As we approach the end of summer 2025, a quick glance at the retail sector reveals a market that is anything but monolithic. The Year-to-Date performance of the companies within the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) paints a vivid picture of a split consumer, one who is increasingly value-conscious and necessity-driven, while simultaneously pulling back from high-ticket discretionary purchases.
This performance tree map shows clear bifurcation. Let’s break down the key themes.
Source: ETF Action Portfolio Visualizer
Group 1: The Reign of Value and Necessity
The brightest green spots on the map are overwhelmingly concentrated in two areas: discount retail and auto parts.
- Discount & Grocery Powerhouses: Consumers are clearly flocking to value. Dollar General (DG) is a standout performer, soaring an impressive +51.34% YTD. It is joined by Dollar Tree (DLTR) at +32.24%, Kroger (KR) at +18.52%, and Walmart (WMT) at +9.24%. This trend suggests that amid economic uncertainty, households are prioritizing essentials and seeking the most competitive prices for their everyday needs.
- The “Do-It-For-Me” Economy Stalls, The “Do-It-Yourself” Thrives: The auto parts retailers are another bastion of strength. With consumers holding onto their existing vehicles longer to avoid new car payments, the DIY repair trend is booming. AutoZone (AZO) is up +28.51% and O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) has gained +20.13%. This resilience underscores a frugal mindset where maintenance trumps replacement. 🛠️
Group 2: The Discretionary Squeeze
In stark contrast, the deepest reds are found in categories that rely on confident consumer discretionary spending, particularly for big-ticket items.
- The Used Car Cliff: The used vehicle market, a pandemic-era darling, is facing a severe correction. Carvana (CVNA) has plummeted -50.72%, with competitors like CarMax (KMX) also down significantly at -29.20%. This indicates a sharp pullback on major purchases.
- Specialty & High-End Struggles: The pain is also evident in non-essential specialty goods. Luxury consignment platform The RealReal (REAL) is down -30.28%, and apparel brands like Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) have fallen -37.65%. Department store stalwart Macy’s (M) continues to struggle, posting a -21.24% loss.
Group 3: The Nuanced Middle Ground
Between these two extremes lies a mixed bag of specialty apparel, e-commerce, and electronics, where individual execution seems to matter more than the broader trend.
- E-commerce is Not a Monolith: While Amazon (AMZN) is nearly flat at +1.17%, other platforms focused on specific niches or value are outperforming. eBay (EBAY) has surged +40.92%, and Etsy (ETSY) is up a healthy +18.96%, suggesting consumers are hunting for deals and unique goods online. The standout outlier is Groupon (GRPN), whose +123.37% gain likely points to company-specific turnaround efforts more than a sector-wide trend.
- Apparel Winners and Losers: While some apparel names are struggling, others are thriving. Urban Outfitters (URBN) at +34.64% and The Buckle (BKE) at +26.12% show that strong brand identity can still capture consumer dollars.
The Power of Visualization
The key takeaway from the XRT components is clear: we are in a “barbell” retail environment. Necessity and deep value are winning, while expensive, discretionary items are being left on the shelf. Because XRT is an equal-weighted ETF, the performance of a smaller company like Dollar General has as much impact on the fund as a behemoth like Amazon, making these underlying trends exceptionally clear.
Gaining this kind of immediate, in-depth insight is precisely the power of ETF Action’s portfolio visualizer. Instead of just tracking an ETF’s price, this tool allows you to instantly decompose its performance and understand the why behind the what. The intuitive treemap interface lets you evaluate vast datasets, identify the true leaders and laggards at a glance, and grasp the thematic currents driving any ETF’s return. For any analyst or investor looking to move beyond surface-level data, tools like this are indispensable for making informed decisions.
Disclosures
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.
This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.
