Macro Overview
Equity markets staged a broad-based rally on Wednesday, characterized by a significant rotation into riskier segments and international markets. U.S. Large Caps (IVV) advanced 1.13%, yet was outpaced by international counterparts as Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) rose 1.03% and Emerging Markets (EEM) gained 1.66%. A massive outlier emerged in South Korea (EWY), which surged 4.23% in a single session, significantly boosting regional performance. Fixed income markets saw a general easing of yields, lifting the Core Bond ETF (AGG) by 0.33%, while Commodities (DJP) appreciated 1.85% behind a surge in energy prices.
U.S. Size & Style
Small-cap equities led the U.S. market higher as risk appetite returned, with Small Value (IJS) gaining 2.91% and Small Cap Blend (IJR) rising 2.60%. From a technical perspective, the small-cap complex is nearing overbought territory, with IJR reaching an RSI of 68.85 and 76.45% of its constituents trading above their 200-day moving average. Growth lagged on a relative basis, as Large Growth (IVW) saw a modest 0.96% gain, while remaining the only style box with negative YTD returns at -0.97%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small Value (IJS) | 2.91% | 6.93% | 11.32% | 8.53% | 11.90% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | 2.60% | 6.32% | 9.13% | 8.27% | 10.12% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | 2.35% | 4.91% | 7.98% | 6.13% | 8.65% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | 2.30% | 5.69% | 6.92% | 7.87% | 8.20% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | 1.81% | 5.22% | 7.91% | 6.58% | 8.42% |
| Mid Growth (IJK) | 1.38% | 5.58% | 7.95% | 7.02% | 8.04% |
| Large Value (IVE) | 1.37% | 2.14% | 4.14% | 2.15% | 12.62% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | 1.13% | 0.71% | 2.42% | 0.49% | 15.10% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | 0.96% | -0.56% | 0.84% | -0.97% | 16.96% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) dominated the sector leaderboard, rising 2.42% and 2.18% respectively. The Materials sector (XLB) has moved into overbought territory with an RSI of 71.05, while exhibiting extreme breadth as 96.15% of its members trade above their 50-day moving average. Defensives were notable laggards, with Consumer Staples (XLP) and Utilities (XLU) managing only marginal gains of 0.10% and 0.14%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | 2.42% | 11.40% | 13.42% | 9.04% | 7.79% |
| Materials (XLB) | 2.18% | 9.08% | 11.73% | 8.58% | 12.25% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | 1.91% | -0.17% | 1.72% | 1.67% | 6.05% |
| Health Care (XLV) | 1.84% | 2.57% | 9.51% | 2.24% | 13.01% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 1.73% | 7.10% | 7.78% | 7.25% | 19.95% |
| Technology (XLK) | 1.39% | -0.40% | -0.10% | -0.11% | 22.59% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | 1.02% | -1.31% | -1.42% | -2.62% | 18.06% |
| Financials (XLF) | 0.49% | -2.18% | 1.73% | -2.39% | 7.00% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 0.36% | 4.14% | -0.82% | 2.97% | 2.72% |
| Utilities (XLU) | 0.14% | 1.67% | -4.33% | 0.77% | 10.53% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | 0.10% | 5.49% | 4.81% | 6.13% | 9.14% |
Global Thematic
Thematic ETFs were led by a resurgence in nuclear and battery-related plays, with Uranium Miners (URNM) climbing 5.37% and Lithium Miners (LITP) up 4.64%. This performance highlights a risk-on environment favoring energy transition themes. Conversely, precious metals themes faced headwinds, with the Drone ETF (DRNZ) and various gold miners like the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) finishing in the red.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| Top 5 Leaders | |
| Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM) | 5.37% |
| Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) | 5.02% |
| Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) | 4.64% |
| Global X Uranium ETF (URA) | 3.75% |
| VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) | 3.72% |
| Bottom 5 Laggards | |
| REX Drone ETF (DRNZ) | -2.45% |
| Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) | -1.92% |
| Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF (SLVR) | -1.59% |
| U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF (GOAU) | -1.56% |
| iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) | -1.47% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
International equities experienced a standout session, particularly in South Korea (EWY), which soared 4.23%, extending its 1-year performance to a staggering 112.45%. Technical signals in South Korea are extreme, with an RSI of 78.05. In Emerging Markets, Brazil (EWZ) also saw significant strength, gaining 4.16% and pushing its 3-month return to over 21% as commodity-sensitive markets benefitted from broader dollar weakness.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed Markets ex-U.S. | |||||
| South Korea (EWY) | 4.23% | 26.63% | 33.45% | 18.97% | 112.45% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | 1.48% | 8.71% | 9.51% | 7.91% | 38.21% |
| Hong Kong (EWH) | 1.35% | 4.58% | 9.49% | 6.35% | 44.34% |
| Japan (EWJ) | 1.27% | 5.21% | 6.56% | 5.00% | 31.74% |
| France (EWQ) | 1.12% | 0.31% | 0.66% | 0.13% | 21.31% |
| U.K. (EWU) | 1.03% | 3.72% | 9.71% | 2.68% | 33.54% |
| Australia (EWA) | 0.91% | 3.17% | 0.18% | 1.95% | 11.18% |
| Germany (EWG) | 0.66% | 1.71% | 2.71% | 0.75% | 28.10% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | 0.55% | 1.54% | 5.92% | 0.88% | 27.49% |
| Canada (EWC) | 0.49% | 2.50% | 11.05% | 2.02% | 35.54% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Brazil (EWZ) | 4.16% | 12.72% | 21.17% | 10.23% | 54.94% |
| Thailand (THD) | 1.91% | 7.20% | 9.72% | 7.11% | 11.86% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | 1.37% | 9.43% | 7.26% | 6.17% | 32.85% |
| China (MCHI) | 1.36% | 3.07% | -0.28% | 4.03% | 37.34% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | 1.36% | 3.90% | 11.53% | 3.29% | 23.13% |
| Mexico (EWW) | 1.01% | 9.46% | 18.06% | 8.70% | 61.70% |
| South Africa (EZA) | 0.11% | 8.76% | 22.59% | 6.86% | 80.20% |
| India (INDA) | -0.35% | -4.80% | -5.38% | -4.63% | 1.42% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | -0.99% | 2.04% | 5.25% | 1.28% | 5.07% |
Fixed Income
Fixed income assets broadly advanced as long-duration and credit-sensitive areas outperformed. Emerging USD Bonds (EMB) led with a 0.80% gain, followed closely by Taxable Long Term bonds (BLV) at 0.79%. This suggests a constructive environment for credit as Treasury yields moderated. Conversely, Bank Loans (BKLN) were the primary laggards, slipping 0.19%, reflecting a cooling in demand for floating-rate exposure.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | 0.79% | 0.27% | -2.56% | 0.32% | 6.10% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | 0.33% | 0.16% | -0.24% | 0.12% | 6.95% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.32% | 0.19% | -0.01% | 0.15% | 7.19% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.46% | -0.06% | 5.79% |
| Government | |||||
| Government Long (SPTL) | 0.68% | -0.04% | -3.25% | 0.04% | 4.84% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | 0.39% | 0.16% | -0.78% | 0.19% | 6.27% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | 0.10% | -0.28% | -0.30% | -0.28% | 6.82% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.01% | 0.27% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 4.11% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.59% | -0.04% | 4.93% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Convertible (CWB) | 0.78% | 4.00% | 2.40% | 5.20% | 18.77% |
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | 0.76% | 2.28% | 2.05% | 2.87% | 5.63% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | 0.30% | 0.38% | 0.37% | 0.24% | 8.36% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | 0.30% | 0.95% | 1.91% | 0.61% | 7.86% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.24% | 0.27% | 0.57% | 0.12% | 7.71% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | -0.19% | 0.38% | 2.13% | -0.06% | 6.29% |
| International & EM | |||||
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.80% | 0.24% | 1.46% | 0.23% | 12.32% |
| Emerging Local (EMLC) | 0.27% | 1.51% | 3.91% | 0.89% | 18.18% |
