Holiday Quiet: S&P 500 Holds Near Highs as Commodities Diverge

Share

Macro Overview

U.S. equity markets closed a holiday-shortened week on a quiet note, with major indexes finishing just below their record highs. The S&P 500 (IVV) edged lower by -0.02% in light post-Christmas trading. Despite the tepid Friday session, the benchmark index secured a +1.43% gain for the week, supported by continued optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and the potential for a “Santa Claus rally.” Investors largely looked past a robust third-quarter GDP revision of +4.3%, focusing instead on thin liquidity and technical positioning as the 2025 calendar draws to a close.

U.S. Size & Style

Performance across market capitalizations was largely flat on Friday, though small-cap value showed relative resilience. The Small Value (IJS) was the lone bright spot among broad styles with a +0.04% gain, while Small Growth (IJT) lagged with a -0.12% decline. Large-cap growth remained the year-to-date powerhouse, with the Large Growth (IVW) maintaining a staggering +23.66% return for 2025.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) -0.02% +0.99% +2.10% +4.74% +14.15% +12.32%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.02% +1.43% +1.86% +4.64% +19.28% +16.24%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.01% +1.82% +1.64% +4.49% +23.66% +19.43%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.01% +0.46% +2.34% +3.66% +9.02% +8.04%
Mid Cap (IJH) +0.01% +0.72% +2.54% +3.56% +9.59% +8.00%
Mid Growth (IJK) +0.02% +0.93% +2.64% +3.46% +9.76% +7.52%
Small Value (IJS) +0.04% +0.27% +2.73% +5.45% +8.42% +6.86%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.01% +0.61% +2.42% +4.42% +8.49% +6.49%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.12% +0.94% +2.09% +3.35% +8.45% +5.85%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

Defensive sectors and materials led the market as cyclicals took a breather. The Materials (XLB) sector surged +0.59%, buoyed by a significant rally in precious metal miners like Freeport-McMoRan. Conversely, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell -0.44%, despite individual strength in Target following reports of activist investor interest. Technology remained stable as Technology (XLK) gained +0.16%, helped by a +1.1% rise in Nvidia.

Sector (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Materials (XLB) +0.59% +2.15% +4.28% +4.33% +11.77% +10.12%
Real Estate (XLRE) +0.20% +1.56% -1.23% -2.20% +3.03% +2.52%
Health Care (XLV) +0.16% +1.14% -1.08% +15.65% +15.42% +13.74%
Technology (XLK) +0.16% +1.49% +3.43% +5.26% +26.81% +22.51%
Consumer Staples (XLP) +0.14% +0.10% -0.06% +1.15% +2.24% +0.85%
Utilities (XLU) -0.07% +1.10% -4.21% -0.70% +16.25% +15.32%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.10% +1.57% +3.40% +0.15% +23.33% +20.55%
Industrials (XLI) -0.18% +1.21% +3.23% +3.38% +20.94% +18.68%
Financial (XLF) -0.20% +1.77% +5.40% +3.62% +16.67% +14.82%
Energy (XLE) -0.38% +1.00% -0.15% -3.09% +6.65% +8.03%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.44% +0.36% +4.08% +2.03% +9.73% +5.38%

Global Thematic

Thematic strategies diverged sharply as metal-related themes outperformed while digital assets faced significant headwinds. Precious metal miners were the standout leaders, with the Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) gaining +4.68%. On the downside, crypto-related themes collapsed following a volatile night for Bitcoin, as the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) plummeted -4.93%.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

