Risk On! Tech & AI Fuel Market Rally as Rate Cut Hopes Rise

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Macro Overview

U.S. equity markets kicked off the holiday-shortened week with a decisive rally on Monday, driven by renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and expectations for a December rate cut. The S&P 500 (IVV) climbed +1.48%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged nearly 2% to record highs. Gains were broad-based but led heavily by the Technology sector, as mega-cap tech names rebounded sharply. Sentiment was further bolstered by bond yields holding steady, with the 10-year Treasury yield easing slightly to 4.04%.

U.S. Size & Style

The rally was dominated by large-cap growth stocks, with Large Growth (IVW) advancing +2.36% on the day. While market breadth was generally positive, smaller companies lagged their larger counterparts; Small Growth (IJT) posted the softest gain of the style box at +1.09%. Value factors underperformed across all market capitalizations, with Large Value (IVE) rising just +0.48%.

Name (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) +0.48% +0.48% -1.30% +2.01% +9.87% +3.49%
Large Cap (IVV) +1.48% +1.48% -1.24% +3.95% +15.22% +13.74%
Large Growth (IVW) +2.36% +2.36% -1.12% +5.66% +19.87% +22.33%
Mid Value (IJJ) +0.78% +0.78% -1.93% -1.41% +3.93% -2.12%
Mid Cap (IJH) +1.00% +1.00% -2.41% -0.92% +4.30% -2.37%
Mid Growth (IJK) +0.98% +0.98% -3.04% -0.69% +4.25% -2.99%
Small Value (IJS) +1.30% +1.30% -3.22% +0.30% +2.13% -3.64%
Small Cap (IJR) +1.31% +1.31% -3.34% -0.82% +2.69% -4.49%
Small Growth (IJT) +1.09% +1.09% -3.49% -2.00% +3.11% -5.67%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology (XLK) led the charge with a robust +2.38% gain, fueled by resurgent strength in semiconductor and software industries. Consumer Discretionary (XLY) also outperformed, rising +1.33%. Defensive sectors struggled to keep pace, with Consumer Staples (XLP) falling -1.16% as investors rotated back into riskier assets. Energy (XLE) also finished in the red, down -0.28% amid fluctuating oil prices.

Sector (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Technology (XLK) +2.38% +2.38% -4.72% +6.72% +20.85% +20.49%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +1.33% +1.33% -3.85% -1.80% +2.52% +5.66%
Utilities (XLU) +1.13% +1.13% -2.45% +4.31% +20.23% +12.65%
Communication Services (XLC) +0.99% +0.99% -2.20% +1.88% +17.77% +17.98%
Financials (XLF) +0.43% +0.43% -2.30% -2.82% +8.47% +3.78%
Health Care (XLV) +0.42% +0.42% +6.32% +12.88% +14.35% +9.61%
Industrials (XLI) +0.25% +0.25% -3.17% -1.65% +15.00% +6.76%
Materials (XLB) +0.20% +0.20% -2.80% -5.69% +4.33% -6.22%
Real Estate (XLRE) +0.15% +0.15% -3.96% -2.52% +3.03% -3.95%
Energy (XLE) -0.28% -0.28% +1.25% +2.03% +6.68% -5.27%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -1.16% -1.16% -2.64% -5.98% -0.18% -3.38%

Global Thematic

Digital asset-related themes dominated the leaderboard, tracking a sharp rebound in cryptocurrency markets. CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) surged +13.35%, while broader blockchain and digital economy funds also posted double-digit gains. Conversely, energy infrastructure and homebuilder themes faced headwinds, with Invesco Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ) and State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) among the day’s laggards.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