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.08% | 0.41% | -0.54% | 0.23% | 3.27% |
| International Local (IGOV) | -0.02% | 0.63% | -0.73% | -0.07% | 9.52% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.52% | -0.47% | -0.36% | -0.18% | 2.44% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | 0.25% | 0.74% | 0.72% | 0.36% | 4.33% |
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | 0.24% | 0.31% | 1.05% | 0.00% | 3.10% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | 0.00% | 0.50% | 1.14% | 0.34% | 3.88% |
Commodities
Commodities indices had a positive session, led by extreme volatility in Energy. Natural Gas (UNG) rocketed 10.27%, which contributed to the Broad Energy ETF (DBE) gaining 2.59%. Precious metals were mixed, with Gold (GLD) rising 1.46%, while Silver (SLV) lagged, dropping 1.67% as industrial demand concerns weighed on the white metal.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | 1.85% | 9.51% | 13.38% | 8.35% | 20.14% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 1.06% | 0.70% | 0.65% | 1.39% | -1.14% |
| Agriculture Broad (DBA) | 0.24% | 1.02% | -1.36% | 0.12% | -1.69% |
| Sugar (CANE) | 0.20% | -0.57% | -1.54% | -1.90% | -1.84% |
| Corn (CORN) | -0.17% | -3.60% | -1.78% | -3.27% | -13.65% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -0.30% | 0.35% | -0.50% | 0.40% | -18.66% |
| Energy | |||||
| Natural Gas (UNG) | 10.27% | 11.90% | 3.73% | 11.26% | -23.07% |
| Energy Broad (DBE) | 2.59% | 8.34% | 7.27% | 7.26% | -1.56% |
| Gasoline (UGA) | 2.48% | 7.97% | 8.78% | 8.04% | 1.70% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | 2.12% | 8.88% | 8.88% | 7.38% | -5.50% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | 2.06% | 7.81% | 7.43% | 6.04% | -9.58% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Industrial Metals Broad (DBB) | 0.04% | 7.75% | 16.33% | 3.53% | 26.59% |
| Copper (CPER) | -0.08% | 6.19% | 16.83% | 2.06% | 31.03% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Gold (GLD) | 1.46% | 11.17% | 17.59% | 11.93% | 75.25% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | 1.00% | 25.96% | 61.23% | 21.39% | 161.62% |
| Precious Metals Broad (DBP) | 0.87% | 16.60% | 30.36% | 16.07% | 92.09% |
| Palladium (PALL) | -0.45% | 8.14% | 31.40% | 16.09% | 92.79% |
| Silver (SLV) | -1.67% | 37.80% | 91.73% | 30.33% | 199.43% |
Cryptocurrency
Digital assets trended higher, albeit with wide dispersion across the market. XRP-themed products led the way with the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR) rising 4.76%. Solana (SOLZ) also showed relative strength with a 2.83% gain. Bitcoin (IBIT) and Ethereum (ETHA) were more restrained, rising 0.69% and 0.93% respectively, as the market looks for a catalyst to break out of recent ranges.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinshares Bitcoin ETF (BRRR) | 0.55% | 2.40% | -19.50% | 2.94% | -15.41% |
| Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO) | 0.56% | 2.40% | -19.50% | 2.94% | -15.41% |
| ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) | 0.56% | 2.40% | -19.50% | 2.94% | -15.41% |
| Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OBTC) | 0.59% | 2.40% | -19.50% | 2.94% | -15.41% |
| VanEck Bitcoin ETF (HODL) | 0.59% | 2.40% | -19.50% | 2.94% | -15.41% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | 0.69% | 2.40% | -19.50% | 2.94% | -15.41% |
| Ethereum (ETHA) | 0.93% | 1.06% | -24.44% | 2.01% | -8.84% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | 1.00% | 2.34% | -21.16% | 3.41% | — |
| Solana (SOLZ) | 2.83% | 2.91% | -33.96% | 5.26% | — |
| XRP (XRP) | 3.38% | 2.89% | — | 7.46% | — |
What to Watch Today
Investors remain focused on upcoming global macroeconomic indicators and the shifting dynamics of the yen carry trade as Japanese markets continue to influence global equity volatility. Central bank commentary remains the primary driver of duration sentiment, particularly as investors weigh the possibility of a “soft landing” against persistent inflationary pressures in the services sector. Additionally, geopolitical developments in the Asia-Pacific region will be closely monitored given the massive outperformance recently seen in the Korean and Taiwanese equity markets.
