Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets exhibited resilience on Monday, with the IVV advancing 0.16% as investors navigated headlines surrounding a Department of Justice probe into the Federal Reserve Chair. International markets outperformed their domestic counterparts, as developed markets via EFA rose 0.61%, while Emerging Markets EEM surged 1.40% behind a significant 3.28% rally in Chinese equities. Fixed income remained under pressure at the long end of the curve, though Broad Commodities DJP gained 1.58% amid a speculative surge in silver. Cryptocurrency assets showed modest gains, with IBIT rising 1.39%, maintaining a firm footing above key moving averages as the market prepares for a pivotal week of inflation data and bank earnings.
U.S. Size & Style
Technical breadth remains healthy across the style box, with over 67% of IVV constituents trading above their 50-day moving average. Growth-oriented segments led the daily session, with Mid Growth IJK and Small Growth IJT advancing 0.49% and 0.48% respectively, while Value cohorts lagged. Small Value IJS appears technically stretched to the downside in relative terms despite an RSI of 66.99, as investors favored higher-beta growth names to start the week.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style Box Performance | |||||
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.08% | +2.16% | +7.77% | +2.43% | +17.43% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | +0.16% | +2.27% | +6.78% | +1.94% | +21.24% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | +0.34% | +2.32% | +5.86% | +1.48% | +24.31% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.28% | +2.89% | +10.27% | +4.48% | +13.51% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | +0.16% | +3.56% | +9.98% | +4.88% | +13.43% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | +0.49% | +3.97% | +9.62% | +5.13% | +12.98% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.39% | +2.95% | +13.80% | +5.49% | +15.36% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | +0.09% | +2.43% | +11.26% | +5.29% | +13.61% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | +0.48% | +1.80% | +8.84% | +4.97% | +11.63% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
The Materials sector XLB entered overbought territory with an RSI of 73.69, supported by 100% of its constituents trading above their 50-day SMA. Consumer Staples XLP demonstrated defensive strength, rising 1.17% on the day, while Financials XLF struggled with a 0.79% decline as bank shares were weighed down by potential interest rate caps on credit cards. Despite the volatility, Industrials XLI maintained strong momentum, trading 5.34% above its 50-day average following positive developments in aerospace and defense.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | +1.17% | +1.77% | +3.49% | +3.22% | +7.90% |
| Industrials (XLI) | +0.77% | +4.45% | +9.22% | +5.19% | +25.93% |
| Materials (XLB) | +0.54% | +8.01% | +12.30% | +6.99% | +18.79% |
| Technology (XLK) | +0.44% | +2.31% | +5.62% | +1.96% | +29.11% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | +0.30% | +0.76% | +0.94% | +0.67% | +7.21% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.16% | +0.16% | -4.88% | -0.26% | +15.87% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | +0.09% | +3.37% | +9.08% | +4.28% | +13.74% |
| Health Care (XLV) | +0.04% | +2.59% | +11.21% | +1.67% | +14.68% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.31% | +1.18% | +4.55% | -0.14% | +24.17% |
| Energy (XLE) | -0.71% | +2.68% | +9.67% | +3.65% | +8.36% |
| Financial (XLF) | -0.79% | +0.97% | +6.37% | +0.95% | +18.45% |
Global Thematic
Thematic strategies were dominated by the rally in Silver Miners, with SLVP and SLVR gaining over 6%. Cannabis and Bitcoin Mining themes also showed robust momentum as risk-on sentiment returned in speculative pockets. Conversely, oncology and disruptive medicine themes lagged, with SURI and CANC pulling back more than 1% as investors rotated toward industrial and natural resource-linked themes.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Leaders | |
| iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners ETF (SLVP) | +6.15% |
| Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) | +6.02% |
| Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) | +5.97% |
| AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) | +5.68% |
| Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) | +5.63% |
| Laggards | |
