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Macro Briefs

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Summaries of the day's macroeconomic news reports, as well as weekly reviews including:




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Macro Briefs Archives

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

6.23.2022

For the week ended June 18, initial jobless claims were relatively flat at 229K and continuing claims rose just 5K to 1.31 million as the labor market continues to stay historically tight

  • Initial jobless claims declined 2K to 229K as the previous week's figures were updated to 231K
  • Continuing claims increased just 5K to 1.31 million while the 4-week moving average fell 7K to 1.31 million, the lowest levels since January 1970
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 0.9%
  • Despite concerns of an economic slowdown in the U.S., initial claims data continues to inddicate the labor market remains strong with around 5 million more avaliable jobs than avaliable workers.
  • However, there are signs the labor market could be beginning to slow as evidenced by U.S. employers adding 390K jobs in May, which was below the average monthly pace of growth earlier in 2022

 

 Macroeconomic Review

6.21.2022

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Producer Price Index: In May, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.8%, in line with consensus estimates. All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve which is expected to announce a 50 bps or 75 bps interest rate hike on Wednesday to battle highly elevated inflation
  • Retail Sales: Retail Sales dropped unexpectedly in May as inflationary pressures continue to extend to consumers. Overall sales fell from April levels despite higher spending at gas stations due to the surging price in gasoline
  • Import & Export Prices: U.S. import prices rose 0.6% while U.S. exports jumped 2.8% in May amid surging fuel prices. Import fuel prices shot up 7.5% on the month
  • Business Inventories: In April, business inventories rose 1.2% month-over-month and 16.6% year-over-year. The inventories to sales ratio increased to 1.29 from 1.28 in March
  • Housing Market Index: The Housing Market Index declined for the 6th consecutive month in May to 67. In December 2021, the index sat at 84
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report: For the week ended June 10, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs decreased by 670K barrels per day to 16.3 million barrels. U.S. crude oil inventories and distillate inventories increased while gasoline inventories decreased. The national average retail regular gasoline price rose once again to $5.006
  • Housing Starts & Permits: In May, housing starts plunged 14.4% from April levels while building permits declined 7.0% as recession fears, elevated materials costs, and surging mortgage rates continue to impact housing construction
  • Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims decreased 3K to 229K for the week ending June 11, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 0.9%, and continuing claims increased 3K from the previous week
  • Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization: Total industrial production was higher by 0.2% in May, output increased for the 5th consecutive month, and manufacturing output fell 01.%

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts

6.16.2022

In May, housing starts plunged 14.4% from April levels while building permits declined 7.0% as recession fears, elevated materials costs, and surging mortgage rates continue to impact housing construction

  • Housing starts dropped to 1.549 million, below consensus estimates of 1.695 million, and sit 3.5% below May 2021 levels
  • Building permits fell to 1.695 million, below consensus estimates of 1.780 million, and sit relatively in line with May 2021 levels
  • The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage jumped to 6.28% and the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates 75 bps, the largest increase since 1994
  • Single-family housing starts, which represents the largest share of homebuilding, sunk 9.2% on the month
  • Buyer capacity continues to face headwinds from high materials costs, but many experts believe demand housing remains high as the job market remains strong and millenials begin to start families

 

 Macro Brief: Retail Sales

6.15.2022

Retail Sales dropped unexpectedly in May as inflationary pressures continue to extend to consumers. Overall sales fell from April levels despite higher spending at gas stations due to the surging price in gasoline

  • Headline retail sales declined 0.3% month-over-month, well below consensus estimates of +0.1%
  • Excluding autos & gas, sales also rose by just 0.1%, below consensus estimates of +0.5%
  • Sales at gas stations increased +4.0% in May, but sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers declined 3.5% on the month
  • Gasoline stations were up 43.2% year/year while food services and drinking places were up 17.5% year/year
  • Importantly, year-over-year consumer spending is up 8.1% in May illustrating the resiliency of consumers amid rising prices

 Macro Brief: Producer Price Index (PPI)

6.14.2022

In May, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.8%, in line with consensus estimates. All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve which is expected to announce a 50 bps or 75 bps interest rate hike on Wednesday to battle highly elevated inflation

  • Headline and Core PPI rose by 0.8% and 0.5% month/month, respectively
  • Headline PPI jumped 10.8% year/year, close to record high increases set earlier this year
  • After stripping out energy, food, and trade prices, core PPI rose 6.8% year/year
  • Final demand services increased just 0.4% in May after falling slightly in April
  • Final demand goods was the main driver of the increase of final demand as it rose another 1.4%, the fifth consecutive monthly increase
  • The PPI results coupled with the Consumer Price Index results announced last week indicate significant inflationary pressures have persisted adding to recession fears as the Fed continues its rate hike program

 

 Macroeconomic Review

6.13.2022

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Balance of Goods, Imports/ Exports of Goods: The goods and services trade deficit decreased $20.6 billion to $87.1 billion in April as the goods deficit decreased and the services surplus increased
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report: For the week ended June 3, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs increased by 355K barrels per day to 16.4 million barrels. U.S. crude oil inventories and distillate inventories increased while gasoline inventories decreased. The national average retail regular gasoline price rose once again to $4.876
  • Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims increased 27K to 229K for the week ending June 4, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 0.9%, and continuing claims was unchanged from the previous week
  • Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 8.6% year-over-year, the fastest rise since December 1981. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also increased 6.0% year-over-year. Notably, energy prices broadly rose by 3.9% month-over-month as fuel oil increased 16.9%
  • Consumer Sentiment: Overall consumer sentiment continues to decline as it fell 14% month-over-month and 41.3% year-over-year. Business conditions plunged 24% from the previous month as consumers continued to weigh inflationary concerns

 Macro Brief: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

6.7.2022

The goods and services trade deficit decreased $20.6 billion to $87.1 billion in April as the goods deficit decreased and the services surplus increased

  • Trade deficit declined to $87.1 billion in April from $107. 7billion in March
  • Exports rose $8.4 billion (+3.5%) to $252.6 billion and imports dropped $12.1 billion (-3.4%) to $339.7 billion
  • The goods deficit declined $19.1 billion to $107.7 billion while the services surplus increased $1.5 billion to $20.7 billion in April
  • Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit has risen $107.9 billion, or 41.1%, from April 2021

 

 Macro Brief: Employment Situation

6.3.2022

The Employment Situation indicated that the labor market continued to tighten, but at a slower pace, in May as nonfarm payrolls rose by 390K

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 390K in May, well above consensus estimates of 325K
  • The Unemployment Rate was steady at 3.6% and the number of unemployed persons was relatively unchanged at 6.0 million
  • Sizeable job gains continued in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and transportation and warehousing
  • The Participation Rate increased was little changed at 62.3%, in line with consensus estimates
  • The number of employed persons that teleworked due to the coronavirus pandemic fell to 7.4% in May

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

6.2.2022

Initial jobless claims dropped to 200K last week below consensus estimates of 210K while continuing claims fell another 34K to the lowest levels since December 27, 1969

  • Initial jobless claims declined 11K to 200K as the previous week's figures were updated to 211K
  • Continuing claims decreased 34K to 1.31 million while the 4-week moving average fell 19.5K to 1.33 million, the lowest levels since January 1970
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate declined slightly to 0.9%
  • Notably, state jobless benefits rolls dropped to their lowest level since May 1969
  • While labor demand remains extremely high, a lack of available workers continues to add pressure to the economy which is already facing headwinds from rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions

 

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