Energy Surge Lifts Stocks Near Records Ahead of CPI Data

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities climbed on Thursday, pushing major indices back toward record highs. The S&P 500 (IVV) gained 0.57%, driven primarily by a surge in the energy sector. Oil prices jumped over 5% after the White House announced new sanctions on major Russian oil producers, renewing supply concerns. Strong earnings from several blue-chip companies also bolstered sentiment, helping the market look past profit misses from major names like Tesla and IBM. Investors are now turning their full attention to this morning’s delayed September CPI report, a critical data point that will influence the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory.

U.S. Size & Style

Mid-caps led the charge in yesterday’s session, with Mid Growth (IJK) gaining 1.74% and Mid Cap (IJH) rising 1.36%. Growth outperformed value across all market caps, though gains were seen across the board. Large Value (IVE) saw the most modest gains, closing up 0.37%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) +0.37% 1.34% 1.81% 4.74% 10.74% 7.15%
Large Cap (IVV) +0.57% 1.09% 1.27% 6.23% 15.72% 17.71%
Large Growth (IVW) +0.81% 0.87% 0.86% 7.54% 20.03% 26.51%
Mid Value (IJJ) +1.09% 1.68% 0.29% 1.55% 5.60% 6.74%
Mid Cap (IJH) +1.36% 1.78% 0.14% 2.22% 6.28% 6.63%
Mid Growth (IJK) +1.74% 2.05% -0.05% 3.00% 6.71% 6.37%
Small Value (IJS) +1.24% 2.78% 1.38% 7.11% 4.66% 7.75%
Small Cap (IJR) +0.99% 2.13% 0.64% 5.60% 5.32% 6.84%
Small Growth (IJT) +0.85% 1.64% 0.05% 4.31% 6.09% 5.77%

U.S. Sectors & Industries

The energy sector was the clear winner, as Energy (XLE) jumped 1.33% on the back of surging crude oil prices. Within the sector, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES) and Exploration & Production (XOP) were standout performers, gaining 5.91% and 3.81% respectively. Technology (XLK) also had a strong showing, up 1.26%. Defensive sectors lagged, with Consumer Staples (XLP) finishing at the bottom, down -0.49%.

Sector (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Energy (XLE) +1.33% 3.48% -0.24% 3.36% 6.44% 2.37%
Technology (XLK) +1.26% 1.43% 3.17% 11.21% 24.91% 27.35%
Industrials (XLI) +1.25% 2.01% 1.14% 1.10% 18.67% 14.95%
Materials (XLB) +1.20% 1.71% -0.78% -2.64% 7.77% -4.78%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +0.45% 1.69% 0.19% 5.40% 6.94% 23.87%
Financial (XLF) +0.21% 0.69% -2.27% -0.73% 9.83% 13.15%
Health Care (XLV) +0.05% 1.93% 6.65% 7.66% 7.56% -1.17%
Utilities (XLU) -0.08% -1.35% 5.48% 7.73% 21.82% 13.21%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.09% 1.09% 1.19% -0.06% 6.90% -0.85%
Communication Services (XLC) -0.34% 0.27% -2.67% 6.64% 20.10% 29.08%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.49% -0.48% 1.28% -2.14% 2.87% -0.45%

Global Thematic

Thematic investing saw a strong risk-on bias, led by high-growth and speculative areas. Cannabis funds soared, with AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) gaining 5.63%. Crypto and blockchain-related funds also rallied, including CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) up 5.26%. On the downside, Uranium Miners were the notable laggards, with Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (URNJ) falling -2.63%.

Developed Markets ex-U.S.