| Simplify Propel Opportunities ETF (SURI) | -1.31% |
| Tema Oncology ETF (CANC) | -1.23% |
| Fidelity Disruptive Medicine ETF (FMED) | -1.22% |
| Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ) | -1.17% |
| Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY) | -1.14% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Developed international markets via EFA have reached an overbought RSI of 70.85, supported by broad strength in the Netherlands EWN and Germany EWG. In the Emerging space, China MCHI surged 3.28%, while South Africa EZA gained 2.96% as metals prices supported resource-heavy nations. South Korea EWY remains a significant technical outlier with an RSI of 76.51 and an extraordinary 108.16% return over the past year, though daily performance was muted.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets ex-U.S. | |||||
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | +0.61% | +4.89% | +9.74% | +3.52% | +37.18% |
| Australia (EWA) | +0.72% | +1.45% | +1.76% | +0.99% | +14.72% |
| Canada (EWC) | +0.84% | +3.14% | +11.48% | +2.15% | +39.82% |
| France (EWQ) | +0.48% | +3.24% | +7.03% | +2.47% | +31.98% |
| Germany (EWG) | +0.97% | +3.91% | +5.56% | +3.13% | +39.10% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | +0.94% | +6.36% | +12.59% | +6.02% | +50.08% |
| Japan (EWJ) | +0.80% | +5.38% | +12.97% | +5.64% | +36.78% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | +1.06% | +8.15% | +11.90% | +7.03% | +43.81% |
| South Korea (EWY) | +0.04% | +20.22% | +38.02% | +12.04% | +108.16% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | +0.08% | +3.87% | +8.07% | +1.12% | +33.13% |
| U.K. (EWU) | +0.67% | +6.20% | +10.15% | +2.52% | +40.06% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Emerging (EEM) | +1.40% | +8.36% | +13.16% | +5.90% | +44.41% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.39% | +2.38% | +18.49% | +3.65% | +53.08% |
| China (MCHI) | +3.28% | +5.74% | +5.96% | +6.98% | +50.27% |
| India (INDA) | +0.42% | +0.49% | +1.19% | -1.20% | +4.28% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -0.11% | +2.21% | +10.77% | +1.55% | +7.89% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | +1.38% | +5.32% | +12.18% | +2.23% | +22.69% |
| Mexico (EWW) | +1.41% | +3.92% | +14.09% | +3.94% | +58.66% |
| South Africa (EZA) | +2.96% | +11.88% | +21.26% | +5.78% | +88.88% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | +1.06% | +8.72% | +13.10% | +4.86% | +36.27% |
| Thailand (THD) | -0.12% | +1.53% | +4.06% | +0.15% | +6.76% |
Fixed Income
The fixed income landscape reflected a steepening bias, as Government Long SPTL fell 0.23% while ultrashort rates via BIL remained anchored. Credit spreads stayed tight, with Taxable High Yield HYG gaining 0.05% and Bank Loans BKLN holding flat. Convertible securities CWB were a notable outlier, surging 0.90% behind the equity market rally, while emerging market local currency bonds EMLC benefited from a weaker dollar, rising 0.39%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core & Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Core (AGG) | -0.05% | +0.64% | +0.67% | +0.23% | +8.52% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | -0.06% | +0.59% | +0.83% | +0.21% | +8.65% |
| Taxable Multisector (PYLD) | -0.04% | +1.05% | +2.25% | +0.45% | +10.62% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | +0.01% | +0.27% | +0.94% | +0.11% | +4.14% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | 0.00% | +0.30% | +0.87% | -0.03% | +6.37% |
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | -0.21% | +0.88% | -0.92% | +0.46% | +9.06% |
| Government & Treasuries | |||||
| Government Short (SPTS) | 0.00% | +0.26% | +0.80% | -0.03% | +5.26% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.03% | +0.29% | +0.46% | -0.03% | +8.24% |
| Government Long (SPTL) | -0.23% | +0.84% | -1.56% | +0.42% | +8.03% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.00% | +0.27% | -0.27% | +0.25% | +7.36% |
| Corporate & Specialty | |||||
| Corporate (SPIB) | -0.06% | +0.49% | +1.10% | +0.06% | +8.70% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | +0.05% | +1.06% | +2.84% | +0.51% | +9.32% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | 0.00% | +0.73% | +2.97% | +0.29% | +7.03% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | +0.16% | +2.15% | +2.94% | +2.13% | +8.34% |
| Convertible (CWB) | +0.90% | +3.37% | +2.93% | +4.41% | +21.81% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.16% | +1.09% | +1.47% | +0.45% | +10.27% |