International developed markets outperformed their U.S. counterparts on Friday, led by significant strength in South Korea. The Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) rose +0.17%. South Korea was the clear leader as the South Korea (EWY) climbed +1.31%, while Japanese shares slipped marginally, with Japan (EWJ) down -0.04%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +0.17% +1.16% +3.64% +6.15% +32.29% +31.23%
Australia (EWA) +0.30% +3.09% +5.11% +1.76% +15.47% +13.29%
Canada (EWC) +0.37% +2.09% +5.82% +10.54% +38.12% +37.71%
France (EWQ) +0.44% +0.60% +2.20% +4.17% +29.42% +28.56%
Germany (EWG) +0.19% +1.31% +5.05% +3.52% +36.25% +33.77%
Hong Kong (EWH) +0.46% +1.39% +2.08% +7.16% +38.67% +35.98%
Japan (EWJ) -0.04% +0.48% +0.93% +4.47% +26.25% +26.03%
Netherlands (EWN) +0.11% +0.97% +2.70% +3.90% +35.18% +32.85%
South Korea (EWY) +1.31% +4.93% +7.07% +24.28% +92.61% +88.61%
Switzerland (EWL) +0.02% +1.63% +5.20% +11.57% +34.23% +32.33%
U.K. (EWU) +0.36% +1.61% +4.90% +8.46% +35.76% +34.96%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets posted solid broad-based gains, outperforming developed markets on Friday. The Emerging (EEM) benchmark rose +0.70%, with China (MCHI) gaining +1.09% as investors weighed domestic policy signals. India was a notable laggard in the region, with the India (INDA) falling -0.31%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) +0.70% +2.01% +2.49% +5.46% +34.20% +32.08%
Brazil (EWZ) +0.57% +1.80% -2.12% +6.61% +48.19% +46.82%
China (MCHI) +1.09% +1.06% +0.18% -3.57% +33.65% +30.94%
India (INDA) -0.31% -0.57% -1.52% +3.04% +2.28% +1.11%
Indonesia (EIDO) +0.11% -0.59% -1.27% +5.85% +3.52% +2.85%
Malaysia (EWM) -0.18% +1.62% +5.40% +9.13% +16.90% +18.59%
Mexico (EWW) +0.28% +3.34% +6.85% +8.03% +57.72% +52.51%
South Africa (EZA) +0.56% +4.01% +9.35% +17.18% +79.07% +75.15%
Taiwan (EWT) +0.78% +2.24% +3.56% +5.07% +27.36% +25.26%
Thailand (THD) -0.69% +2.06% +4.84% +3.64% +4.41% +3.66%

Fixed Income

Treasury yields held relatively steady on Friday as the bond market processed a revised GDP figure that reinforced expectations of “higher for longer” rates. The Taxable Core (AGG) gained +0.02% on the day. Corporate debt showed modest strength, with Corporate (SPIB) rising +0.12%, while high-duration assets like the Government Long (SPTL) dipped -0.15%.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) +0.02% +0.20% -0.26% +1.29% +7.36% +7.43%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) +0.02% +0.24% -0.14% +1.43% +7.59% +7.66%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) -0.04% +0.36% +0.51% +2.10% +9.65% +9.82%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.03% +0.07% +0.35% +0.97% +4.13% +4.19%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) +0.06% +0.09% +0.19% +1.28% +5.97% +6.24%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) -0.11% +0.46% -1.63% +0.60% +6.97% +6.49%
Government Short (SPTS) +0.07% +0.03% +0.26% +1.16% +4.94% +5.30%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) +0.10% +0.14% -0.23% +1.41% +7.61% +7.84%
Government Long (SPTL) -0.15% +0.38% -2.08% +0.53% +5.76% +5.48%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.01% +0.10% -0.71% +0.15% +6.91% +6.81%
Corporate (SPIB) +0.12% +0.30% +0.20% +1.53% +8.07% +8.07%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) -0.05% +0.30% +0.51% +1.33% +8.56% +8.32%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.10% +0.40% +0.97% +2.09% +6.82% +6.98%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.13% -0.26% +1.24% -0.45% +5.21% +5.31%
Convertible (CWB) -0.35% +0.21% +0.93% +1.54% +18.20% +15.90%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) -0.06% +0.28% +0.07% +1.83% +8.54% +8.78%
International USD (BNDX) +0.00% +0.39% -0.35% +0.64% +3.08% +2.93%
International (IGOV) +0.11% +1.22% +0.80% +0.30% +10.54% +9.99%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.01% +0.28% +0.62% +3.04% +14.16% +13.72%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.04% +0.74% +1.63% +3.54% +18.95% +18.39%
Municipal Short (SUB) -0.03% +0.03% +0.30% +0.66% +3.51% +3.78%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) -0.07% +0.17% +0.06% +1.67% +3.56% +3.96%
Municipal Long (MLN) -0.17% -0.06% +0.47% +2.20% +2.06% +2.70%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) +0.00% +0.22% +0.21% +2.17% +2.73% +3.24%

