Inflation Data Rattles Stocks as Oil and Bonds Diverge

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Macro Overview

U.S. equities extended their pullback as the S&P 500 (IVV) declined 0.60%, marking a fourth consecutive lower close following the hotter-than-expected August PPI print. Developed ex-U.S. markets (EFA) fell 0.84%, while Emerging Markets (EEM) underperformed with a 2.16% drop, dragged lower by sharp losses in Taiwan and South Korea. Fixed income offered no offset, as the U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) slid 0.65% amid the 10-year Treasury yield’s climb near 4.96%, a multi-year high. Broad Commodities (DJP) stood out as the day’s clear outlier, rising 1.41% and extending a 41.93% year-to-date gain, powered by crude oil’s surge above $107 a barrel amid ongoing U.S./Iran tensions.

U.S. Size & Style

Broad-based weakness characterized U.S. size and style segments, with mid- and small-cap growth names bearing the brunt of the selling. Mid Growth (IJK) fell 1.16% and Small Growth (IJT) declined 0.94%, both showing RSI readings of 34 and 30 respectively, approaching oversold territory. Large Cap (IVV) held up relatively better at -0.60%, though only 33% of its constituents trade above their 50-day moving average. Value continued to outperform growth across most size tiers on the day, with Large Value (IVE) down just 0.32% versus Large Growth’s (IVW) 0.83% decline, reflecting a rotation away from higher-multiple names amid rising rates.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Large Value (IVE)-0.32%-1.30%4.22%10.83%17.46%
Large Cap (IVV)-0.60%-1.96%4.75%11.77%17.56%
Large Growth (IVW)-0.83%-2.52%5.14%12.30%17.32%
Mid Value (IJJ)-0.68%-3.86%1.32%10.23%12.37%
Mid Cap (IJH)-0.94%-4.75%0.53%12.45%14.38%
Mid Growth (IJK)-1.16%-5.56%-0.25%14.36%16.09%
Small Value (IJS)-0.84%-3.08%2.12%18.43%23.92%
Small Cap (IJR)-0.88%-4.47%2.14%18.23%21.83%
Small Growth (IJT)-0.94%-5.88%2.03%17.72%19.45%

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U.S. Sectors & Industries

Sector performance skewed defensive relative to cyclicals, with Communication Services (XLC) the lone gainer at 0.60% and Consumer Staples (XLP) essentially flat at 0.05%. Technology (XLK) led decliners with a 1.41% drop despite its 28.96% year-to-date gain, while Materials (XLB) fell 1.23% amid broader pressure on industrial commodities. Energy (XLE) declined 0.58% on the day even as crude prices rallied, though the sector’s RSI of 65 and 81% of constituents above their 50-day average underscore its dominant longer-term trend, with a 47.20% year-to-date advance. Real Estate (XLRE) and Utilities (XLU) both struggled under rising yield pressure, falling 0.83% and 0.98% respectively, with Real Estate showing just 3% of constituents above their 50-day moving average.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
S&P 500 (SPY)-0.60%-1.97%4.73%11.72%17.48%
Communication Services (XLC)0.60%-0.30%0.71%-4.73%-1.50%
Consumer Staples (XLP)0.05%-2.19%-2.13%8.32%6.84%
Financials (XLF)-0.33%-1.63%9.26%4.73%8.63%
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-0.44%-6.44%-1.15%-5.86%-3.10%
Health Care (XLV)-0.55%-1.65%8.85%7.93%22.73%
Energy (XLE)-0.58%7.89%12.26%47.20%50.23%
Industrials (XLI)-0.72%-7.61%0.77%10.52%14.12%
Real Estate (XLRE)-0.83%-3.04%-3.48%8.33%6.36%
Utilities (XLU)-0.98%-1.41%-2.75%0.93%3.28%
Materials (XLB)-1.23%-4.55%2.72%12.84%13.94%
Technology (XLK)-1.41%-0.59%4.99%28.96%37.84%

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Global Thematic

Thematic performance was dominated by sharp losses in commodity-linked strategies, as the Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) tumbled 7.24% and the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) fell 6.99%, tracking the day’s decline in copper prices. Software and internet-focused themes fared comparatively well, with the Invesco NASDAQ Internet ETF (PNQI) the only notable gainer at 0.37%, while the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD) and Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) posted only modest declines. The divergence highlights a rotation away from metals and mining exposure as industrial commodity prices reversed sharply even as energy commodities advanced. Critical materials exposure via the Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM) also declined 5.44%, consistent with the broader metals weakness.

