Macro Overview
U.S. equity markets reopened from the holiday weekend with a measured, mixed performance as the S&P 500 (IVV) edged up 0.16%, while tech-heavy growth segments faced lingering pressure from AI disruption narratives. International developed markets (EFA) remained essentially flat, though specific regions like South Korea (EWY) saw a significant 2.46% decline on the day. Fixed income markets showed modest strength in long-duration Treasuries (SPTL) as yields softened, while the commodity complex (DJP) dropped 1.55%, weighed down by a sharp reversal in precious metals. A notable outlier was the silver market (SLV), which plunged 4.80% as investors unwound risk premiums amid geopolitical developments.
U.S. Size & Style
Growth segments led the daily advance as the market attempted to recover from recent software-driven volatility, with Mid Cap Growth (IJK) rising 0.43% and Large Growth (IVW) gaining 0.33%. Despite the daily bounce, Large Growth remains significantly oversold with an RSI of 40.02 and sits 5.45% below its 52-week high. Conversely, value-oriented segments like Small Value (IJS) lagged the broader market with a 0.22% decline, though it maintains the strongest breadth in the category with 66.01% of constituents trading above their 50-day SMA.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Growth (IJK) | 0.43% | 1.31% | 13.13% | 8.15% | 13.14% |
| Large Growth (IVW) | 0.33% | -3.66% | -0.45% | -3.13% | 12.48% |
| Mid Cap (IJH) | 0.18% | 1.87% | 13.83% | 8.14% | 13.27% |
| Large Cap (IVV) | 0.16% | -1.27% | 2.88% | 0.13% | 13.38% |
| Small Growth (IJT) | 0.00% | 1.15% | 13.71% | 8.03% | 10.46% |
| Large Value (IVE) | -0.05% | 1.35% | 6.68% | 3.83% | 13.92% |
| Mid Value (IJJ) | -0.08% | 2.37% | 14.46% | 7.98% | 13.22% |
| Small Cap (IJR) | -0.11% | 1.70% | 14.98% | 8.85% | 13.42% |
| Small Value (IJS) | -0.22% | 2.21% | 16.30% | 9.58% | 16.40% |
U.S. Sectors & Industries
Cyclical and defensive sectors showed strength today, led by Financials (XLF) up 1.06% and Real Estate (XLRE) gaining 1.01%. Utilities (XLU) and Industrials (XLI) continue to exhibit extreme technical overextension, with RSIs reaching overbought levels of 76.40 and 70.83, respectively. Consumer Staples (XLP) was the primary laggard, falling 1.46% on the day, although the sector still maintains 91.67% of its constituents above their 50-day moving averages.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial (XLF) | 1.06% | -4.11% | 1.81% | -4.69% | 2.16% |
| Real Estate (XLRE) | 1.01% | 4.10% | 9.19% | 8.90% | 8.03% |
| Industrials (XLI) | 0.52% | 4.90% | 16.71% | 12.87% | 29.01% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | 0.16% | -1.27% | 2.88% | 0.14% | 13.31% |
| Technology (XLK) | -0.06% | -4.22% | -1.50% | -3.12% | 16.96% |
| Consumer Discretionary (XLY) | -0.12% | -5.12% | 1.67% | -2.82% | 3.11% |
| Communication Services (XLC) | -0.16% | -0.67% | 3.23% | -2.82% | 9.94% |
| Health Care (XLV) | -0.19% | 1.05% | 4.18% | 1.66% | 10.59% |
| Utilities (XLU) | -0.26% | 6.89% | 4.35% | 8.64% | 20.60% |
| Energy (XLE) | -1.10% | 12.71% | 20.00% | 20.22% | 23.34% |
| Materials (XLB) | -1.14% | 8.26% | 23.98% | 16.21% | 19.62% |
| Consumer Staples (XLP) | -1.46% | 7.42% | 15.81% | 13.54% | 12.40% |
Global Thematic
Clean energy and biotechnology themes reclaimed momentum today, with the Solar ETF (TAN) surging 3.37% and the Genomics & Immunology (ARKG) up 2.01%. In contrast, the mining thematic faced a severe broad-based sell-off following the unwinding of precious metals premiums. Silver Miners (SIL) fell 4.03%, while Gold Miners (GDX) dropped 3.55%, reflecting sensitivity to the cooling risk environment in physical metals.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day % Change |
|---|---|
| 1-Day Performance Leaders | |
| REX Drone ETF (DRNZ) | 4.22% |
| Solar (TAN) | 3.37% |
