Tech Rotation Sinks Growth as Oil Plunges on Ceasefire Hopes

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities broadly weakened on Monday as the S&P 500 (IVV) fell 0.50%, pressured by a sharp 2.95% decline in Technology that dragged the broader large-cap complex lower ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections. Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) outperformed with a 0.32% gain, while Emerging Markets (EEM) edged up 0.11%, both holding up better than domestic shares despite steeper monthly losses. Fixed income was broadly firm, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) adding 0.15% as capital rotated toward defensive assets. The standout outlier was Broad Commodities (DJP), which dropped 2.77% on the session as crude oil prices collapsed roughly 7% on reports of potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, even as the complex remains up 32.57% year-to-date.

U.S. Size & Style

Value and mid/small-cap segments led U.S. equities on Monday, with Mid Value (IJJ) up 1.22% and Small Value (IJS) rising 1.12%, while Large Growth (IJW) declined 1.05% as investors rotated away from mega-cap technology exposure. Large Cap (IVV) fell 0.50% with an RSI of 38, while Large Growth (IVW) sits at an RSI of 32, reflecting the growth-led weakness without yet signaling oversold extremes. By contrast, Large Value (IVE) carries an RSI of 64 and leads year-to-date performance among large caps at 14.39%. Breadth favored smaller companies broadly, with roughly 61-66% of constituents in Mid and Small Value trading above their 50-day moving averages, consistent with the day’s rotation into cyclically oriented, value-tilted names.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)0.11%4.43%3.90%14.39%16.74%
Large Cap (IVV)-0.50%-2.29%0.96%11.19%11.53%
Large Growth (IVW)-1.05%-7.55%-1.53%8.23%7.02%
Mid Value (IJJ)1.22%4.79%0.00%13.12%17.17%
Mid Cap (IJH)0.80%0.72%-1.49%12.89%15.32%
Mid Growth (IJK)0.32%-3.14%-3.04%12.22%13.37%
Small Value (IJS)1.12%2.98%-0.82%19.26%23.65%
Small Cap (IJR)0.85%2.14%-2.38%18.69%21.66%
Small Growth (IJT)0.56%1.11%-4.10%17.69%19.32%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Sector breadth was positive, with eight of eleven S&P sectors advancing even as the index itself declined, led by Consumer Discretionary (XLY) up 2.41% and Financials (XLF) gaining 1.86%. Materials (XLB) rose 1.76% and now carries an RSI of 76, pushing into overbought territory alongside a 75% reading of constituents above their 50-day average. Technology (XLK) was the session’s weakest sector, falling 2.95% with an RSI of 32 and only 36% of members above their 50-day moving average, reflecting the ongoing rotation out of growth names. Energy (XLE) dropped 3.96% as crude prices plunged on ceasefire prospects, though the sector remains up 53.39% year-to-date. Communication Services (XLC) posted a modest 0.36% gain but carries the most oversold reading in the group at an RSI of 24, with just 27% of constituents above their 50-day average.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)-0.48%-2.28%0.93%11.15%11.46%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)2.41%7.38%2.00%-0.44%-0.70%
Financials (XLF)1.86%7.61%1.44%6.37%11.63%
Materials (XLB)1.76%9.84%6.91%19.86%27.54%
Consumer Staples (XLP)1.58%12.79%7.50%19.19%22.35%
Industrials (XLI)1.38%-0.14%-5.38%10.27%10.69%
Real Estate (XLRE)1.09%6.93%-2.37%10.73%10.43%
Utilities (XLU)0.55%9.64%-0.81%4.42%0.81%
Communication Services (XLC)0.36%-9.12%-7.08%-14.06%-11.60%
Health Care (XLV)-0.15%11.08%14.00%20.72%30.10%
Technology (XLK)-2.95%-12.81%-0.53%21.44%16.47%
Energy (XLE)-3.96%7.05%13.62%53.39%56.95%

