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 U.S. Size & Style Playbook

9.27.2021

An overview of the broad U.S. Size & Style ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Growth sees net outflows across all sizes; over $1.5 billion flow out of large-cap growth 
  • Mid Cap Growth leading in September performance but still down 0.75% MTD
  • Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (MGV -2.12%) lagging all size & style ETFs over past month
  • Small caps hold above their 200 day moving average amid recent sell off

 Macroeconomic Review

9.26.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • Housing Market Index: NAHB Housing Market Index slightly rises to 76, as lumber prices begin to fall
  • Housing Starts and Permits: Housing starts rise in August, but labor and material shortages present ongoing obstacles
  • Jobless Claims: Initial claims hit monthly peak at 351K
  • New Home Sales: August New Home Sales unexpectedly rise, but may have hit its peak
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: Jobless Claims, Fed Releases, Pending Home Sales, PMI and GDP 

 Macro Brief: New Home Sales

9.24.2021

August New Home Sales unexpectedly rise, but may have hit its peak

  • New Home Sales increase to an annual rate of 740K vs estimated 708K
  • Median home sales price is unchanged at $390.9K
  • Sales fall by 24.3% on year/year basis
  • Homebuilder ETF Plays: ITB, XHB, HOMZ, NAIL

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

9.23.2021

Initial claims hit monthly peak at 351K

  • 351K initial claims above consensus estimates (est. 309K)
  • Continuing claims rise by 131K to 2.845 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate slightly rises to 2.1%
  • 4-week moving average increases to 335.75K

 Global Thematic Playbook

9.22.2021

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Notable net inflows for Global Thematic ETFs from the past week include the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), which gathered $252 million, and the ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN), which added $93 million
  • Fintech ETFs are down 7.51% thus far in September as Blockchain ETFs dragged performance 
  • Health Innovation ETFs led other thematic segments over the past month, bolstered by solid gains from Biotech and Cancer Immunotherapy ETFs
  • The Loncar Cancer Immunotherapy ETF (CNCR) has been the top performer over the last month, climbing nearly 12%, while the ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) is up almost 10% and the Virtus LifeSci Biotech Clinical Trials ETF (BBC) returned +8.67%
  • Despite continued COVID-19 related travel restrictions around the globe, the ETFMG Travel Tech ETF (AWAY) is up an impressive 10.64% in the past month

 

 Macro Brief: Housing Starts

9.21.2021

Housing starts rose in August, but labor and material shortages present ongoing obstacles

  • Home starts increased to an annual rate of 1.615 million (est. 1.575 million)
  • Permits increased M/M and were slightly above consensus estimates (1.728 million vs est 1.610 million)
  • Lumber prices finally began to decline, but the impact has yet to hit homebuilders
  • Housing starts increased in the South, Northeast and Midwest, but fell in the West

 U.S. Factor Playbook

9.21.2021

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • All U.S. Factor strategies are down more than 3% month-to-date as markets trudge through September
  • Dividend ETFs pulled in another $1.1 billion in net inflows over the past week bringing its 3-month net inflows to over $6.5 billion
  • The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY), a Growth/ Momentum ETF, once again outpaced other U.S. Factor ETFs gaining 8.65% over the past month. FFTY is up 36.50% in the last year

 

 

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

9.20.2021

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Technology ETFs led net inflows over the past week pulling in over $2 billion. Energy ETFs, which have outperformed other sector ETFs year-to-date on average, also gathered $758 million in net inflows last week
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) saw sizeable net outflows ($339 million) for the second consecutive week. XBI has seen nearly $1 billion in net outflows over the past 3 months
  • The Invesco DWA Energy Momentum ETF (PXI) was the top performer in the past month climbing 17.75%. PXI is up over 93% in the past one year

 

 

 Macro Brief: Housing Market Index

9.20.2021

NAHB Housing Market Index slightly rises to 76, as lumber prices begin to fall

  • Builder sentiment rose 1 point from 75 to 76, above the consensus (est. 75)
  • Traffic of prospective buyers increased 2 points to 61
  • West region still leads regionally (83), while the Northeast and South saw declines
  • Material costs finally began to fall, primarily for softwood lumber

 

 Macroeconomic Review

9.19.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • CPI: Headline inflation month/month rose less than expected in August by 0.3%
  • EIA Petroleum Status Report: Crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels last week, as prices rebounded
  • Retail Sales: Retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, despite increasing COVID-19 delta variant cases 
  • Consumer Sentiment: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slightly rebounded in September, but hovered near record lows
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: Jobless Claims, Fed Releases, Housing Starts and Permits 

 Macro Brief: Consumer Sentiment

9.17.2021

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment slightly rebounds in September, but hovers near record lows

  • Overall sentiment rose to 71.0, but below expectations (est. 72.0)
  • Current conditions declined to 77.1, while expectations increased to 67.1
  • Current economic conditions remains above consumer expectations 
  • Rising cases of the Covid-19 delta variant were likely responsible for consumer's emotional response

 

 Macro Brief: Retail Sales

9.16.2021

Retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, despite increasing COVID-19 delta variant cases 

  • Headline retail sales increased month/month by 0.7% (est. -0.8%)
  • Excluding autos & gas rose by 2.0%, above consensus estimates (est. -0.3%)
  • Clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 38.8% year/year
  • An increase in online shopping and back-to-school sales helped fuel the increase

