural Gas (UNG) jumped +1.87%. However, the Precious Metals (DBP) index plummeted -5.83%, with Silver (SLV) and Palladium (PALL) seeing declines of -7.19% and -14.13% respectively, as high-flying metals cooled off.
| Commodity (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -2.32% | -2.32% | 0.37% | 7.10% | 18.29% | 19.48% |
| Energy (DBE) | +1.26% | 1.26% | -3.81% | -4.33% | -1.25% | 0.92% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | +1.65% | 1.65% | -2.05% | -6.68% | -7.86% | -5.74% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | -5.83% | -5.83% | 8.05% | 20.27% | 75.26% | 75.38% |
| Gold (GLD) | -4.35% | -4.35% | 2.76% | 13.09% | 64.62% | 65.12% |
| Silver (SLV) | -7.19% | -7.19% | 28.90% | 55.32% | 150.70% | 146.67% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | -1.71% | -1.71% | 5.05% | 12.25% | 22.49% | 21.27% |
| Agriculture (DBA) | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.57% | -1.26% | -0.08% | 2.78% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets saw a broadly defensive session to start the week. Bitcoin (IBIT) declined -0.46%, and Multi-Coin (NCIQ) fell -0.60%. Despite the broader weakness, Solana (SOLZ) managed to print a +0.56% gain, showcasing some idiosyncratic strength in a quiet year-end market.
| Asset (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | WTD | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -0.60% | -0.60% | -6.19% | -27.02% | — | — |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -0.46% | -0.46% | -4.21% | -24.00% | -6.92% | -8.01% |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -0.18% | -0.18% | -3.70% | -30.33% | -12.61% | -12.44% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | +0.56% | 0.56% | -10.47% | -44.21% | — | — |
What to Watch Today
On Tuesday, December 30, investors are focused on the release of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for December at 10:00 AM ET. Preliminary results indicate a fifth consecutive monthly decline, falling to 89.1 from November’s 92.9. This data is critical as it highlights growing consumer unease regarding business conditions and the labor market heading into 2026. While the “Santa Claus rally” often provides a year-end boost, a significant miss in confidence could exacerbate profit-taking as the market evaluates the likelihood of a continued soft landing versus recessionary risks in the coming year.
For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