Name (Ticker)1-Day
Leaders
Invesco NASDAQ Internet ETF (PNQI)0.37%
WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD)-0.08%
Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD)-0.10%
Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF (BETZ)-0.19%
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS)-0.20%
Laggards
Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)-7.24%
Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)-6.99%
Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ)-6.85%
iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (ICOP)-6.25%
Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)-5.44%

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Developed ex-U.S. & Emerging Markets

International markets broadly retreated, with South Korea (EWY) leading losses at 4.19% despite an extraordinary 88.01% year-to-date gain, suggesting a pullback after outsized recent strength. Taiwan (EWT) fell 2.54% and South Africa (EZA) declined 2.48%, while Australia (EWA) dropped 1.82% within developed markets. Brazil (EWZ) was a notable exception, rising 1.29% and extending its year-to-date advance to 22.53%. China (MCHI) continued its underperformance, down 1.01% on the day and 11.52% year-to-date, remaining among the weakest major emerging markets alongside India (INDA) at -10.99% year-to-date.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Developed Markets ex-U.S.
Developed ex-U.S. (EFA)-0.84%-2.18%5.66%11.76%18.29%
Australia (EWA)-1.82%-3.23%4.65%12.61%10.65%
Canada (EWC)-1.15%-1.97%4.96%12.32%23.66%
France (EWQ)-0.60%-6.55%0.93%1.53%7.02%
Germany (EWG)-0.98%-2.85%5.32%2.28%5.84%
Hong Kong (EWH)-0.97%-1.45%6.78%7.43%8.82%
Japan (EWJ)-0.58%0.41%8.58%20.08%25.22%
Netherlands (EWN)-1.40%-1.75%2.48%19.55%31.61%
South Korea (EWY)-4.19%12.05%2.43%88.01%143.89%
Switzerland (EWL)-0.76%-6.31%0.47%2.35%10.33%
U.K. (EWU)-0.63%-1.98%5.25%9.63%17.75%
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets (EEM)-2.16%2.81%4.14%23.08%32.53%
Brazil (EWZ)1.29%9.58%15.24%22.53%35.37%
China (MCHI)-1.01%-7.25%-1.78%-11.52%-13.97%
India (INDA)-1.15%-4.05%1.71%-10.99%-9.50%
Indonesia (EIDO)-2.13%0.78%7.92%-30.05%-23.79%
Malaysia (EWM)-0.39%-0.50%3.02%4.07%14.93%
Mexico (EWW)-1.63%-2.18%2.61%10.13%21.09%
South Africa (EZA)-2.48%-0.27%12.41%3.22%25.42%
Taiwan (EWT)-2.54%6.60%11.14%71.45%82.13%
Thailand (THD)-0.88%0.64%4.99%27.21%27.70%

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Fixed Income

Fixed income broadly declined as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed toward 4.96% and the 30-year yield approached 5.34%, its highest level relative to the 2007 peak. Long-Term Treasuries (BLV) fell 1.16%, the weakest performer among core categories, while Convertibles (CWB) declined 1.35% despite maintaining a 15.55% year-to-date gain. Short-duration instruments held up better, with Ultrashort Treasuries (BIL) essentially flat and Bank Loans (BKLN) unchanged, reflecting reduced rate sensitivity. High Yield (HYG) slipped a modest 0.46%, outperforming investment-grade Core Bonds (AGG), which fell 0.65% and remain down 1.23% year-to-date.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Multisector
Short-Term (BSV)-0.36%-0.48%-0.06%0.13%1.27%
Core Enhanced (IUSB)-0.63%-0.83%-1.07%-0.90%-0.02%
Core (AGG)-0.65%-0.88%-1.29%-1.23%-0.48%
Long-Term (BLV)-1.16%-1.08%-3.38%-3.69%-4.35%
Government
Ultrashort (BIL)0.01%0.30%0.90%2.47%3.68%
Short-Term (SPTS)-0.21%-0.16%0.29%0.74%1.98%
Inflation Protected (TIP)-0.44%-0.50%-0.96%0.05%-0.41%
Intermediate (SPTI)-0.58%-1.06%-1.01%-1.62%-1.03%
Long-Term (SPTL)-1.12%-1.03%-3.14%-4.03%-4.88%
Specialty
Bank Loans (BKLN)0.00%1.00%2.44%2.20%4.76%
High Yield (HYG)-0.46%-0.54%0.42%1.48%3.17%
Corporate (SPIB)-0.55%-0.85%-0.70%-0.47%0.69%
Preferred Stock (PFF)-0.70%-1.48%-1.21%0.18%-0.85%
Mortgage Backed (MBB)-0.80%-1.19%-1.52%-1.16%0.19%
Convertible (CWB)-1.35%-1.42%-0.90%15.55%18.29%
International & EM
Emerging Local (EMLC)-0.51%-0.11%2.69%2.78%6.72%
International USD (BNDX)-0.56%-1.48%-1.23%-0.97%-0.72%
International Local (IGOV)-0.78%-0.63%-0.37%-1.75%-2.67%
Emerging USD (EMB)-0.81%-1.07%-0.76%0.44%3.27%
Municipals
Short-Term (SUB)-0.24%-0.59%-0.24%0.51%0.89%
High Yield (HYD)-0.61%-2.65%-3.40%-1.43%0.87%
Intermediate (MUB)-0.73%-2.69%-3.05%-2.02%-0.02%
Long-Term (MLN)-1.07%-4.37%-4.07%-2.34%0.26%