Developed international markets posted broad gains, with the Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) benchmark up 0.47%. Netherlands (EWN) was the top performer, rising 1.29%, followed by Hong Kong (EWH) at 0.90%. Japan (EWJ) and Switzerland (EWL) lagged the group, both closing up just 0.05%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) +0.47% 0.40% 1.90% 3.66% 27.67% 22.77%
Australia (EWA) +0.44% 1.00% 1.19% 1.38% 15.69% 8.62%
Canada (EWC) +0.76% 0.60% 0.10% 7.23% 26.35% 24.28%
France (EWQ) +0.80% 0.09% 3.14% 1.96% 29.02% 21.93%
Germany (EWG) +0.27% 0.41% 0.68% -3.84% 32.73% 29.76%
Hong Kong (EWH) +0.90% 0.14% 0.19% 1.97% 30.09% 24.05%
Japan (EWJ) +0.05% 0.27% 1.39% 7.49% 23.52% 26.27%
Netherlands (EWN) +1.29% 0.38% 2.17% 8.52% 34.09% 27.00%
South Korea (EWY) +0.69% 1.75% 10.58% 21.96% 76.99% 50.69%
Switzerland (EWL) +0.05% -1.06% 3.49% 1.73% 26.76% 15.20%
U.K. (EWU) +0.45% 1.26% 2.72% 4.16% 28.24% 22.54%

Emerging Markets

Emerging markets outperformed developed ones, with the Emerging (EEM) index up 0.88%. The rally was led by strong gains in Indonesia (EIDO), South Africa (EZA), and China (MCHI), which rose 2.29%, 2.12%, and 1.71%, respectively. India (INDA) was the notable outlier, posting a loss of -0.96%.

Country (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Emerging (EEM) +0.88% 1.03% 2.70% 9.63% 32.15% 24.25%
Brazil (EWZ) +1.47% 2.56% -2.71% 10.88% 37.83% 15.80%
China (MCHI) +1.71% 1.26% 0.71% 8.20% 38.14% 31.67%
India (INDA) -0.96% 0.57% 3.20% 0.05% 4.03% -0.54%
Indonesia (EIDO) +2.29% 5.78% 3.04% 2.75% 1.69% -14.18%
Malaysia (EWM) +0.71% -0.19% -0.35% 5.95% 6.79% 4.90%
Mexico (EWW) +0.78% -0.17% -2.09% 9.18% 43.56% 30.08%
South Africa (EZA) +2.12% -0.73% 3.28% 15.39% 56.75% 39.94%
Taiwan (EWT) +1.05% 0.95% 2.21% 9.88% 26.95% 22.05%
Thailand (THD) +0.42% 1.96% -0.10% 4.89% 1.34% -6.97%

Fixed Income

Fixed income markets were mixed as investors awaited today’s inflation data. Riskier assets performed well, with Convertible (CWB) up 0.89% and Taxable High Yield (HYG) rising 0.22%. Longer-duration Treasuries sold off, with Government Long (SPTL) falling -0.61%.

Category (Ticker) 1 Day WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Taxable Core (AGG) -0.18% 0.08% 1.03% 3.75% 7.37% 6.54%
Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.17% 0.06% 0.96% 3.56% 7.39% 6.77%
Taxable Multisector (PYLD) 0.00% 0.34% 0.82% 3.63% 8.52% 9.30%
Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) +0.01% 0.05% 0.32% 1.03% 3.40% 4.31%
Taxable Short-Term (BSV) -0.09% -0.04% 0.50% 1.90% 5.35% 5.63%
Taxable Long Term (BLV) -0.41% 0.38% 2.20% 6.90% 9.24% 6.15%
Government Short (SPTS) -0.07% 0.00% 0.46% 1.66% 4.35% 5.04%
Government Intermediate (SPTI) -0.24% -0.03% 0.66% 2.79% 7.26% 6.37%
Government Long (SPTL) -0.61% 0.26% 2.42% 6.91% 8.27% 4.48%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.20% 0.27% 0.64% 2.94% 7.78% 6.32%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.09% 0.06% 0.54% 2.68% 7.33% 7.27%
Taxable High Yield (HYG) +0.22% 0.17% -0.02% 1.86% 7.34% 8.28%
Bank Loans (BKLN) +0.05% 0.39% 0.05% 1.15% 4.79% 6.40%
Preferred Stock (PFF) +0.16% 0.32% -1.13% 2.89% 5.32% 2.05%
Convertible (CWB) +0.89% -0.45% 1.54% 7.77% 19.25% 21.40%
Mortgage Backed (MBS) -0.21% -0.03% 0.92% 4.21% 7.93% 7.25%
International USD (BNDX) -0.12% 0.10% 1.17% 1.94% 3.59% 4.27%
International (IGOV) -0.26% -0.28% -0.49% -0.44% 10.65% 7.01%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.07% 0.28% 0.89% 5.20% 12.16% 11.71%
Emerging (EMLC) +0.12% -0.08% -0.05% 2.17% 15.53% 12.22%
Municipal Short (SUB) -0.01% -0.24% -0.34% 0.61% 2.79% 3.34%
Municipal Intermediate (MUB) -0.07% 0.10% 1.31% 4.69% 3.36% 4.06%
Municipal Long (MLN) -0.08% -0.06% 1.70% 7.93% 1.92% 3.27%
Municipal High Yield (HYD) -0.06% 0.25% 1.13% 5.67% 1.84% 2.82%

