ETF Action: Research

Macro Briefs

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Summaries of the day's macroeconomic news reports, as well as weekly reviews including:




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Macro Briefs Archives

 Macro Brief: ISM Manufacturing

3.1.2021

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in February for the ninth consecutive month (ISM PMI)

  • ISM PMI rises 2.1 points to 60.8, slightly ahead of consensus estimates (68.9) 
  • New orders, production and employment growing
  • Backlog growing as supplier deliveries slowing at a quicker pace
  • Prices continue to grow at a faster pace marking an nine month trend

 Macroeconomic Review

2.28.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • January personal incomes rise 10% month/month after only marginal growth in December
  • Weekly initial jobless claims drop dramatically below 800K
  • January New Home Saleshit three month high; rise above December levels and come in above consensus estimates
  • Consumer confidence rises from January levels and comes in above consensus estimates
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: ISM PMI data, Public Debt Outstanding and more Unemployment reports

 Macro Brief: Personal Income & Outlays

2.26.2021

January personal incomes rise 10% month/month after only marginal growth in December

  • Income growth tops consensus estimates (est. 9.4%)
  • Consumer spending grew 2.4% month/month (est 2.2%)
  • Personal savings rate jumps to 20.5% in January from 13.4% in December
  • Core PCE shows modest rise (+1.5% y/y) but still below the prior 2.0% Fed target, Fed policy will let inflation rise above 2.0% 

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

2.25.2021

Weekly initial jobless claims drop dramatically below 800K

  • 730K initial claims well below consensus estimates (est 815K) and 111K below last week
  • Last week's initial claims revised higher by 55K (to 848K)
  • Continuing claims decreased by 101K to 4.419 million for week ending February 13
  • Largest increases for initial claims were in Illinois, Ohio, and Idaho

 Macro Brief: New Home Sales

2.24.2021

January New Home Saleshit three month high; rise above December levels and come in above consensus estimates

  • New Home Sales came mark 923K (annual rate) vs estimated 855 million
  • 4.3% above December 2020 new home sales and 19.3% above January 2020
  • Median home sales price was $346K
  • Homebuilder ETF Plays: ITB, XHB, HOMZ, NAIL

 Macro Brief: Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2.22.2021

Consumer confidence rises from January levels and comes in above consensus estimates

  • Consumer confidence index marks 91.3, slightly above the estimated (90.0)
  • Present conditions climbed from 85.5 to 92.0
  • Expectations index decreased marginally to 90.8 from 91.2

 Macro Brief: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

2.22.2021

Texas manufacturing expansion accelerates sharply in February

  • The Dallas Fed Production Index jumped from 4.6 to 19.9
  • General activity index rose from 7.0 to 17.2; well ahead of consensus estimates (est. 6.7)
  • New orders, capacity utilization, and shipments all moved higher
  • Expectations regarding future activity reamained positive

 

 Macroeconomic Review

2.22.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Advance estimate for January Retail Sales jumps as consumers spend stimulus checks
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows busines activity growing modestly in February
  • Weekly initial jobless claims change course and rise following four consecutive weekly declines
  • Busy week ahead with releases including Fed surveys, consumer confidence, home sales, and GDP

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

2.17.2021

Weekly initial jobless claims change course and rise following four consecutive weekly declines

  • 861K initial claims above consensus estimates (est 767K)
  • Last week's initial claims revised higher by 55K (to 848K)
  • Continuing claims decreased by 64K to 4.494 million for week ending February 6
  • Over 11.7 million people still claiming Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits or Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation benefits

 Macro Brief: Retail Sales

2.17.2021

Advance estimate for January Retail Sales jump as consumers spend stimulus checks

  • Headline retail sales rose 5.3% month/month (est. 1.1%); 6.1% increase when excluding autos & gas (est. 0.5%)
  • Electronics & appliance stores made largest month/month rise of 14.7%
  • Food services & drinking places down 16.6% year/year but jumped 6.9% as COVID cases/deaths trending lower
  • More stimulus (currently est. $1.9 trillion) and direct payments to Americans may boost sales in months to come

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