ETF Action Research

 Macro Brief: ISM Manufacturing & Markit PMI


July ISM Manufacturing PMI returns to moves higher after returning to expansion in previous months

  • ISM PMI moves higher to 54.2 (est 53.5) from 52.6
  • Overall economy is growing at a faster pace along with the manufacturing sector
  • New orders and production growing but employment still contracting
  • Prices moving higher, exports & imports both growing

 Macro Brief: Personal Income & Outlays


May personal incomes fell 1.1% (est. -1.0%)

  • Consumer spending rose 5.6% M/M (est 5.6%)
  • Personal savings rate drops to 19% from 24% in May, 33% in April as economy reopens
  • Both headline and core PCE rose slightly month/month, in line with consensus estimates

 Macro Brief: UofM Consumer Sentiment


University of Michigan Consumer sentiment data shows a slip downwards from June

  • Current conditions declined to 82.8, still well above consumer expectations (65.9)
  • Resurgence in coronavirus cases major reason for recent decline
  • Lapse in relief benefits may push sentiment lower as Congress debates new stimulus measures

 Macro Brief: GDP


First estimate for 2nd quarter worst on record, GDP decreased at an annual rate of -32.9%

  • Slightly better than consensus estimates of -35.0%
  • Q1 GDP finalized at -5.0%
  • Real consumer spending dropped 34.6% (est -33.0%)
  • Q2 widely expected to be the bottom of economic data, Q3 to show improvement

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims


Initial jobless RISE for second consecutive week as COVID cases have been spiking regionally

  • 1.434 million initial claims above consensus estimates (est. 1.388 million)
  • Majority of new claims filed coming from California, Florida, New York
  • 4-week moving average now at 1.369 million
  • Previous week revised 6K higher
  • Continuing claims increased by 867K to 17.018 million for week ending July 18

 Macro Brief: Conference Board Consumer Confidence


Consumer confidence falls from June and comes in below expectations in July (92.6 vs est 95.7)

  • Present conditions improved from 86.7 to 94.2
  • Expectations index decreased to 91.5 from 106.1
  • Largest declines came from COVID outbreak areas - Florida, Texas, California, and Michigan

 Macro Brief: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI


U.S. home prices rose at a slower rate in May

  • S&P CoreLogic HPI 20-city index (SA) rose 3.7% Yr/Yr
  • Housing prices continue to be remarkably stable
  • Price growth result of low supply and low rates
  • Phoenix, Seattle, and Tampa reported the highest year-over-year gains among 19 cities

 Macro Brief: Durable Goods Orders


New durable goods orders rose 7.3% M/M in June, above consensus estimates

  • Second consecutive monthly rise following March/April declines during economic shutdown
  • Core capital goods rise 3.3% m/m
  • Headline, ex-transportation, & core capital goods data in May all revised slightly lower

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