ETF Action: Research

Macro Briefs

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Summaries of the day's macroeconomic news reports, as well as weekly reviews including:




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Macro Briefs Archives

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

7.29.2021

Weekly initial jobless claims fell to 400K, despite rising COVID-19 fears

  • 400K initial claims slightly above consensus estimates (est. 390K)
  • Continuing claims rose by 7K to 3.269 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate unchanged at 2.4%
  • 4-week moving average slightly rises to 394.50K

 Macro Brief: EIA Petroleum Status Report

7.28.2021

Crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels last week as prices near $75

  • Crude oil inventories were 7% less than average
  • Gasoline inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels
  • Distillate inventories declined by 3.1 million barrels 
  • More cases of the coronvirus delta variant may curb future demand

 Macro Brief: Durable Goods Order

7.27.2021

June new durable goods orders steadily increase, but far under the consensus

  • 0.8% monthly increase below consensus estimates (est 2.1%)
  • Core capital goods rise 0.5% m/m above the 0.0% estimate
  • Motor vehicle shipments fell 0.5% m/m
  • Inventories increased for the fifth consecutive month by 0.9%

 

 Macro Brief: New Home Sales

7.26.2021

June New Home Sales unexpectedly decline for the third month in a row

  • New Home Sales fall to an annual rate of 676K vs estimated 800K
  • Median home sales price decline to $361.8K
  • Sales fall by 19.4% on year/year basis
  • Homebuilder ETF Plays: ITB, XHB, HOMZ, NAIL

 Macroeconomic Review

7.25.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Housing Market Index: NAHB Housing Market Index unexpectedly declined to 80, despite buyer demand remaining high 
  • Housing Starts: Housing starts increased in June, while permits fell well below the consensus
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report: Crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, but prices dropped to lowest level since March 
  • Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose above consensus estimates
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: The U.S. rig count rose by 7 last week and prices recovered after Monday decline  
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, Fed Releases, Personal Income and Consumer Spending 

 Macro Brief: Baker Hughes Rig Count

7.23.2021

The U.S. rig count rose by 7 last week and prices recovered after Monday decline 

  • U.S. rigs increased from 484 to 491
  • Total rig count in North America rose by 6 to 640
  • Rig count has been steadily rising since hitting a low last August 
  • OPEC+ agreement and rising coronavirus variant cases brought down prices, but demand remains high

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

7.22.2021

Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose above consensus estimates

  • 419K initial claims above consensus estimates (est. 350K)
  • Continuing claims fall by 29K to 3.236 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate unchanged at 2.4%
  • 4-week moving average falls to 382.25K

 Macro Brief: EIA Petroleum Status Report

7.21.2021

Crude oil inventories rose by 2.1 million barrels last week, but prices dropped to lowest level since March

  • Crude oil inventories were 7% less than average
  • Gasoline inventories fell by 0.1 million barrels
  • Distillate inventories declined by 1.3 million barrels 
  • The new OPEC+ agreement and covid variant are likely responsible for falling prices

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts

7.20.2021

Housing starts increase in June, while permits fall well below the consensus

  • Home starts increased to an annual rate of 1.643 million (est. 1.590 million)
  • Permits decreased M/M and below consensus estimates (1.598 million vs est 1.700 million)
  • Rise in starts reflective of low existing homes inventory, despite ongoing material shortages and affordability constraints
  • Housing starts increased in the South and West, but declined in the Northeast and Midwest

 

 Macro Brief: Housing Market Index

7.19.2021

NAHB Housing Market Index unexpectedly declines to 80, despite buyer demand remaining high

  • Builder sentiment fell 1 point from 81 to 80, below the consensus (est. 82)
  • Traffic of prospective buyers dropped 6 points to 65
  • West region still leads regionally (87), while the northeast and midwest saw slight declines
  • Low interest rates and limited inventory have fostered buyer demand, but prices continue to rapidly rise

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