Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Energy Sector Surge Amid Broad Market Retreat

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Macro Overview

Global equities started the week on a cautious note as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East fueled a risk-off sentiment. The S&P 500 (IVV) fell 0.29%, with similar modest declines seen in Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) and Emerging Markets (EEM). The standout performer was the commodities complex, where the Broad Commodities index (DJP) rallied 1.36% on a surge in oil prices. Fixed income markets also edged lower, with the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) dipping 0.08% as investors processed hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve.

U.S. Size & Style

Declines were widespread across U.S. size and style segments, reflecting the defensive posture among investors. Smaller capitalization stocks bore the brunt of the selling pressure, with the Small Cap index (IJR) dropping 0.73% and Small Growth (IJT) falling 0.82%. Large-cap stocks showed relative resilience but still finished in negative territory, with Large Value (IVE) down 0.32%. No major style box registered an oversold or overbought reading on the Relative Strength Index.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) -0.32% 2.08% 4.19% 12.38% 17.94%
Large Cap (IVV) -0.29% 2.72% 1.67% 13.12% 20.30%
Large Growth (IVW) -0.30% 3.22% -0.45% 13.46% 21.98%
Mid Value (IJJ) -0.56% -0.89% 3.39% 12.12% 14.35%
Mid Cap (IJH) -0.54% 0.11% 1.26% 14.72% 17.15%
Mid Growth (IJK) -0.48% 1.14% -0.69% 17.05% 19.69%
Small Value (IJS) -0.66% 0.49% 4.96% 20.83% 26.61%
Small Cap (IJR) -0.73% -0.65% 4.54% 20.80% 24.04%
Small Growth (IJT) -0.82% -1.77% 4.02% 20.55% 21.33%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

A stark divergence defined sector performance, driven entirely by geopolitical developments. The Energy sector (XLE) was the unambiguous leader, climbing 2.04% as concerns over Middle East conflicts sent crude oil prices higher. Technology (XLK) was the only other sector to post a gain, rising 0.44%. The remaining nine sectors fell, with Communication Services (XLC), Utilities (XLU), and Industrials (XLI) each losing more than 1%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY) -0.30% 2.68% 1.66% 13.08% 20.23%
Energy (XLE) 2.04% 7.41% 14.43% 45.00% 45.89%
Technology (XLK) 0.44% 6.36% -2.25% 29.85% 42.86%
Health Care (XLV) -0.36% 4.92% 14.60% 11.10% 26.25%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -0.53% 0.43% -3.35% -1.97% 1.40%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.55% -0.08% 3.21% 10.78% 8.13%
Financials (XLF) -0.67% 1.35% 12.27% 6.27% 8.54%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.83% -2.13% 1.14% 11.00% 7.82%
Materials (XLB) -0.92% 4.48% 3.40% 17.13% 16.26%
Industrials (XLI) -1.13% -2.62% 1.40% 13.49% 16.68%
Utilities (XLU) -1.17% -4.78% -4.33% 0.24% 2.94%
Communication Services (XLC) -1.35% 2.97% -3.40% -4.77% 1.32%

