Emerging Markets Surge as Geopolitical Deal Eases Oil Prices

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Macro Overview

Global equity markets advanced, with investors looking past the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance from the previous day. In the U.S., the S&P 500 (IVV) gained 1.01%, recovering from prior losses on the back of positive economic data. The standout performer was Emerging Markets (EEM), which surged 3.25% to push its year-to-date return above 30%, while Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) added a more modest 0.61%. In contrast, Broad Commodities (DJP) edged lower by 0.40%, pressured by a significant geopolitical development that impacted crude oil prices, while the U.S. Aggregate Bond (AGG) rose 0.29%.

U.S. Size & Style

A clear risk-on sentiment was evident across U.S. equity styles, with growth stocks leading value across all market capitalizations. Large Growth (IVW) climbed 1.68%, significantly outpacing the 0.26% gain in Large Value (IVE). Smaller companies showed the most strength, as the Small Cap (IJR) index advanced 1.81% and Small Growth (IJT) rose 1.91%. This broad-based rally extended the positive year-to-date performance for all nine size and style segments.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Large Value (IVE) 0.26% 1.05% 8.26% 7.56% 21.20%
Large Cap (IVV) 1.01% 1.37% 13.46% 10.10% 26.80%
Large Growth (IVW) 1.68% 1.68% 18.16% 12.12% 31.58%
Mid Value (IJJ) 0.81% 4.89% 11.36% 10.80% 21.98%
Mid Cap (IJH) 1.07% 5.29% 13.07% 15.37% 27.00%
Mid Growth (IJK) 1.29% 5.61% 14.61% 19.64% 31.58%
Small Value (IJS) 1.61% 6.06% 15.70% 17.91% 39.59%
Small Cap (IJR) 1.81% 6.88% 17.52% 19.71% 36.50%
Small Growth (IJT) 1.91% 7.66% 19.26% 21.31% 33.36%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Technology was the unambiguous leader, propelling the broader market’s recovery. The Technology (XLK) sector jumped 3.04%, fueled by strength in chipmakers, and is now up over 33% year-to-date. Conversely, the Energy (XLE) sector was the session’s laggard, falling 1.65% after a U.S.-Iran agreement led to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and eased oil supply concerns. Other notable laggards included defensive areas like Health Care (XLV) and Financials (XLF), which declined 0.87% and 0.89%, respectively.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY) 1.04% 1.35% 13.50% 10.09% 26.75%
Technology (XLK) 3.04% 9.80% 38.93% 33.13% 59.36%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) 1.45% 0.72% 6.17% -1.69% 12.22%
Industrials (XLI) 0.73% 5.95% 9.83% 16.95% 28.91%
Utilities (XLU) 0.67% 1.87% -3.55% 5.57% 14.26%
Communication Services (XLC) 0.23% -6.44% -3.40% -6.73% 7.08%
Real Estate (XLRE) -0.25% 0.25% 5.08% 9.42% 8.44%
Materials (XLB) -0.40% 3.17% 7.34% 14.75% 21.40%
Consumer Staples (XLP) -0.45% -3.03% 1.36% 7.84% 6.43%
Health Care (XLV) -0.87% 2.53% 1.95% -3.09% 14.12%
Financials (XLF) -0.89% 3.54% 9.95% -1.69% 8.31%
Energy (XLE) -1.65% -11.24% -7.38% 21.04% 26.02%

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Global Thematic

Thematic performance was dominated by technology-centric strategies, particularly those focused on artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) led all funds with a 9.66% advance, while several AI-focused ETFs like VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS) and Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) posted gains well over 5%. At the other end of the spectrum, miners of precious and industrial metals struggled amid a stronger dollar and easing geopolitical tensions. The Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF Silver Miners ETF (SLVR) and Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) were among the worst performers, both falling more than 3%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day
Leaders
Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) 9.66%
VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS) 7.08%
Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) 5.65%
iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) 5.62%
WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund (WTAI) 5.57%
Laggards
Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF Silver Miners ETF (SLVR) -3.71%
Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) -3.13%
Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF (GBUG) -2.97%
Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ) -2.95%
Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) -2.90%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

