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 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

1.20.2022

Initial jobless claims surged to 286K, the highest levels seen since the week of October 16, 2021

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 286K, well above consensus estimates of 207K
  • Continuing claims jumped 84K to 1.64 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate increased just 0.1% to 1.2%
  • 4-week moving average of jobless claims increased to 231.0K

 

 Global Thematic Playbook

1.19.2022

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Continuing the trend seen thus far in 2022, the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) gathered the most net inflows over the past week with $428 million while the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) saw the largest net outflows in the period with $577 million. Year-to-date, KWEB leads global thematics in net inflows with $914 million and ARKK has seen the most net outflows with $663 million
  • Over the past year, Industrial Revolution ETFs are the only thematic segment to post gains on average. Health Innovation and Evolving Consumer ETFs have lagged each segment down nearly 30% on average on the year
  • The worst performing global thematic ETF over the past month is the Direxion mRNA ETF (MSGR) which plunged 25.85%
  • The VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX), which was the top performing thematic ETF in 2021, has climbed 4.75% in the last month

 

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts

1.19.2022

In December, housing starts increased to 1.702 million, above consensus estimates (est. 1.650 million)

  • Home starts rose 1.4% to a nine-month high in December 
  • Permits surged to 1.873 million, well above consensus estimates of 1.710 million
  • Soaring materials prices, supply constraints, and labor shortages have created headwinds
  • Prices for softwood lumber jumped 24.4% in December after rising 6.9% in November
  • According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the aggregate cost of residential construction materials has surged nearly 18% in the last month

 

 U.S. Factor Playbook

1.18.2022

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Momentum/ Growth ETFs have lagged other U.S. Factor strategies in November, December, and thus far in January. Over the past 3 months, Momentum/ Growth ETFs have fallen nearly 4% on average
  • The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) saw the largest net inflows over the past week gathering $364 million
  • The top performing U.S. Factor ETF over the last month has been the Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) which has climbed over 10%

 

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

1.18.2022

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Financials ETFs have gathered over $1.2 billion in net inflows over the past week while Technology ETFs have seen over $400 million in net outflows in the period
  • The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) saw $128 million in outflows over the last week and now has just $425 million in overall assets under management
  • Each of the top 10 best performing U.S. Sector & Industry ETFs over the past month are Energy ETFs. On average, Energy ETFs are up over 17% in the last month
  • The worst performer on the month is the Invesco Dynamic Software ETF (PSJ) which has fallen 10.34%

 Macro Brief: Housing Market Index

1.18.2022

NAHB Housing Market Index declined by one point in January to 83

  • Builder sentiment declined slightly to 83, just below consensus estimates of 84
  • Traffic of prospective buyers fell by 2 points to 69
  • The Northeast region fell 1 point while the West, South, and Midwest all increased by 1
  • Lumber prices remain high amid sustained demand in addition to supply chain disruptions caused by recent wildfires in the U.S. and the Canadian lumber tariff

 

 Macro Brief: Producer Price Index (PPI)

1.13.2022

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 9.7% year-over-year in December, the largest increase on record which dates back to 2010

  • Headline and Core PPI rose by 0.2% and 0.5% month/month, respectively
  • After stripping out energy and food prices, core PPI rose 8.3% year/year
  • Final demand services rose 0.5%, the 12th straight monthly increase
  • The hakwish Federal Reserve continues to monitor inflation as it looks to tighten its balance sheet, especially after consumer inflation reached 40-year highs according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports released on Wednesday

 Macro Brief: CPI

1.12.2022

Headline inflation month/month rose 0.5% in December, just above consensus estimates, but increased 7% year/ year

  • Headline inflation increased 0.5% above consensus estimates of 0.4%. Year-over-year, headline inflation was up 7%, the largest increase since 1982
  • Core inflation climbed 0.6% month/month, above estimates of 0.5%. Year-over-year, core inflation increased 5.5%, the largest increase since 1991
  • Indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks saw substantial increases 
  • Energy index declined, ending a streak of monthly increases, as gas and natural gas prices fell
  • Food index rose just 0.5%

 

 Global Thematic Playbook

1.12.2022

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) saw significantly more net inflows than any other global thematic ETF over the past week gathering $373 million. The 2nd highest net inflows in the period was the Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (META) which saw $41 million in net inflows
  • On average, all thematic segments have posted declined thus far in January 2022. Health Innovation ETFs have plunged 7.65% on average in the month
  • Only two Global Thematic ETFs have gained over 2% in the past month. The First Trust Indxx Innovative Transaction & Process ETF (LEGR), a Blockchain ETF, added 4.58% in the period while the Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) gained 2.21%