International developed markets were mixed, with Hong Kong (EWH) leading the way, gaining +1.98%, while Canada (EWC) rose +1.23%. European markets were generally softer; France (EWQ) lagged with a -0.82% decline. The broad Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) index finished flat, adding just +0.09%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +0.09% +0.09% -2.43% -0.54% +24.76% +23.28%
Australia (EWA) +0.43% +0.43% -6.40% -6.68% +8.25% -0.22%
Canada (EWC) +1.23% +1.23% +0.41% +6.29% +27.52% +21.20%
France (EWQ) -0.82% -0.82% -3.95% -1.92% +23.49% +24.59%
Germany (EWG) +0.18% +0.18% -5.10% -7.48% +26.09% +27.74%
Hong Kong (EWH) +1.98% +1.98% +3.36% +3.03% +35.67% +36.17%
Japan (EWJ) +0.68% +0.68% -0.92% +2.15% +22.80% +23.17%
Netherlands (EWN) +0.05% +0.05% -5.02% +3.25% +27.44% +27.80%
South Korea (EWY) +1.21% +1.21% -1.90% +22.84% +77.44% +59.11%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.53% -0.53% -1.28% +1.35% +25.03% +21.54%
U.K. (EWU) -0.33% -0.33% -2.01% -0.38% +26.19% +24.19%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets posted solid gains, with Indonesia (EIDO) rallying +2.23% and China (MCHI) adding +1.71% as sentiment in Asia improved. Emerging (EEM) as a whole rose +1.05%. Most major single-country ETFs finished in positive territory, with India (INDA) lagging slightly at flat performance.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) +1.05% +1.05% -2.61% +5.98% +29.54% +27.29%
Brazil (EWZ) +0.53% +0.53% +5.64% +12.55% +45.65% +24.60%
China (MCHI) +1.71% +1.71% -3.95% +0.63% +33.51% +37.14%
India (INDA) +0.02% +0.02% -0.53% +1.19% +3.00% +0.71%
Indonesia (EIDO) +2.23% +2.23% +2.62% +0.70% +4.36% -1.96%
Malaysia (EWM) +0.68% +0.68% +3.04% +2.92% +10.20% +13.28%
Mexico (EWW) +0.77% +0.77% +1.81% +5.97% +44.71% +39.46%
South Africa (EZA) +1.59% +1.59% +1.09% +12.06% +59.07% +46.67%
Taiwan (EWT) +1.15% +1.15% -5.97% +4.78% +20.77% +19.01%
Thailand (THD) +0.50% +0.50% -4.72% -0.36% -1.56% -5.61%

Fixed Income

Fixed income markets were relatively calm, with the Taxable Core (AGG) inching up +0.20%. Convertible (CWB) bonds were the standout performer, rising +1.99% in tandem with the broad equity rally. Treasuries saw modest gains across the curve, with Taxable Long Term (BLV) advancing +0.62% as yields eased.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.20% +0.20% -0.17% +2.24% +7.30% +6.98%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.17% +0.17% -0.10% +2.25% +7.40% +7.18%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) +0.22% +0.22% +0.04% +2.38% +8.65% +9.19%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) 0.00% 0.00% +0.29% +0.99% +3.73% +4.22%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.09% +0.09% +0.26% +1.39% +5.70% +6.28%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) +0.62% +0.62% -1.21% +3.76% +7.99% +5.93%
Government Short (SPTS) 0.00% 0.00% +0.23% +1.23% +4.63% +5.45%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.10% +0.10% +0.25% +1.90% +7.64% +7.62%
Government Long (SPTL) +0.56% +0.56% -0.93% +4.30% +7.29% +4.99%
Inflation Protected (TIP) +0.05% +0.05% -0.48% +1.02% +7.25% +6.38%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.12% +0.12% +0.01% +1.68% +7.50% +7.66%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.27% +0.27% -0.10% +1.14% +7.53% +7.44%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.14% +0.14% +0.53% +1.56% +5.54% +6.04%
Preferred Stock (PFF) +0.39% +0.39% -2.79% -2.01% +2.81% -0.10%
Convertible (CWB) +1.99% +1.99% -4.58% +3.31% +15.25% +11.25%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) +0.16% +0.16% -0.06% +2.75% +8.09% +7.71%
International USD (BNDX) -0.08% -0.08% -0.30% +1.15% +3.13% +3.38%
International (IGOV) +0.05% +0.05% -1.72% -1.42% +8.75% +7.21%
Emerging USD (EMB) +0.21% +0.21% +0.50% +3.58% +13.05% +12.12%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.24% +0.24% +0.43% +1.99% +16.17% +14.63%
Municipal Short (SUB) -0.03% -0.03% +0.30% +0.27% +3.09% +3.33%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) +0.04% +0.04% -0.12% +3.67% +3.31% +2.81%
Municipal Long (MLN) +0.17% +0.17% -0.64% +5.63% +1.47% +1.34%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) +0.33% +0.33% +0.40% +4.91% +2.24% +2.00%