Asian technology hubs delivered exceptional returns, driving performance in both developed and emerging markets. South Korea (EWY) was the day’s top-performing country ETF, soaring 6.89% to bring its remarkable year-to-date gain above 125%. In emerging markets, Taiwan (EWT) also posted a substantial 4.64% gain, contributing significantly to the broader EEM index’s strength. In contrast, commodity-centric countries lagged, with Brazil (EWZ) declining 1.11% and Canada (EWC) falling 0.55%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA) 0.61% 3.30% 9.68% 10.44% 23.96%
Australia (EWA) -0.31% 0.54% 3.44% 10.59% 13.93%
Canada (EWC) -0.55% 1.01% 6.08% 7.81% 29.44%
France (EWQ) 1.01% 4.61% 8.79% 4.24% 13.12%
Germany (EWG) 0.39% 0.01% 6.50% -0.36% 5.13%
Hong Kong (EWH) -0.28% -9.80% -4.54% 1.74% 16.14%
Japan (EWJ) 1.92% 6.44% 15.00% 19.86% 37.49%
Netherlands (EWN) 1.40% 11.29% 22.60% 25.41% 42.14%
South Korea (EWY) 6.89% 24.47% 66.21% 125.47% 230.32%
Switzerland (EWL) -0.26% 0.86% 7.87% 4.09% 17.21%
U.K. (EWU) -1.00% -1.10% 1.62% 4.86% 19.86%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM) 3.25% 9.51% 23.60% 30.04% 54.87%
Brazil (EWZ) -1.11% -7.32% -6.09% 7.18% 25.62%
China (MCHI) -0.43% -5.75% -7.19% -11.57% -0.29%
India (INDA) 1.06% 3.64% 3.90% -8.27% -7.83%
Indonesia (EIDO) -0.40% -9.30% -17.79% -32.34% -28.51%
Malaysia (EWM) -0.33% -4.63% -4.27% 2.66% 20.95%
Mexico (EWW) 0.03% 0.72% 8.40% 13.17% 35.64%
South Africa (EZA) 0.35% 0.49% 3.48% -0.94% 38.80%
Taiwan (EWT) 4.64% 19.87% 54.18% 73.13% 105.35%
Thailand (THD) 0.88% 3.02% 13.03% 24.02% 50.35%

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Fixed Income

The U.S. Treasury market reflected the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook from the prior day, leading to a notable flattening of the yield curve. With short-term yields rising, the Short-Term Treasury (BSV) gained 0.14%, while longer-dated bonds saw larger price increases as the Long-Term Treasury (SPTL) rose 0.50%. Credit-sensitive assets performed well in tandem with the equity market rally, as High Yield (HYG) added 0.35%. Convertible bonds (CWB), which exhibit equity-like characteristics, were a standout with a 0.95% gain.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Multisector
Long-Term (BLV) 0.45% 3.39% 1.58% 1.37% 6.02%
Core (AGG) 0.29% 1.25% 0.53% 0.66% 4.84%
Core Enhanced (IUSB) 0.28% 1.29% 0.71% 0.82% 5.19%
Short-Term (BSV) 0.14% 0.30% 0.25% 0.33% 3.47%
Government
Long-Term (SPTL) 0.50% 3.75% 0.84% 1.08% 4.96%
Inflation Protected (TIP) 0.33% 0.16% -0.02% 1.19% 4.07%
Intermediate (SPTI) 0.25% 0.65% -0.43% -0.27% 3.25%
Short-Term (SPTS) 0.14% 0.22% 0.33% 0.52% 3.31%
Ultrashort (BIL) 0.04% 0.34% 0.91% 1.66% 3.87%
Specialty
Convertible (CWB) 0.95% 7.66% 18.55% 24.74% 39.50%
Preferred Stock (PFF) 0.45% 0.67% 3.21% 2.92% 9.02%
High Yield (HYG) 0.35% 1.11% 2.31% 1.74% 6.65%
Mortgage Backed (MBB) 0.31% 1.42% 0.53% 0.97% 6.29%
Corporate (SPIB) 0.21% 0.77% 0.82% 0.58% 4.95%
Bank Loans (BKLN) -0.05% -0.29% 1.23% -0.04% 4.49%
International & EM
Emerging USD (EMB) 0.47% 2.66% 3.89% 2.68% 11.82%
International USD (BNDX) 0.08% 1.60% 1.21% 1.21% 2.25%
Emerging Local (EMLC) -0.04% 1.82% 3.43% 1.64% 9.56%
International Local (IGOV) -0.31% -0.19% 0.39% -1.10% -0.91%
Municipals
High Yield (HYD) 0.45% 2.16% 2.70% 2.52% 7.85%
Intermediate (MUB) 0.33% 1.44% 1.14% 1.54% 6.58%
Long-Term (MLN) 0.28% 1.82% 1.56% 2.29% 8.75%
Short-Term (SUB) 0.12% 0.60% 0.31% 0.93% 3.02%