| Clean Energy (FRNW) | 2.48% |
| Disruptive Medicine (FMED) | 2.42% |
| Wind (FAN) | 2.25% |
| 1-Day Performance Laggards | |
| Silver Miners (SIL) | -4.03% |
| Gold Miners (GDX) | -3.55% |
| Crypto Miners (WGMI) | -3.24% |
| Cloud Computing (SKYY) | -1.92% |
| Cybersecurity (HACK) | -1.76% |
Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets
Divergent performances dominated the international landscape today as Switzerland (EWL) and Hong Kong (EWH) led Developed gains, rising 1.02% and 1.21% respectively. However, significant selling pressure hit the Japanese (EWJ) and South Korean (EWY) markets, which declined over 2% each following disappointing regional economic data. In Emerging Markets, Thailand (THD) surged 1.04% to an extremely overbought RSI of 79.65, while Brazil (EWZ) and South Africa (EZA) faced notable declines near 1%.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Developed ex-U.S. | |||||
| Hong Kong (EWH) | 1.21% | 3.95% | 8.18% | 10.26% | 45.50% |
| Switzerland (EWL) | 1.02% | 6.49% | 13.43% | 7.47% | 27.73% |
| Netherlands (EWN) | 0.94% | 0.52% | 12.65% | 9.12% | 33.79% |
| France (EWQ) | 0.75% | 3.89% | 6.99% | 4.58% | 20.02% |
| Australia (EWA) | 0.55% | 9.65% | 16.32% | 11.95% | 18.88% |
| U.K. (EWU) | 0.36% | 4.96% | 13.90% | 7.82% | 34.96% |
| Germany (EWG) | 0.16% | 1.62% | 10.07% | 3.62% | 22.92% |
| Dev ex-U.S. (EFA) | -0.02% | 4.71% | 12.87% | 8.53% | 31.76% |
| Canada (EWC) | -0.55% | 1.32% | 11.96% | 3.58% | 34.54% |
| Japan (EWJ) | -2.11% | 7.48% | 15.62% | 13.79% | 38.56% |
| South Korea (EWY) | -2.46% | 16.45% | 43.68% | 34.42% | 135.80% |
| Emerging Markets | |||||
| Thailand (THD) | 1.04% | 16.84% | 22.48% | 19.04% | 30.45% |
| India (INDA) | 0.72% | 0.79% | -2.53% | -1.44% | 7.42% |
| China (MCHI) | 0.43% | -3.06% | -2.27% | 0.90% | 15.89% |
| Indonesia (EIDO) | 0.28% | -6.90% | -2.11% | -4.71% | 4.57% |
| Taiwan (EWT) | -0.22% | 8.24% | 20.72% | 14.73% | 44.55% |
| Malaysia (EWM) | -0.24% | 5.25% | 14.83% | 8.37% | 25.91% |
| Mexico (EWW) | -0.33% | 9.14% | 24.99% | 16.49% | 59.14% |
| Emerging (EEM) | -0.41% | 5.18% | 13.69% | 11.26% | 40.37% |
| South Africa (EZA) | -0.81% | 2.65% | 19.18% | 8.59% | 72.57% |
| Brazil (EWZ) | -0.84% | 13.78% | 19.27% | 18.79% | 50.96% |
Fixed Income
In the fixed income space, we observed a constructive move toward duration and higher credit quality as yields pulled back. Long-term Treasuries (SPTL) and International USD bonds (BNDX) each rose 0.22% and 0.18% respectively, signaling a pivot toward quality. Credit markets remained mostly resilient, though High Yield (HYG) and short-term Treasuries (SPTS) faced minor headwind, declining 0.05% and 0.10% on the day.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multisector | |||||
| Taxable Long Term (BLV) | 0.18% | 2.18% | 2.44% | 2.83% | 7.12% |
| Taxable Core (AGG) | 0.01% | 1.28% | 1.98% | 1.45% | 7.50% |
| Taxable Core Enhanced (IUSB) | 0.00% | 1.22% | 1.98% | 1.41% | 7.62% |
| Taxable Short-Term (BSV) | -0.04% | 0.76% | 1.38% | 0.67% | 6.06% |
| Government | |||||
| Government Long (SPTL) | 0.22% | 2.62% | 2.16% | 3.12% | 6.16% |
| Taxable Ultrashort (BIL) | 0.01% | 0.28% | 0.92% | 0.45% | 4.08% |
| Government Intermediate (SPTI) | -0.03% | 1.30% | 1.48% | 1.06% | 7.61% |
| Government Short (SPTS) | -0.10% | 0.52% | 1.16% | 0.49% | 5.15% |
| Inflation Protected (TIP) | -0.14% | 1.10% | 1.02% | 1.20% | 6.00% |
| Specialty | |||||
| Preferred Stock (PFF) | 0.44% | 0.72% | 5.29% | 3.39% | 6.60% |
| Convertible (CWB) | 0.29% | 1.04% | 8.05% | 6.35% | 18.64% |
| Corporate (SPIB) | 0.03% | 1.01% | 1.99% | 1.07% | 7.92% |
| Bank Loans (BKLN) | 0.05% | -1.44% | 0.13% | -1.16% | 5.02% |
| Taxable High Yield (HYG) | -0.05% | 0.15% | 2.35% | 0.72% | 7.37% |
| Mortgage Backed (MBS) | -0.22% | 1.16% | 2.49% | 1.53% | 8.75% |
| International & EM | |||||