Commodities

Commodities were defined by massive strength in precious and industrial metals against a backdrop of weakness in the energy complex. The Precious Metals (DBP) segment surged +3.10%, with silver and palladium leading the charge on all-time highs for gold. Conversely, Energy (DBE) fell -1.75%, weighed down by a -2.45% drop in WTI Crude Oil (USO).

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) +1.46% +4.43% +4.60% +9.83% +21.10% +22.39%
Energy (DBE) -1.75% +0.75% -3.77% -7.66% -2.48% +0.66%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) -2.45% +0.66% -2.23% -11.09% -9.36% -6.36%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) -2.14% +0.57% -2.53% -10.08% -6.21% -4.29%
Natural Gas (UNG) +3.39% +5.09% -10.11% +2.73% -23.80% -16.66%
Gasoline (UGA) -2.55% -0.34% -6.43% -7.02% -2.27% +0.56%
Precious Metals (DBP) +3.10% +7.87% +17.36% +29.73% +86.11% +84.86%
Gold (GLD) +1.17% +4.44% +8.78% +20.19% +72.11% +71.45%
Silver (SLV) +9.05% +16.72% +46.94% +69.90% +170.11% +162.05%
Platinum (PPLT) +7.64% +22.53% +51.88% +53.06% +165.07% +156.42%
Palladium (PALL) +12.40% +12.72% +35.79% +51.76% +110.62% +107.08%
Industrial Metals (DBB) +2.14% +3.75% +8.05% +16.12% +24.62% +22.66%
Copper (CPER) +4.71% +6.58% +12.47% +21.93% +42.33% +38.32%
Agriculture (DBA) +0.04% +1.45% +1.72% -1.48% -0.04% +1.26%
Corn (CORN) +0.17% +1.74% +0.89% +2.72% -3.57% -2.84%
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.18% +1.50% -4.81% +2.76% +4.00% +5.65%
Wheat (WEAT) -0.15% +2.30% -2.48% -2.43% -15.19% -13.76%
Sugar (CANE) -0.40% +2.34% +1.19% -5.78% -13.82% -13.67%

Cryptocurrency

Digital assets showed significant volatility into the weekend, with Bitcoin managing a small recovery on Friday to close at +0.30%, trading around $87,500. However, Ethereum struggled, as the Ethereum (ETHA) fell -0.14%. The broader market remains under pressure following a major liquidation event in the fourth quarter.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Ethereum (ETHA) -0.14% -2.21% -3.32% -27.31% -12.46% -12.11%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) +0.18% -1.02% -4.68% -23.16%
XRP (XRP) +0.19% -3.03% -16.81%
Solana (SOLZ) +0.21% -3.84% -14.78% -41.06%
Bitcoin (IBIT) +0.30% -0.60% -2.78% -19.91% -6.48% -8.64%

What to Watch Today

Investors are monitoring today’s release of the Pending Home Sales data for November, which is expected to show a +1.9% month-over-month increase. This report is a crucial leading indicator for the health of the U.S. housing market and real estate-linked ETFs. Additionally, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for December will provide a final regional look at manufacturing activity for the year, with a consensus forecast of -10.4, suggesting continued contraction in the industrial sector.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.