 

 U.S. Factor Playbook

1.11.2022

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Value ETFs have outperformed other U.S. Factor ETFs over the past month climbing 3.34%, on average. Dividend ETFs were not far behind adding 2.81% on average in the period 
  • Amid recent outperformance of the S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF (RPG), the S&P 500 Pure Value ETF (RPV) gathered nearly $100 million in net inflows over the past week. Thus far in 2022, RPV has outpaced RPG by over 10%
  • The top performing U.S. Factor ETF over the last month has been the First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund (FDL, +8.00%)

 

 Macroeconomic Review

1.11.2022

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • ISM Manufacturing Index: The December Manufacturing PMI fell 2.4% to 58.7%
  • Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS): Job openings fell to 10.6 million while the quits rate increased 3% and hires stands at 6.7 million
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report: U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels last week while Gasoline and Distillate inventories saw sizeable increases
  • Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims increased to 207K slightly above consensus estimates of 205K
  • ISM Services Index: The Services PMI surpassed 60% for the 10th consecutive month
  • Employment SituationDecember Employment Situation disappointed as Nonfarm payrolls were well below estimates, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%

 

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

1.10.2022

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • The Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) saw nearly $1.4 billion in net inflows over the past week while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) gathered $1.1 billion in net inflows
  • Energy ETFs have surged over 8% on average thus far in 2022. Technology ETFs and Health Care ETFs have lagged in the period, down over 5% 
  • The worst performing U.S. Sector & Industry ETF over the past month has been the Credit Suisse S&P MLP Index ETN (MLPO) which has fallen over 16%
  • The top performer in the last month has been the InfraCap MLP ETF (AMZA) which has added 11.79%

 

 

 

 Macro Brief: Employment Situation

1.7.2022

December Employment Situation disappointed as Nonfarm payrolls were well below estimates, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 199K in November, significantly below consensus estimates of 400K
  • Unemployment rate fell for the third consecutive month to 3.9%
  • Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, manufacturing construction, and transportation all saw healthy gains
  • Participation rate increasd slightly to 61.9% in the month
  • The number of employed persons that teleworked due to the coronavirus pandemic was little changed at 11.1%

 

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

1.6.2022

Initial jobless claims increased to 207K slightly above consensus estimates of 205K

  • Initial jobless claims rose to 207K from 198K the previous week and were above consensus estimates of 205K
  • Continuing claims fell rose 36K to 1.75 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate was unchanged from previous levels at 1.3%
  • 4-week moving average of jobless claims increased to 204.5K

 

 Macro Brief: EIA Petroleum Status Report

1.5.2022

U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 2.1 million barrels last week while Gasoline and Distillate inventories saw sizeable increases

  • At 417.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the 5-year average for this time of year
  • Gasoline inventories rose by 10.1 million barrels
  • Distillate inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels 
  • Price have begun to rise as production increases, especially for gasoline

 

 Global Thematic Playbook

1.5.2022

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • The Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (META) led Global Thematic ETFs in net inflows over the past week, gathering $41 million. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) saw the largest net outflows in the period seeing $202 million
  • All thematic segments posted losses on average in December 2021. FinTech ETFs plunged nearly 15% on average in the period, significantly underperforming other thematic segments
  • The Defiance Digital Revolution ETF (NFTZ), which launched on December 1, 2021, was the worst performer over the last month declining 16.37%
  • Despite recent Omicron related travel woes around the globe, the ETFMG Travel Tech ETF (AWAY) posted gains of 8.51% over the past month

 

 

 

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

1.4.2022

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) led other U.S. Sector & Industry ETFs in net inflows over the past week gathering $456 million while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) and the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) saw net outflows of $415 million and $374 million in the period
  • On average, all U.S. Sector ETFs saw gains in December with Consumer Staples and Real Estate ETFs both jumping over 9% on the month
  • The best performer over the past month was the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) which surged over 14% despite the recent surge in COVID-19 cases in the country

 

 Macroeconomic Review

1.4.2022

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • House Price Index: Housing prices rose 1.1% in October nationwide and increased 17.4% from October 2020
  • Pending Home Sales: Pending home sales fell 2.2% in November, all regions saw declines month-over-month
  • Jobless Claims: In the week ended December 25, initial jobless claims fell slightly to 198,000

