ETF Action Research

 Macroeconomic Review


Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Existing home sales climb for third consecutive month, year/year sales at highest pace since 2006
  • Manufacturing activity (Chicago Fed) continues to grow but at slower pace
  • Week ahead: GDP, Employment Situation, & Manufacturing PMI

 Macro Brief: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey


Texas manufacturing expanded for the fourth month in a row

  • The Dallas Fed Production Index rose 9pts to its highest level in two years (to 22.3 from 13.1)
  • General activity index also jumped 6pts to 13.6 (highest level since November 2018)
  • Employment index advanced to 14.5, indicative of more robust hiring
  • Expectations regarding future activity more positive in September

 Macro Brief: FHFA House Price Index


FHFA House Price Index makes largest two-month advance in index history

  • July prices moved 1.0% higher month/month (est 0.6%)
  • June data revised slightly higher (0.9% to 1.0%)
  • Regions ranged from 0.6% m/m in the West North Central division to 2.0% in New England
  • Strong price gains attributed to low interest rates, rebounding housing demand from spring shutdown, and low supply of homes

 Macro Brief: Existing Home Sales


Existing home sales continued climb in August for third consecutive month

  • Existing sales reported 6.00 Million vs 5.965 Million estimated
  • Year/year sales were 10.5% higher marking the highest sales pace since 2006
  • Home sales took 22 days, fastest on record

 Macro Brief: Chicago Fed National Activity Index


Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) suggesting slower (but above average) growth in August

  • CFNAI decreased to +0.79 in August from +2.54 in July
  • Positive contributions from production and employment-related indicators but lower than last month
  • Two of four major categories made positive contributions in August, but all four categories decreased month/month

 Macro Brief: UofM Consumer Sentiment


University of Michigan Consumer sentiment rises in September 

  • Overall sentiment up 4.8 points to 78.9and above expectations (est. 75)
  • Both current conditions and expectations improved; 87.5 & 73.3, respectively
  • Survey results favor Biden to win election (marginally) but Trump better for economy and finances

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims


Initial jobless claims falls 33K w/w for the week ending September 12th

  • 860K initial claims above consensus estimates (est. 850K)
  • 4-week moving average now at 912K
  • Continuing claims decreased 916K to 12.628 million for week ending September 5th
  • Initial & Ongoing claims continue to trend lower but still well above pre-pandemic levels

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts


Housing starts decline after three consecutive monthly increases

  • Home starts decreased to annual rate of 1.416 million (est. 1.486 million)
  • Permits also fall M/M and below consensus estimates (1.470 million vs est 1.530 million)
  • Single family housing starts 4.1% above the revised July figure
  • Follows yesterday's record high in NAHB Housing Market Index (35yr history)
  • Click here to launch the homebuilder ETF screen in the ETF Action terminal

 Macro Brief: Housing Market Index


NAHB Housing Market Index hits highest mark ever

  • Buider sentiment rose 5 points from last month and 5 points higher than consensus estimates (est 78) 
  • Traffic of prospective buyers jumps  9 points to 73, now 60pts higher than the April low
  • West region still leads regionally (87) but other regions catching up
  • Positive market conditions exist as demand a suburban shift and low interest rates, but lumber prices weigh

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