| Emerging USD (EMB) | 0.21% | 1.90% | 2.94% | 1.83% | 12.90% |
| International USD (BNDX) | 0.18% | 0.98% | 1.21% | 1.44% | 3.85% |
| Emerging (EMLC) | 0.15% | 2.75% | 5.32% | 3.18% | 18.13% |
| International (IGOV) | 0.07% | 3.52% | 3.66% | 3.14% | 11.09% |
| Municipals | |||||
| Municipal High Yield (HYD) | 0.18% | 0.25% | 2.21% | 0.78% | 3.22% |
| Municipal Long (MLN) | 0.08% | 1.04% | 1.31% | 1.13% | 3.06% |
| Municipal Intermediate (MUB) | 0.06% | 0.93% | 1.97% | 1.40% | 4.82% |
| Municipal Short (SUB) | 0.02% | 0.45% | 1.48% | 0.88% | 3.98% |
Commodities
The broad commodity composite (DJP) experienced a 1.55% daily decline, driven primarily by a 3.28% plunge in precious metals (DBP) as safe-haven premiums eroded. Industrial metals (DBB) also faced headwinds, falling 1.78%, while the energy sector (DBE) showed relative resilience despite a 4.34% drop in Natural Gas (UNG). Agriculture (DBA) remained the most stable component, down just 0.31% as Soybeans (SOYB) provided a neutral anchor.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Commodities (DJP) | -1.55% | 2.32% | 8.21% | 6.57% | 14.81% |
| Agriculture | |||||
| Agriculture (DBA) | -0.31% | 0.43% | 0.76% | 0.74% | -5.46% |
| Soybeans (SOYB) | 0.04% | 6.69% | -1.47% | 7.27% | 5.96% |
| Sugar (CANE) | -0.11% | -6.82% | -5.20% | -7.53% | -26.31% |
| Wheat (WEAT) | -1.00% | 2.01% | -3.95% | 4.01% | -21.62% |
| Corn (CORN) | -1.13% | 1.60% | -3.15% | -1.58% | -14.12% |
| Energy | |||||
| Gasoline (UGA) | 0.47% | 5.77% | -1.08% | 10.21% | 5.18% |
| Brent Crude Oil (BNO) | -0.34% | 6.50% | 8.35% | 12.22% | 3.72% |
| WTI Crude Oil (USO) | -0.64% | 5.69% | 6.21% | 9.50% | -0.12% |
| Energy (DBE) | -0.65% | 5.65% | 1.73% | 8.70% | 1.99% |
| Natural Gas (UNG) | -4.34% | 15.20% | -15.72% | -2.94% | -39.44% |
| Industrial Metals | |||||
| Copper (CPER) | -1.74% | -2.78% | 13.04% | -0.06% | 19.37% |
| Industrial Metals (DBB) | -1.78% | -2.53% | 11.52% | 0.96% | 23.77% |
| Precious Metals | |||||
| Palladium (PALL) | 0.04% | -5.87% | 21.55% | 5.61% | 71.58% |
| Platinum (PPLT) | -2.17% | -12.59% | 31.11% | -1.88% | 104.14% |
| Gold (GLD) | -3.12% | 6.39% | 20.60% | 13.09% | 68.31% |
| Precious Metals (DBP) | -3.28% | -0.19% | 24.42% | 10.08% | 74.65% |
| Silver (SLV) | -4.80% | -18.08% | 45.96% | 3.03% | 126.44% |
Cryptocurrency
The digital asset market faced broad selling pressure today, with Ethereum (ETHA) leadings the decline among major coins, falling 2.53%. Multi-coin composites (NCIQ) and Bitcoin (IBIT) also declined over 1% on the day, extending their significant 1-month corrections. In a notable divergence, XRP and Solana (SOLZ) showed relative strength, with XRP surging 4.86% as a definitive winner in a largely red session.
| Name (Ticker) | 1-Day | 1 Month | 3 Month | YTD | 1 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum (ETHA) | -2.53% | -39.51% | -33.73% | -32.90% | -27.22% |
| Bitcoin (IBIT) | -1.49% | -29.22% | -26.31% | -22.68% | -30.62% |
| Multi-Coin (NCIQ) | -1.14% | -30.83% | -28.09% | -23.98% | -31.74% |
| Solana (SOLZ) | 0.12% | -41.66% | -35.42% | -31.95% | — |
| XRP | 4.86% | -28.77% | — | -19.05% | — |
What to Watch Today
As markets move into the holiday-shortened week, the immediate focus remains on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes scheduled for release tomorrow, which will be scrutinized for a pivot toward potentially sooner-than-expected rate cuts. Friday’s upcoming “data deluge”—featuring the simultaneous release of PCE inflation and Q4 GDP following the recent government shutdown backlog—is being billed as a critical “reality check” for the soft-landing narrative. Traders are also closely monitoring second-round nuclear negotiations in Geneva, as any geopolitical de-escalation could further unwind the risk premiums recently seen in commodities and precious metals.