Commodities

As mentioned, energy commodities led the complex higher due to new sanctions on Russia. WTI Crude Oil (USO) surged 1.43%, with Brent Crude Oil (BNO) not far behind at 0.74%. Precious metals also caught a bid, with Gold (GLD) rising 0.51%. Agriculture was mixed, with Soybeans (SOYB) falling -0.12% while Corn (CORN) gained 0.40%.

Commodity (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) +0.75% 1.73% -2.06% -6.32% -15.30% -24.95%
Energy (DBE) +1.42% 1.04% 1.48% -2.14% -14.73% -20.66%
WTI Crude Oil (USO) +1.43% 0.80% 2.00% 2.63% 3.63% 2.68%
Brent Crude Oil (BNO) +0.74% -0.15% 0.74% -0.45% -5.86% -2.16%
Natural Gas (UNG) +1.91% 1.42% 1.91% 0.41% 1.24% 11.21%
Gasoline (UGA) +2.67% 5.00% 2.67% 9.75% 24.84% 15.39%
Precious Metals (DBP) -0.66% 8.93% -0.66% 7.23% 14.11% 9.15%
Gold (GLD) +0.51% 6.67% 1.29% 17.85% 57.73% 35.08%
Silver (SLV) +2.15% 7.81% -5.98% 9.91% 78.33% 58.34%
Platinum (PPLT) -1.00% 6.02% -2.62% 10.56% 67.79% 43.86%
Palladium (PALL) +3.23% 2.03% -2.50% 9.33% 56.44% 50.99%
Industrial Metals (DBB) +3.77% 0.44% 5.00% 9.44% 55.57% 48.45%
Copper (CPER) +2.61% 0.44% 8.93% -0.92% 2.43% 4.15%
Agriculture (DBA) +1.19% 1.73% 4.61% 4.12% -23.08% -6.44%
Corn (CORN) +0.40% 1.04% -2.65% -5.69% -0.73% -0.07%
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.12% 0.80% -2.35% -1.62% -2.99% -0.35%
Wheat (WEAT) +0.68% -0.44% -0.33% -2.64% 2.84% 5.28%
Sugar (CANE) +0.51% -0.12% 4.75% 4.66% 14.05% 13.74%

Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrencies participated in the risk-on rally, with all major assets posting gains. Bitcoin (IBIT) led the way, climbing 4.86%. Ethereum (ETHA) also showed strength, rising 2.67%, while Solana (SOLZ) gained 2.21%.

Asset (Ticker) 1-Day % Change WTD 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) +2.21% 3.46% -1.34% -7.03% 17.93% 65.46%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) +2.28% 1.50% -7.07% -6.33% 15.42% 53.39%
Ethereum (ETHA) +2.67% 0.86% -3.73% -4.78% 17.93% 65.46%
Bitcoin (IBIT) +4.86% 6.14% -12.15% -4.78% 15.42% 53.39%

What to Watch Today

All eyes are on the delayed September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release this morning. This is the first major inflation data point investors will receive since the recent government shutdown. Consensus forecasts call for a slight acceleration in year-over-year headline inflation to 3.1%, with core inflation expected to remain unchanged at 3.1%. A significant deviation from these estimates could heavily influence market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, as officials have been looking for clear signs of disinflation before committing to further rate cuts. Also on the docket are the S&P Global preliminary “flash” PMI readings for Manufacturing and Services in October, which will provide an early look at economic activity this month.

For a deeper dive into the data, access today’s full Daily ETF Data Pack.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.