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Commodities

Energy commodities surged as Brent crude climbed above $107 a barrel and WTI advanced sharply amid ongoing U.S./Iran tensions, with Brent Crude (BNO) up 6.42% and WTI Crude (USO) up 5.61%, extending year-to-date gains beyond 120%. Precious metals moved sharply lower as rising rate-hike odds pressured non-yielding assets, with Silver (SLV) tumbling 5.30% and Platinum (PPLT) falling 5.95%, while Gold (GLD) declined 1.73%. Industrial metals also retreated, as Copper (CPER) fell 4.90% and Base Metals (DBB) declined 3.61%. Agricultural commodities were firmer across the board, with Sugar (CANE) up 1.81% and Soybeans (SOYB) up 1.74%, contributing to Broad Commodities’ (DJP) 1.41% gain.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
Broad Commodities (DJP)1.41%10.08%14.45%41.93%53.61%
Agriculture
Sugar (CANE)1.81%10.47%24.95%21.17%11.40%
Soybeans (SOYB)1.74%11.80%16.33%28.73%28.38%
Wheat (WEAT)1.64%11.25%18.50%33.75%29.03%
Broad (DBA)1.10%5.39%11.36%14.89%11.62%
Corn (CORN)0.91%13.44%17.22%12.86%14.54%
Energy
Brent Crude (BNO)6.42%25.98%22.68%122.92%107.46%
WTI Crude (USO)5.61%25.78%17.93%129.01%111.99%
Broad (DBE)5.33%22.94%22.98%119.41%107.46%
Natural Gas (UNG)0.99%0.49%-11.70%-16.88%-20.89%
Industrial Metals
Broad (DBB)-3.61%-1.29%1.16%10.46%30.72%
Copper (CPER)-4.90%-2.84%3.50%11.67%37.80%
Precious Metals
Gold (GLD)-1.73%-1.54%5.81%0.01%18.22%
Broad (DBP)-2.74%-1.82%4.34%-3.12%22.71%
Silver (SLV)-5.30%-3.21%-0.28%-10.74%53.70%
Palladium (PALL)-5.45%-7.49%4.97%-20.11%7.99%
Platinum (PPLT)-5.95%1.38%6.61%-13.48%27.44%

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Cryptocurrency

Digital assets traded lower across the board, consistent with the broader risk-off tone in equities. XRP (XRP) led declines at 3.83%, followed by Solana (SOLZ) at 2.65%. Bitcoin (IBIT) declined a more modest 1.38%, while Ethereum (ETHA) was nearly flat at -0.11%, showing relative resilience versus peers. Despite the day’s losses, most crypto-linked products retain substantial one-month gains, with Solana up 30.25% and Ethereum up 31.26% over that period, though year-to-date figures remain negative across the group.

Name (Ticker)1-Day1 Month3 MonthYTD1 Year
XRP (XRP)-3.83%32.19%22.72%-26.56%
Solana (SOLZ)-2.65%30.25%56.28%-21.05%-57.51%
Multi-Coin (NCIQ)-1.81%22.43%27.96%-14.04%-36.87%
Bitcoin (IBIT)-1.38%20.56%24.52%-12.02%-32.31%
Ethereum (ETHA)-0.11%31.26%51.14%-17.25%-43.24%

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What to Watch Today

Markets will focus on Friday’s August Consumer Price Index report, due at 8:30 AM ET, with consensus calling for a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.4% year-over-year reading. The print follows Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI data and comes as traders have raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate move next week to roughly 70%. No Fed speakers are scheduled Friday given the FOMC quiet period, which runs through September 17 ahead of the September 16 policy decision. No additional scheduled earnings, Treasury auctions, or index option expirations were confirmed for Friday’s session.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. All investments, including ETFs, involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Investors should consider their investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.

This analysis was developed by the team at ETF Action. We leverage advanced AI tools to assist in the drafting and refinement of our content, based on our expert prompts, direction, and final review.