Commodities

Commodity markets were mixed, with precious metals outperforming significantly. Silver (SLV) rallied +2.94% and Gold (GLD) added +1.58% as the dollar softened. Energy was split; WTI Crude Oil (USO) rose +1.62%, but Natural Gas (UNG) tumbled -1.64%.

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) +0.52% +0.52% +1.02% +8.11% +14.65% +14.95%
Energy (DBE) +1.04% +1.04% -0.32% +0.36% +2.47% +3.52%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) +1.62% +1.62% -3.77% -5.65% -6.79% -5.16%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) +1.61% +1.61% -2.72% -4.23% -3.24% -2.82%
Natural Gas (UNG) -1.64% -1.64% +11.10% +20.99% -14.28% +0.70%
Gasoline (UGA) +1.29% +1.29% +2.41% +2.34% +4.76% +4.56%
Precious Metals (DBP) +1.95% +1.95% +1.15% +22.88% +56.53% +51.70%
Gold (GLD) +1.58% +1.58% +0.71% +22.42% +57.02% +52.18%
Silver (SLV) +2.94% +2.94% +6.00% +31.95% +77.10% +63.79%
Platinum (PPLT) +2.00% +2.00% -3.81% +13.48% +69.40% +59.44%
Palladium (PALL) +2.00% +2.00% -2.36% +23.84% +52.30% +38.41%
Industrial Metals (DBB) +0.42% +0.42% -0.93% +8.96% +13.53% +12.24%
Copper (CPER) +0.13% +0.13% -1.52% +12.03% +23.65% +21.19%
Agriculture (DBA) -0.77% -0.77% -3.42% -6.92% -3.42% +0.85%
Corn (CORN) -0.06% -0.06% -0.14% +1.68% -6.29% -2.66%
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.26% -0.26% +4.79% +4.11% +8.57% +10.56%
Wheat (WEAT) -0.72% -0.72% +1.22% -1.42% -13.69% -15.62%
Sugar (CANE) +0.69% +0.69% +0.32% -12.97% -16.35% -24.18%

Cryptocurrency

Crypto markets enjoyed a spectacular day, with major tokens posting significant gains. Bitcoin (IBIT) jumped +5.42%, but was outpaced by Solana (SOLZ), which soared +9.27%. The rally extended across the asset class, lifting multi-token baskets as well.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Bitcoin (IBIT) +5.42% +5.42% -19.51% -23.67% -4.67% -10.48%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) +6.73% +6.73% -19.84% -27.16%
Ethereum (ETHA) +8.45% +8.45% -24.44% -38.64% -11.23% -10.09%
Solana (SOLZ) +9.27% +9.27% -28.87% -33.32%

What to Watch Today

Investors turn their attention to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for November, set for release at 10:00 AM ET. Markets are looking for insights into consumer sentiment ahead of the crucial holiday shopping season. A reading of 93.5 is expected, a slight moderation from the previous month. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce the soft-landing narrative, while a significant miss might reignite concerns about consumer resilience in the face of cooling labor market data.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.