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Global Thematic

Thematic funds tied to housing and alternative consumer categories led gains Monday, with the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) up 6.60% and the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) rising 4.56%, consistent with the broader rotation into rate-sensitive and consumer-facing names. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) advanced 4.65%, benefiting from the pullback in energy and commodity prices. On the downside, photonics and AI-infrastructure-adjacent funds were sharply lower, with the Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE) falling 9.15% and the Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD) down 7.94%, pressure that aligns with the day’s reported Marvell-Lumentum deal reaction and broader AI capex concerns tied to large-scale debt issuance from hyperscalers. The breadth between leaders and laggards underscores a clear rotation away from AI infrastructure and photonics exposure toward defensive and domestically oriented themes.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS)6.60%
Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS)6.27%
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN)4.65%
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB)4.56%
Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ)3.66%
Laggards
Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF (LYTE)-9.15%
Tuttle Capital Pure Play Photonics ETF (FOTO)-8.08%
Roundhill Neocloud ETF (NCLD)-7.94%
Spear Alpha ETF (SPRX)-7.29%
CoinShares Bitcoin Mining and Digital Power ETF (WGMI)-6.97%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Developed markets outside the U.S. were mixed but modestly positive in aggregate, with France (EWQ) gaining 1.18% and Switzerland (EWL) up 1.01%, while Australia (EWA) slipped 0.37%. Emerging markets showed wider dispersion, as Mexico (EWW) rose 1.89% and South Africa (EZA) gained 1.86%, both likely benefiting from the drop in oil import costs and broader risk-on tone following ceasefire headlines. China (MCHI) advanced 1.06% despite remaining down 16.90% year-to-date, while South Korea (EWY) fell 0.83% on the day even as it retains a standout 55.96% year-to-date gain. Taiwan (EWT) declined 0.45% but continues to lead emerging markets with a 58.44% year-to-date advance, reflecting continued strength in semiconductor-exposed markets despite near-term volatility.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)0.32%-0.25%-1.78%9.68%13.50%
Australia (EWA)-0.37%3.92%0.31%13.96%13.41%
Canada (EWC)0.35%3.59%2.42%13.32%21.53%
France (EWQ)1.18%1.21%-8.18%-2.74%-0.68%
Germany (EWG)0.67%2.08%-1.61%1.17%5.57%
Hong Kong (EWH)0.13%4.54%-2.30%7.82%9.81%
Japan (EWJ)-0.08%-6.15%0.49%15.60%16.08%
Netherlands (EWN)-0.22%-5.44%-3.94%13.64%14.44%
South Korea (EWY)-0.83%-20.98%-3.49%55.96%59.87%
Switzerland (EWL)1.01%9.78%2.94%10.36%19.53%
U.K. (EWU)0.42%4.01%-0.78%10.78%16.40%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)0.11%-9.69%-4.65%12.26%12.66%
Brazil (EWZ)-0.92%-15.79%-12.25%2.19%7.90%
China (MCHI)1.06%-3.22%-11.13%-16.90%-20.51%
India (INDA)1.53%4.15%-2.71%-10.36%-10.23%
Indonesia (EIDO)0.70%-14.13%-18.92%-45.40%-43.61%
Malaysia (EWM)0.37%-0.33%-3.95%0.61%8.17%
Mexico (EWW)1.89%6.74%-1.21%11.05%17.97%
South Africa (EZA)1.86%-0.41%-1.08%-6.60%6.31%
Taiwan (EWT)-0.45%-13.47%4.26%58.44%57.99%
Thailand (THD)-0.38%-4.78%-6.63%16.97%16.55%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income markets were broadly stable to modestly higher Monday as investors favored safer assets amid the equity rotation. The Core Aggregate Bond index (AGG) gained 0.15%, with Long-Term Treasuries (SPTL) up 0.22% and International Local currency debt (IGOV) rising 0.42%. Credit-sensitive segments lagged, with Convertible bonds (CWB) falling 1.62%, reflecting their equity-like sensitivity to the day’s tech-led selloff, while High Yield (HYG) slipped 0.18% and Preferred Stock (PFF) declined 0.12%. The modest outperformance of duration-sensitive Treasury products over credit instruments is consistent with a session marked by equity-market caution rather than acute rate volatility.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Core (AGG)0.15%2.39%0.15%-0.41%-0.08%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)0.05%2.23%-0.05%-0.34%0.08%
Long-Term (BLV)0.03%4.51%0.23%-2.58%-3.81%
Short-Term (BSV)-0.01%1.13%0.39%0.81%1.62%
Government
Long-Term (SPTL)0.22%5.45%0.99%-2.32%-3.96%
Intermediate (SPTI)0.06%2.23%0.02%-0.74%-0.21%
Ultrashort (BIL)0.02%0.32%0.94%3.04%3.68%
Short-Term (SPTS)0.02%0.82%0.64%1.40%2.22%
Inflation Protected (TIP)-0.12%2.35%-0.27%0.27%-0.13%
Specialty
Mortgage Backed (MBB)0.03%3.20%0.23%-0.11%0.62%
Corporate (SPIB)-0.02%1.50%-0.25%-0.07%0.83%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-0.12%-3.80%-5.27%-4.43%-3.93%
High Yield (HYG)-0.18%0.50%-1.31%0.21%1.45%
Bank Loans (BKLN)-0.24%0.08%1.64%2.31%3.89%
Convertible (CWB)-1.62%-8.68%-8.09%5.69%1.67%
International & EM
International Local (IGOV)0.42%1.46%-1.51%-3.05%-2.86%
Emerging Local (EMLC)0.41%0.21%-1.59%0.16%3.03%
International USD (BNDX)0.17%1.30%0.12%0.34%-0.36%
Emerging USD (EMB)0.15%2.27%-1.28%-0.39%0.43%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB)0.01%1.46%0.58%1.34%2.14%
Intermediate (MUB)0.00%3.19%-0.56%-0.35%0.10%
Long-Term (MLN)-0.13%4.36%-1.56%-0.57%-0.58%
High Yield (HYD)-0.25%3.25%-0.27%0.13%1.16%

