ETF Action: Research

Macro Briefs

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Summaries of the day's macroeconomic news reports, as well as weekly reviews including:




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Macro Briefs Archives

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

1.20.2022

Initial jobless claims surged to 286K, the highest levels seen since the week of October 16, 2021

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 286K, well above consensus estimates of 207K
  • Continuing claims jumped 84K to 1.64 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate increased just 0.1% to 1.2%
  • 4-week moving average of jobless claims increased to 231.0K

 

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts

1.19.2022

In December, housing starts increased to 1.702 million, above consensus estimates (est. 1.650 million)

  • Home starts rose 1.4% to a nine-month high in December 
  • Permits surged to 1.873 million, well above consensus estimates of 1.710 million
  • Soaring materials prices, supply constraints, and labor shortages have created headwinds
  • Prices for softwood lumber jumped 24.4% in December after rising 6.9% in November
  • According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the aggregate cost of residential construction materials has surged nearly 18% in the last month

 

 Macro Brief: Housing Market Index

1.18.2022

NAHB Housing Market Index declined by one point in January to 83

  • Builder sentiment declined slightly to 83, just below consensus estimates of 84
  • Traffic of prospective buyers fell by 2 points to 69
  • The Northeast region fell 1 point while the West, South, and Midwest all increased by 1
  • Lumber prices remain high amid sustained demand in addition to supply chain disruptions caused by recent wildfires in the U.S. and the Canadian lumber tariff

 

 Macro Brief: Producer Price Index (PPI)

1.13.2022

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 9.7% year-over-year in December, the largest increase on record which dates back to 2010

  • Headline and Core PPI rose by 0.2% and 0.5% month/month, respectively
  • After stripping out energy and food prices, core PPI rose 8.3% year/year
  • Final demand services rose 0.5%, the 12th straight monthly increase
  • The hakwish Federal Reserve continues to monitor inflation as it looks to tighten its balance sheet, especially after consumer inflation reached 40-year highs according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports released on Wednesday

 Macro Brief: CPI

1.12.2022

Headline inflation month/month rose 0.5% in December, just above consensus estimates, but increased 7% year/ year

  • Headline inflation increased 0.5% above consensus estimates of 0.4%. Year-over-year, headline inflation was up 7%, the largest increase since 1982
  • Core inflation climbed 0.6% month/month, above estimates of 0.5%. Year-over-year, core inflation increased 5.5%, the largest increase since 1991
  • Indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks saw substantial increases 
  • Energy index declined, ending a streak of monthly increases, as gas and natural gas prices fell
  • Food index rose just 0.5%

 

 Macroeconomic Review

1.11.2022

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • ISM Manufacturing Index: The December Manufacturing PMI fell 2.4% to 58.7%
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS): Job openings fell to 10.6 million while the quits rate increased 3% and hires stands at 6.7 million
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report: U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels last week while Gasoline and Distillate inventories saw sizeable increases
  • Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims increased to 207K slightly above consensus estimates of 205K
  • ISM Services Index: The Services PMI surpassed 60% for the 10th consecutive month
  • Employment SituationDecember Employment Situation disappointed as Nonfarm payrolls were well below estimates, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%

 

 Macro Brief: Employment Situation

1.7.2022

December Employment Situation disappointed as Nonfarm payrolls were well below estimates, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 199K in November, significantly below consensus estimates of 400K
  • Unemployment rate fell for the third consecutive month to 3.9%
  • Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing construction, and transportation all saw healthy gains
  • Participation rate increasd slightly to 61.9% in the month
  • The number of employed persons that teleworked due to the coronavirus pandemic was little changed at 11.1%

 

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

1.6.2022

Initial jobless claims increased to 207K slightly above consensus estimates of 205K

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 207K from 198K the previous week and were above consensus estimates of 205K
  • Continuing claims fell rose 36K to 1.75 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged from previous levels at 1.3%
  • 4-week moving average of jobless claims increased to 204.5K

 

 Macro Brief: EIA Petroleum Status Report

1.5.2022

U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels last week while Gasoline and Distillate inventories saw sizeable increases

  • At 417.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the 5-year average for this time of year
  • Gasoline inventories rose by 10.1 million barrels
  • Distillate inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels 
  • Price have begun to rise as production increases, especially for gasoline

 

 Macroeconomic Review

1.4.2022

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • House Price Index: Housing prices rose 1.1% in October nationwide and increased 17.4% from October 2020
  • Pending Home Sales: Pending home sales fell 2.2% in November, all regions saw declines month-over-month
  • Jobless Claims: In the week ended December 25, initial jobless claims fell slightly to 198,000

 

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