 

 U.S. Factor Playbook

1.4.2022

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Momentum/ Growth ETFs gained just 1.52% in December on average and trailed all other U.S. Factor strategy ETFs. Dividend ETFs and Low Volatility ETFs returned over 6% on average while Value ETFs, Size ETFs, and Quality ETFs gained over 5% on average on the month 
  • Over the past year,  Dividend ETFs gathered over $36 billion in net inflows. Size ETFs saw over $10 billion and Value ETFs saw over $9 billion in net inflows in the period
  • The iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE) was the best performing U.S. Factor ETF over the last month adding nearly 8%. The Cabot Growth ETF (CBTG) continues to lag, declining nearly 5% on the month
  • S&P 500 Low Volatility (SPLV) currently sits well above its 50-Day and 200-Day moving averages

 

 Global Thematic Playbook

12.22.2021

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Despite notching the 3rd worst year-to-date performance amongst all non-leverged ETFs (-47.99%), KWEB has gathered an astonishing $7.8 billion in net inflows in 2021. That is nearly $3 billion more than any other global thematic ETF in the period (ARKK saw the 2nd most net inflows with $4.9 billion)
  • The top 2 performing global thematic ETFs in 2021 have been the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX, +68.05%) and the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT, +32.98%), both of which are Industrial Revolution ETFs
  • 10 Blockchain ETFs have launched so far this year. Blockchain ETFs have noticeably lagged recently with 3 (BTCRBKCHDAPP) down over 30% and 5 (SATOCRPTRIGZBITQBLOK) down over 20% over the past month

 

 

 Macro Brief: Conference Board Consumer Confidence

12.22.2021

After a modest increase in November, Consumer Confidence rose again in December to 115.8

  • Consumer confidence index rose to 115.8 in December, well above the consensus (est 110.7)
  • Present Situation Index declined slightly to 144.4
  • Expectations Index increased to 96.9 from 90.2
  • Expected spending for homes, automobiles and major appliances all rose as consumer confidence increased

 

 U.S. Factor Playbook

12.21.2021

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Momentum/ Growth ETFs have continued to lag other U.S. Factor strategies, down 8.53% over the past month and down 1.68% over the past 3 months, on average
  • The Global Beta Low Beta ETF (GBLO) has been the top performing U.S. Factor ETF over the last month, climbing 4.5%, while the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) has been the worst performer in the period, down 16.45%
  • S&P 500 Value (SPVU) now sits just above its 200-day moving average, but is well below its 50-day moving average

 

 

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

12.20.2021

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Technology ETFs and Health Care ETFs gathered $2.2 billion and $1.1 billion in net inflows over the past week, respectively. Utilities ETFs were the only U.S. Sector ETFs to see net outflows in the period
  • The SPDR S&P Retail ETF saw $301 million in net inflows over the past week. XRT now has below $800 million in assets under management
  • In the last month, Consumer Discretionary and Energy ETFs are down over 7%, on average
  • The SPDR S&P Internet ETF (XWEB) plunged over 18% over the last month. Despite being up over 56% year-to-date, the Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF (PSCE) fell nearly 13% in the past month 

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts

12.16.2021

In November, housing starts rose above consensus estimates to 1.679 million

  • Home starts increased 11.8% in November to 1.679 million (est 1.563)
  • Permits increased to 1.712 million, above the consensus of 1.655 million
  • Materials and labor shortages continue to persist in addition to a shortage of properties for sale nationwide
  • While both have fallen from pandemic highs, copper and lumber remain expensive

 

 Macro Brief: Retail Sales

12.15.2021

Retail sales rose but were below expectations in November

  • Headline retail sales increased month/month by just 0.3% below estimates of 0.8%
  • Excluding autos & gas rose by 0.2%, well below consensus estimates (est. +0.8%)
  • Gasoline stations were up 52.8% year/year
  • Retail sales continue to rise as the holiday season approached but inflationary pressures persist

 

 

 U.S. Factor Playbook

12.15.2021

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • All U.S. Factor ETFs, on average, are down over the past month with Momentum/ Growth ETFs plummeting over 7%
  • Size ETFs saw $450 million in net outflows over the past week, Quality ETFs were the lone factor strategy to see net inflows in the period
  • The Cabot Growth ETF (CBTG) has plunged over 20% in the past month. The top performer in the period has been the S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) which has inched up by just 2.59% on the month
  • SPLV is also well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages

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