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Commodities

Commodities broadly declined Monday as Broad Commodities (DJP) fell 2.77%, driven primarily by energy. WTI Crude (USO) dropped 7.08% and Brent Crude (BNO) fell 7.62% after reports of potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire discussions eased supply-risk premiums, though both remain up well over 100% year-to-date. Precious metals moved in the opposite direction, with Silver (SLV) gaining 2.17% and Gold (GLD) up 1.65%, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid the broader equity rotation. Industrial metals were also firmer, as Copper (CPER) rose 0.97%, while agricultural commodities were mixed, with Soybeans (SOYB) down 1.26%.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)-2.77%-3.28%5.23%32.57%36.42%
Agriculture
Wheat (WEAT)0.36%-9.98%-6.43%11.57%5.09%
Corn (CORN)0.12%-7.90%-1.64%-2.09%-2.44%
Broad (DBA)-0.33%-5.00%-2.58%5.02%5.28%
Soybeans (SOYB)-1.26%-5.18%2.58%18.07%11.54%
Sugar (CANE)-1.63%-3.05%19.13%17.48%23.23%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG)-0.88%-14.04%-10.54%-26.59%-32.08%
Broad (DBE)-6.30%2.88%22.41%118.95%107.52%
WTI Crude (USO)-7.08%6.45%21.44%126.82%116.19%
Brent Crude (BNO)-7.62%4.52%30.91%132.87%123.03%
Industrial Metals
Broad (DBB)0.97%0.72%-0.36%9.29%17.31%
Copper (CPER)0.97%-0.38%-0.48%12.61%24.87%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV)2.17%-16.75%-12.97%-29.26%3.54%
Broad (DBP)1.82%-7.21%-5.24%-14.35%-1.90%
Gold (GLD)1.65%-4.86%-2.66%-8.75%-1.76%
Platinum (PPLT)0.46%-15.29%-12.63%-29.89%-8.95%
Palladium (PALL)-1.80%-17.84%-24.84%-39.95%-33.70%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets were modestly lower across the board Monday, with no major catalysts reported in the verified session data. Solana (SOLZ) led declines at 3.22%, while Bitcoin (IBIT) was roughly flat, down just 0.02%. Ethereum (ETHA) was the lone gainer among the group, up 0.63% on the day. Year-to-date, the entire crypto complex remains in negative territory, with XRP (XRP) down 32.31% and Solana (SOLZ) off 27.88%, underscoring a difficult year for digital assets relative to broader equity and commodity markets.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Solana (SOLZ)-3.22%-22.89%24.37%-27.88%-53.00%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)-0.51%-9.36%21.70%-15.95%-34.48%
XRP (XRP)-0.14%-15.51%17.12%-32.31%—
Bitcoin (IBIT)-0.02%-9.18%21.63%-12.69%-30.42%
Ethereum (ETHA)0.63%-15.90%20.21%-24.60%-42.39%

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What to Watch Today

Tuesday’s session centers on the 2026 U.S. midterm congressional elections, with polls beginning to close at 7:00 PM ET in Florida, Georgia, and Virginia, and most remaining states closing by 8:00-9:00 PM ET; initial results are expected overnight into Wednesday. On the data front, investors will watch the 10:00 AM ET release of the JOLTS report for September and Factory Orders alongside revised Durable Goods Orders, followed by the LMI Logistics Managers Index at 11:00 AM ET and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 3:00 PM ET. Overseas, the Reserve Bank of Australia delivers its interest rate decision and policy statement, while the Eurozone releases flash October CPI data. Earnings are active as well, with Pfizer and Shopify reporting before the open and AMD, Arista Networks, Amgen, and Booking Holdings reporting after the close.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.