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Global Thematic

Thematic performance reflected the day’s divergent risk appetite, with digital asset strategies showing notable strength. Blockchain-focused funds like the Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) and iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF (IBLC) led advancers with gains of 3.38% and 2.64%, respectively. On the other side of the ledger, consumer-facing and rate-sensitive themes lagged, including the ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) which fell 2.65%. Weakness was also apparent in leisure and home construction funds.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day
Leaders
Global X Blockchain ETF (BKCH) 3.38%
iShares Blockchain and Tech ETF (IBLC) 2.64%
VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP) 2.52%
Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ) 2.47%
Tema Memory ETF (DISK) 2.39%
Laggards
ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) -2.65%
AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (PSIL) -2.48%
Invesco Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ) -2.29%
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) -2.22%
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) -1.78%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International equity performance was mixed, largely influenced by exposure to the commodities rally. In developed markets, most European bourses retreated, with Germany (EWG) declining 0.81%, while Japan (EWJ) finished flat. Emerging markets saw a clear split between commodity producers and consumers, as Brazil (EWZ) gained 1.35% while China (MCHI) slid 0.92%. South Korea (EWY) was a notable outperformer, adding 0.37%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) -0.25% 1.77% 4.14% 13.65% 21.48%
Australia (EWA) 0.07% 2.32% 4.09% 16.25% 14.36%
Canada (EWC) -0.49% 3.43% 4.94% 14.44% 27.63%
France (EWQ) -0.74% -1.48% 2.13% 4.36% 10.80%
Germany (EWG) -0.81% 3.22% 3.87% 6.14% 7.71%
Hong Kong (EWH) -0.13% -0.74% 0.72% 9.54% 13.57%
Japan (EWJ) 0.01% 3.78% 3.69% 19.38% 27.80%
Netherlands (EWN) -0.28% 2.24% 2.89% 20.95% 35.14%
South Korea (EWY) 0.37% 15.12% -12.13% 86.03% 156.06%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.81% -0.57% 1.24% 6.59% 15.51%
U.K. (EWU) -0.37% -0.08% 4.55% 11.57% 20.65%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) -0.18% 4.57% -1.81% 23.12% 37.04%
Brazil (EWZ) 1.35% -1.69% 1.29% 14.49% 27.73%
China (MCHI) -0.92% -1.94% -0.04% -8.31% -9.06%
India (INDA) 0.28% -0.20% 2.35% -8.05% -4.39%
Indonesia (EIDO) 0.55% 2.91% 1.87% -30.71% -25.95%
Malaysia (EWM) 0.11% 1.10% 1.42% 5.90% 18.36%
Mexico (EWW) 0.31% -0.12% -0.75% 12.28% 28.12%
South Africa (EZA) -0.31% 10.81% 3.72% 4.64% 31.70%
Taiwan (EWT) 0.12% 11.89% 5.11% 70.05% 92.12%
Thailand (THD) 0.11% -0.92% 0.82% 24.12% 31.13%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income markets faced pressure as Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year note yield climbing to 4.75% following hawkish Fed commentary from the prior week. Consequently, longer-duration bond funds saw the largest price declines, with the Long-Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) falling 0.40%. The core U.S. Aggregate Bond index (AGG) posted a modest 0.08% loss. In a sign of contained credit concerns, High Yield (HYG) and Bank Loans (BKLN) managed to eke out small gains.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV) 0.01% 0.24% 0.20% 0.66% 2.12%
Core (AGG) -0.08% 0.39% -0.66% -0.18% 1.90%
Core Enhanced (IUSB) -0.09% 0.37% -0.54% 0.08% 2.18%
Long-Term (BLV) -0.29% 0.79% -2.49% -2.04% 0.70%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL) 0.01% 0.28% 0.89% 2.37% 3.71%
Short-Term (SPTS) 0.00% 0.25% 0.46% 1.01% 2.45%
Intermediate (SPTI) -0.11% 0.08% -0.54% -0.68% 0.66%
Inflation Protected (TIP) -0.11% -0.02% -1.16% 0.51% 0.86%
Long-Term (SPTL) -0.40% 0.81% -2.22% -2.49% 0.14%
Specialty
Bank Loans (BKLN) 0.24% 1.44% 2.09% 2.10% 4.81%
High Yield (HYG) 0.09% 0.90% 0.84% 2.45% 4.63%
Corporate (SPIB) -0.03% 0.23% -0.28% 0.41% 2.42%
Mortgage Backed (MBB) -0.08% 0.56% -0.72% 0.22% 2.97%
Convertible (CWB) -0.26% 0.54% -5.06% 15.61% 20.40%
Preferred Stock (PFF) -0.33% 0.37% -2.22% 1.25% 2.04%
International & EM
Emerging Local (EMLC) 0.16% 1.06% 1.59% 2.86% 7.45%
International Local (IGOV) 0.02% 0.49% -1.83% -1.08% -1.44%
International USD (BNDX) -0.11% -0.21% -0.91% 0.01% 0.83%
Emerging USD (EMB) -0.13% 0.55% -0.46% 1.46% 5.95%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB) -0.02% 0.34% 0.44% 1.10% 1.89%
Intermediate (MUB) -0.11% -0.24% -1.14% -0.03% 3.88%
High Yield (HYD) -0.18% -0.09% -1.65% 0.31% 5.48%
Long-Term (MLN) -0.29% -0.35% -0.98% 0.66% 6.35%

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Commodities

Energy markets were the primary focus, surging on heightened geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI Crude oil (USO) jumped 3.08% and Brent Crude (BNO) advanced 2.64%, lifting the broader energy complex. Precious metals had a mixed session, with Gold (GLD) down slightly while Silver (SLV) posted a small gain. Palladium (PALL) was a significant laggard, falling 3.92%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) 1.36% 8.38% 6.12% 36.53% 48.71%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE) 0.98% 17.67% 18.41% 16.04% 3.75%
Corn (CORN) 0.55% 13.65% 11.88% 13.14% 14.17%
Broad (DBA) 0.45% 6.58% 7.60% 14.89% 9.37%
Soybeans (SOYB) 0.15% 8.27% 8.31% 24.61% 21.66%
Wheat (WEAT) -0.68% 16.80% 18.95% 39.26% 29.95%
Energy
WTI Crude (USO) 3.08% 3.51% 3.57% 93.32% 78.65%
Brent Crude (BNO) 2.64% 4.88% 4.45% 86.58% 74.27%
Broad (DBE) 2.36% 5.63% 9.74% 88.95% 80.26%
Natural Gas (UNG) 2.03% 4.77% -11.65% -14.03% -17.85%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER) 0.83% 1.11% 2.93% 14.42% 42.20%
Broad (DBB) 0.51% 1.79% -1.39% 11.64% 33.46%
Precious Metals
Silver (SLV) 0.18% 14.84% -12.00% -6.66% 66.15%
Gold (GLD) -0.11% 9.93% -2.09% 3.06% 28.41%
Broad (DBP) -0.40% 10.38% -4.67% -0.24% 31.81%
Platinum (PPLT) -1.46% 8.62% -6.88% -12.84% 29.77%
Palladium (PALL) -3.92% 6.67% 0.36% -14.78% 22.47%

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Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency assets moved higher, bucking the broader risk-off trend seen in traditional equity markets. Bitcoin (IBIT) gained 1.75%, while Ethereum (ETHA) rose 1.91% on the day. This positive performance mirrored the strength in blockchain-related thematic ETFs, which were among the day’s top performers. The gains suggest some investors may be viewing digital assets as a distinct pocket of opportunity amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) 0.10% 41.78% 26.10% -17.78% -51.63%
XRP (XRP) 0.84% 30.94% 5.22% -24.32%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) 1.48% 26.62% 8.93% -12.55% -33.43%
Bitcoin (IBIT) 1.75% 25.34% 7.30% -10.03% -27.29%
Ethereum (ETHA) 1.91% 33.05% 23.16% -16.54% -42.96%

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What to Watch Today

Looking ahead to Tuesday, market participants will be closely watching key manufacturing data for further insight into the health of the U.S. economy. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final reading for August is due in the morning, followed by the more comprehensive ISM Manufacturing Index. After the market closes, the earnings calendar will feature several notable technology companies, including reports from Dell Technologies, Palo Alto Networks, and MongoDB. There are no Federal Reserve speakers or Treasury auctions scheduled for the day.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.