 

 Global Thematic Playbook

9.15.2021

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Sustainability ETFs have gathered nearly $13 billion in net inflows over the past year, making it the third largest thematic segment
  • The ARK suite of ETFs saw net outflows over the past past week, the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) saw $242 million, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) saw $143 million, and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) saw $104 million
  • Disruptive Tech ETFs and Health Innovation ETFs each gained over 2% in the past month and outperformed other thematic segments
  • Cannabis was the worst performing thematic group over the past month as 7 Cannabis ETFs posted double digit declines in the period. The worst performers were the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) and the Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX) which dropped 16.22% and 15.16%, respectively

 

 Macro Brief: EIA Petroleum Status Report

9.15.2021

Crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels last week as prices rebounded

  • Crude oil inventories were 7% less than average
  • Gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels
  • Distillate inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels 
  • More cases of the coronavirus delta variant and Hurricane Ida damage may cause demand to fluctuate

 

 U.S. Factor Playbook

9.14.2021

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Despite declining 1.71% thus far in September, Value ETFs are up nearly 25% year-to-date and have, on average, outperformed other U.S. Factor Strategies in the period
  • Quality ETFs saw $626 million in net outflows over the past week as other U.S. Factor Strategies saw relatively muted net flows
  • The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) was the top performer over the past month, returning 5.60% 
  • Low Volatility (SPLV) continues to trail SPY over the trailing 12-month period while Value (SPVU) and Dividend (SPYD) have notably outperformed

 Macro Brief: CPI

9.14.2021

Headline inflation month/month rises less than expected in August by 0.3%

  • Headline inflation below consensus 0.4%
  • Core inflation was only 0.1% month/month and was below consensus (est. 0.3%)
  • The index for used cars and trucks fell 1.5%, a key inflation indicator
  • Food index rose with continuing increases in food at home and food away from home

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

9.13.2021

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Financials ETFs, which gained over 4% in August, saw over $1.4 billion in net outflows over the past week while Real Estate ETFs gathered another $999 million in net inflows in the period
  • Despite being up over 4% over the past month, the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) saw $442 million in next outflows last week. XBI is down 6.41% thus far in 2021
  • The iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF (IHI) has gained 5.47% over the past month and has risen 21.25% year-to-date

 

 

 U.S. Size & Style Playbook

9.13.2021

An overview of the broad U.S. Size & Style ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Large Cap, Beta ETFs saw $1.73 billion in net inflows over the past week and have gathered over $51 billion in net inflows in the past 3 months
  • All Size & Style categories are down thus far in September after each seeing gains in August
  • The SPDR S&P 600 SmallCap Value ETF (SLYV) has been the worst performer in the past month, declining 3.24%. However, SLYV remains up nearly 22.5% year-to-date

 

 Macroeconomic Review

9.12.2021

Major macroeconomic releases for the prior and upcoming weeks accompanied by historical macroeconomic data and chart books

  • JOLTS: Job openings reached record high 10.934 million in July
  • Jobless Claims: Initial claims continued to decline and fell to 310K
  • Macroeconomic releases in the week ahead: Jobless Claims, CPI, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 

 Macro Brief: Jobless Claims

9.9.2021

Initial claims continue to decline and fall to 310K

  • 310K initial claims below consensus estimates (est. 350K)
  • Continuing claims fall by 22K to 2.783 million
  • Advance adjusted insured unemployment rate unchanged at 2.0%
  • 4-week moving average decreases to 339.5K

 U.S. Factor Playbook

9.8.2021

An overview of the U.S. Factor ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Momentum/ Growth ETFs increased by nearly 2% over the past month while Low Volatility ETFs gained 1.1%
  • Dividend ETFs have seen nearly $7 billion in net inflows over the past 3 months and over $32 billion in net inflows over the past year
  • The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) was the top performing U.S. Factor ETF over the past month, surging 9.51%

 

 Macro Brief: JOLTS

9.8.2021

Pace of job openings reached record high 10.934 million in July

  • 10.934 million job openings above consensus of 10.000 million
  • June data revised higher from 10.073 million to 10.185 million
  • Hires unchanged at 6.7 million, while seperations slightly increased to 5.8 million
  • Quits stayed the same at 2.7%
  • Layoffs slightly increased to 1.0%

 Global Thematic Playbook

9.8.2021

An overview of the Global Thematic ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Evolving Consumer ETFs saw $600 million in net inflows over the past week and nearly $11 billion in the past year
  • The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) continued to see massive net inflows last week, gathering nearly $900 billion
  • Fintech ETFs surged 9.30% in August 2021 followed by Healthcare Innovation ETFs (+4.41%) and Disruptive Tech ETFs (+4.18%)
  • The Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ) was the top performing Global Thematic ETF over the past month, climbing 13.24%

 

 U.S. Sector & Industry Playbook

9.7.2021

An overview of the U.S. Sector ETF landscape - Performance, Flows, Valuations, Earnings, & Technicals.

  • Real Estate ETFs saw over $1.5 billion in net inflows over the past week while Industrials ETFs saw $530 million in net outflows
  • Real Estate ETFs have climbed 4% over the past month, followed by Technology ETFs (+3.50%) and Financials ETFs (+3.36%)
  • The SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) has been the top performing ETF over the past month rocketing 7.51%
  • Meanwhile, the S&P S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) has been the worst performing ETF over the past month, sinking 5.07%

 

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