| International & EM | |||||
| International USD (BNDX) | +0.08% | +0.74% | +0.32% | +0.54% | +4.53% |
| International (IGOV) | +0.34% | +0.31% | +0.05% | +0.07% | +12.81% |
| Emerging USD (EMB) | -0.08% | +0.42% | +2.99% | 0.00% | +14.20% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | +0.39% | +1.64% | +4.37% | +0.54% | +19.86% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal Short (SUB) | -0.04% | +0.47% | +0.88% | +0.21% | +3.99% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | -0.10% | +0.92% | +1.46% | +0.41% | +5.09% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | -0.37% | +0.73% | +0.93% | +0.11% | +3.61% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | +0.01% | +0.98% | +2.14% | +0.37% | +4.05% |
Commodities
Broad Commodities via DJP saw a meaningful 1.58% advance, anchored by a significant rally in Precious Metals DBP, which gained 3.18%. Silver SLV remains in a technically parabolic state, gaining 6.70% on the day and extending its one-year return to nearly 180%. While energy markets were mixed, Natural Gas UNG spiked 7.50% despite an extremely weak long-term trend, whereas Agricultural commodities DBA continued to lag the broader complex.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | +1.58% | +5.09% | +11.26% | +4.33% | +17.03% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Agriculture (DBA) | -0.58% | +0.11% | +0.87% | +0.43% | +0.37% |
| Corn (CORN) | -4.14% | -3.38% | -0.87% | -3.27% | -10.82% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | -0.72% | -2.44% | +1.93% | +0.50% | +0.97% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.74% | -1.66% | -0.05% | +1.10% | -14.27% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -0.09% | -0.87% | -5.93% | -0.92% | -16.46% |
| Energy | |||||
| Energy (DBE) | +1.62% | +1.60% | +2.27% | +2.40% | -5.58% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | +1.23% | +4.13% | +3.26% | +3.60% | -11.15% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | +1.43% | +5.27% | +4.39% | +5.01% | -7.70% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | +7.50% | -12.18% | -9.33% | -8.81% | -39.31% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | +1.20% | +2.37% | +6.32% | +4.89% | -0.46% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | +1.30% | +12.11% | +19.44% | +5.54% | +32.27% |
| Copper (CPER) | +2.02% | +12.34% | +21.84% | +5.49% | +37.15% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Precious Metals (DBP) | +3.18% | +13.22% | +25.47% | +9.69% | +84.32% |
| Gold (GLD) | +1.87% | +6.77% | +14.39% | +6.54% | +70.11% |
| Silver (SLV) | +6.70% | +37.66% | +70.00% | +19.89% | +179.72% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | +2.58% | +33.40% | +45.51% | +13.79% | +141.67% |
| Palladium (PALL) | +1.93% | +24.12% | +30.80% | +16.54% | +95.22% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets displayed a resilient risk profile, with Solana SOLZ leading the group with a 3.38% advance on Monday. Major institutional vehicles like Bitcoin IBIT and Ethereum ETHA gained 1.39% and 1.08% respectively, holding firm above their 50-day moving averages. XRP was the lone outlier in the primary cohort, declining 0.86%, as the broader market structure legislation remains a focal point for the digital asset community heading into the week.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana (SOLZ) | +3.38% | +6.33% | -33.02% | +12.72% | – |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | +1.39% | +1.31% | -21.65% | +4.47% | -3.66% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | +1.31% | +1.54% | -22.61% | +5.55% | – |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | +1.08% | +0.73% | -22.38% | +4.50% | -5.06% |
| XRP (XRP) | -0.86% | +3.21% | – | +12.77% | – |
What to Watch Today
Market participants are laser-focused on today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to show headline inflation remaining steady at 2.7% year-over-year. This data point is critical for calibrating Fed policy expectations, especially following yesterday’s remarks from Fed Presidents Barkin, Bostic, and Williams. Additionally, the fourth-quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off today with JPMorgan Chase reporting, providing the first major look at the health of the U.S. consumer and corporate credit conditions. Geopolitical narratives, including the ongoing Supreme Court deliberation on tariff policy, remain a significant background risk that could trigger volatility in the coming sessions.