Explore the related Explorers: Taxable → · Municipal → · Specialty →

Commodities

Geopolitical developments were the primary catalyst in the commodities complex, particularly for energy markets. An agreement between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz caused crude oil prices to tumble initially on easing supply concerns, though WTI Crude (USO) recovered to post a 0.56% gain. Precious metals declined under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and the prospect of higher interest rates, with Gold (GLD) falling 0.38% and Silver (SLV) dropping 1.81%. Agricultural commodities were also broadly negative, as Corn (CORN) and Wheat (WEAT) both fell more than 1.1%.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP) -0.40% -11.69% -6.35% 19.68% 25.27%
Agriculture
Soybeans (SOYB) -0.70% -3.58% 0.37% 11.02% 7.91%
Broad (DBA) -0.78% -5.57% -1.04% 4.35% 3.01%
Wheat (WEAT) -1.12% -8.24% -1.16% 14.87% -5.21%
Corn (CORN) -1.17% -9.55% -9.02% -4.40% -7.88%
Sugar (CANE) -1.58% -5.84% -6.31% -4.15% -14.30%
Energy
Natural Gas (UNG) 1.47% 1.73% -7.34% -4.24% -35.07%
Brent Crude (BNO) 0.90% -23.89% -15.87% 54.94% 34.03%
WTI Crude (USO) 0.56% -23.06% -5.59% 66.09% 39.63%
Broad (DBE) 0.27% -17.94% -8.61% 57.30% 39.16%
Industrial Metals
Copper (CPER) 0.57% 1.20% 15.48% 11.16% 28.04%
Broad (DBB) 0.28% -0.67% 8.68% 10.29% 38.04%
Precious Metals
Gold (GLD) -0.38% -7.48% -12.96% -2.32% 24.77%
Broad (DBP) -0.87% -9.52% -13.32% -4.35% 31.55%
Silver (SLV) -1.81% -14.91% -13.38% -7.62% 78.87%
Platinum (PPLT) -1.91% -13.85% -16.39% -17.56% 27.51%
Palladium (PALL) -2.02% -9.15% -14.18% -20.11% 21.65%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets broadly declined, moving counter to the positive sentiment in traditional equity markets. The sector saw widespread losses, with Bitcoin (IBIT) falling 2.04% and Ethereum (ETHA) down 1.45%. Other major assets posted even larger declines, as Solana (SOLZ) and XRP (XRP) both shed over 3.2%. This continues a difficult year for the asset class, with most major crypto ETFs showing significant year-to-date and one-year losses.

Name (Ticker) 1-Day 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year
Solana (SOLZ) -3.31% -18.64% -23.23% -44.90% -56.29%
XRP (XRP) -3.26% -17.60% -21.31% -37.72%
Bitcoin (IBIT) -2.04% -18.17% -11.53% -28.26% -39.60%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ) -1.94% -18.24% -13.78% -31.20% -40.87%
Ethereum (ETHA) -1.45% -19.50% -21.94% -42.58% -31.78%

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What to Watch Today

Thursday’s session was also notable as it absorbed the monthly options and futures expiration, an event often referred to as “Triple Witching,” which was moved from its typical Friday schedule due to the holiday. With no major economic releases scheduled for Friday, trading will resume this week.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.