ETF Action: Research

Macro Briefs

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Summaries of the day's macroeconomic news reports, as well as weekly reviews including:




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Macro Briefs Archives

 Macroeconomic Review

5.16.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Retail Sales: Unanticipated standstill in retail sales in April despite surging last month 
  • CPI: Headline inflation month/month rises at fastest pace since September 2008
  • JOLTS: Pace of job openings reached highest level on record in March 
  • Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims decline for fifth consecutive week
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts and Fed Releases

 Macro Brief: Retail Sales

5.14.2021

Unanticipated standstill in retail sales in April despite surging last month

  • Headline retail sales were unchanged month/month (est. 1.0%); -0.8% when excluding autos & gas (est. 0.8%)
  • Excluding autos & gas, and the control group also came in below consensus estimates (est. 0.8% and 0.1%)
  • Food services & drinking places were up 116.8% year/year 
  • Pent up demand and regional reopenings will still likely increase sales over the summer months

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

5.13.2021

Weekly initial jobless claims decline for fifth consecutive week 

  • 473K initial claims slightly below consensus estimates (est 475K)
  • Last week's 498K claims revised higher by 9K to 507K
  • Continuing claims decline by 45K to 3.655 million for week ending May 1
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate remains unchanged at 2.6%

 Macro Brief: CPI

5.12.2021

Headline inflation month/month rises at fastest pace since September 2008

  • Headline inflation rises above consensus estimates (est 0.2%)
  • Core inflation below month/month consensus (est 0.3%), but above year/year (est. 2.3%)
  • Record 10% rise in index for used cars and trucks
  • Food index rose with continuing increases in food at home and food away from home

 Macro Brief: JOLTS

5.11.2021

Pace of job openings reached highest level on record in March

  • 8.123 million job openings well above consensus estimates of 7.455 million and pre-pandemic levels (~7 million)
  • Hires moved slightly higher to 6 million while seperations were little changed at 5.3 million
  • Quits were also little changed at 2.4%
  • Layoffs reached a series low 1.5 million (1% rate)

 Macroeconomic Review

5.10.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • ISM Manufacturing: Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in April for the 11th consecutive month
  • U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services: Trade deficit rises 58% year over year to record high in March
  • ISM Services: April ISM Services report decelerates, but still remains in expansion for 11th consecutive month 
  • Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims reach below 500K, which marks the lowest level since last March
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: Jobless Claims, JOLTS, CPI and Retail Sales

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

5.6.2021

Weekly initial jobless claims reach below 500K, which marks the lowest level since last March

  • 498K initial claims decently below consensus estimates (est 533K)
  • Last week's 553K claims revised higher by 37K to 590K
  • Continuing claims rise by 37K to 3.69 million for week ending April 24
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate remains unchanged at 2.6%

 Macro Brief: ISM Services

5.5.2021

April ISM Services report decelerates, but still remains in expansion for 11th consecutive month

  • Services index is 62.7, slightly below last month (63.7) and under consensus estimates (est 64.2)
  • Production and new orders are still growing, but at a slower pace than in March
  • Employment and prices continue to rise at a faster pace
  • 17 industries reported growth in April, led by Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation
  • The only industry reporting a decrease was Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting

 Macro Brief: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services

5.4.2021

Trade deficit rises 58% year over year to record high in March

  • Trade deficit rises by $3.9 billion from a revised $70.5 billion last month
  • Greatest deficit since series began in 1992
  • Exports rise $12.4 billion,Imports rise $16.4 billion
  • Stimulus payments aided rise in consumer spending on imported goods
  • Return to normalcy from pandemic should shift consumer spending back to domestic industries

 Macro Brief: ISM Manufacturing

5.3.2021

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in April for the 11th consecutive month (ISM PMI)

  • ISM PMI fell 4 percentage points to 60.7, below consensus estimates (65.0) 
  • New orders, production and employment growing
  • Both manufacturing and overall economy growing but at a slower pace
  • Prices continue to grow at a faster pace marking an 11th month trend

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